Cambria Automobiles Share Discussion Threads

[mortimer7] 04/7/2019 09:17

SMMT have issued the new car registration unit numbers for June 2019 this morning, which shows a 4.9% drop compared to June 2018. Total 223,421 versus 234,945.
Also at half year stage 2019 is down 3.4% versus 2018.
Considering Brexit was due to happen in March, didn't & then the delays, plus WLTP & all the other stuff going on, I don't think this is too bad.

[mortimer7] 12/6/2019 16:06

Terrible RNS from Pendragon this morning. Problems of their own making. Their failings could well prove beneficial to other listed dealers in the short/medium term. Although
today, everyones share price seems to be suffering a knock on effect.

[mortimer7] 05/6/2019 09:13

SMMT have issued the new car registration unit numbers for May 2019 this morning, which shows a 4.6% dip compared to May 2018. Total 183,724 versus 192,649.
"underlying economic and political instability continues to affect consumer and business confidence".

[jaf111] 09/5/2019 10:22

Agreed Mortimer....the 30% increase in average profit per unit pretty striking....and this should only be the start

[davebowler] 09/5/2019 10:19

Zeus;
EPS upgrades
Cambria has delivered robust H1 2019 performance, which was ahead of our forecast at the adjusted PBT level (£5.5m vs. ZC £5.3m). We update our forecasts to reflect this outperformance and now expect adj. PBT for the full year of £11.0m (vs. £9.9m previously). Organic earnings upgrades in this sector are rare at present, and we believe this is down to the strong execution in reshaping the portfolio towards the premium/luxury brands. We remain confident in Cambria’s ability to deliver strong shareholder value from here.

§ H1 results: Cambria has delivered a H1 adjusted PBT of £5.5m, which is slightly ahead of our £5.3m forecast and is +14.6% YOY. Revenues were +4.5% YOY while gross margins fell slightly by 30bps to 11.6% as a result of higher transaction prices in both new and used. During the period the Group generated an operating cash inflow of £10.9m (H1 2018: £5.8m). Net debt at the end of the period was £3.2m up from £0.4m in H1 2018. The balance sheet remains robust with net assets of £60.6m, underpinned by £69.7m of freehold and long leasehold property, or £78m including post period end investments.

§ Key drivers: New vehicle revenue decreased by 0.6% to £133.5m (H1 2018: £134.3m) with price increases offsetting a 23.4% (19.4% on a LFL basis) decline in sales volumes. The new vehicle gross profit margin was flat YoY at 7.2% and there was a £0.1m reduction in gross profit (£0.9m on a LFL basis). Revenues in the used car segment increased by 8.7% to £143.1m (H1 2018: £131.6m) whilst the number of units sold decreased by 8.9%. The gross profit on used vehicles increased by 1.7% to £12m (H1 2018: £11.8m), with the profit per unit sold increasing by 11.3%. Aftersales revenue was up 6.5% YoY (or 2.7%on a LFL basis) to £37.5m (H1 2018: £35.2m), and the related gross profit increased to £14.2m (H1 2018: £13.7m).

§ Forecasts: We update our full year forecasts to reflect the outperformance achieved in H1. We now expect adj. PBT in 2019E of £11.0m, implying £5.5m in for the second half vs. £5.0m delivered last year. We also update our cash flow assumptions to reflect updated guidance on capex, we now expect net debt at the year-end of £15.8m, going to £16.7m in 2020E, reflecting the higher levels of investment in key value enhancing developments such as the Brentwood and Solihull projects.

§ Investment view: We remain confident in the Cambria story longer term, and believe it remains well positioned to deliver £1bn+ of revenue over the medium term. As we are seeing across the sector at present, near term valuation multiples are depressed, and the current market capitalisation of the Group remains at odds with the >£80m invested freehold asset base. The changes to the portfolio as they mature should be exciting in our view.

[mortimer7] 09/5/2019 10:01

Their progressive strategy to rebalance their franchises to the high end vehicle sector already being vindicated. Lower units sales, but PPU & subsequent GP far higher.

[jaf111] 09/5/2019 07:09

Really happy with these results..... often commented that motor dealers pretty similar.....this is certainly NOT the case as CAMB show again what a very good team they have......

“Cambria Automobiles plc (AIM: CAMB), the franchised motor retailer, is pleased to announce its unaudited interim results for the six months ended 28 February 2019, which show that the Group has performed ahead of the prior year and ahead of management's expectations. The Group has continued to deliver on its Brand portfolio and property strategies in the period. Based on the results of the first half and the March performance, the Board expects that performance for the full financial year will be ahead of current market expectations.”

[mortimer7] 08/5/2019 10:11

Results day tomorrow.

[mortimer7] 04/4/2019 09:30

SMMT issued the new car registration unit figures this morning for the crucial new plate month of March 2019.

Total number of units registered was 458,054 a small decrease of 3.4% compared to 474,069 units in March 2018.

SMMT citing political uncertainty, ongoing brexit and Diesel issues as reasons for the Y on Y reduction.

[jaf111] 06/3/2019 10:29

Agreed Mortimer7
As I said previously I am especially liking the improvement in margins....this should auger well for the future

[mortimer7] 06/3/2019 10:17

In the context of other motor retailers, todays trading update is excellent IMO.
Also goes a long way towards explaining why Cambrias share price has performed so well versus the likes of Vertu in recent months.
Aftersales bearing the fruits of increased vehicle sales over the years leading up to 2018. Used Cars having improved profit per unit. New cars also enjoying higher profit vindicating their strategic move to rebalance their franchise portfolio towards prestige marques as opposed to volume.

[mortimer7] 05/3/2019 09:15

SMMT New car registration figures are out this morning for the month of February 2019.
Total number of units registered was 81,969 a small increase of 1.4% compared to February 2018.

[mortimer7] 05/2/2019 15:14

New car registration figures are out this morning for the month of January 2019.
Total number of units registered was 161,013 a small reduction of 1.6% compared to the figure of 163,615 in January 2018.
Within those figures the Private Buyer % was actually up 2.9%.

SMMT comments were upbeat..."It’s encouraging to see car registrations in January broadly on par with a year ago as the latest high tech models and deals attracted buyers into showrooms".

Indications are that large listed dealers are increasing their GP %'s with new car short supply problems and greater focus on used vehicles & aftersales.

Also light van regns for January are up 8.6% year on year.

[mortimer7] 07/1/2019 09:17

New car registration figures are out this morning for the month of December 2018.
Total number regd was 144,089 a reduction of 5.5% compared to the figure of 152,473 in December 2017.

[jaf111] 04/1/2019 16:24

Indeed...some improvement in margins which certainly augers well if it can be maintained!

[effortless cool] 04/1/2019 08:01

Interesting AGM update from Cambria Automobiles (LON:CAMB) today.



• New vehicle sales down 24.9% (down 21.0% LFL), but gross margins up.
• Used vehicle sales down 10.5% (down 2,9% LFL), but gross margins up.
• Aftersales up 1.9% (up 2,6% LFL), and gross margins up.

Overall trading in line with expectations and ahead of the same stage last year.

Their strategy of investing in improving their brand mix appears to be paying off handsomely and it looks to me like they will emerge from this difficult period for car dealerships a better quality business than they were going into it.

[mortimer7] 05/12/2018 09:22

New car registration figures are out this morning for the month of November 2018.
Total number regd was 158,639 a reduction of 3% compared to the figure of 163,541 in November 2017.
SMMT Commented "Model and regulatory changes combined with falling consumer confidence conspired to affect supply and demand in November. The good news is that, as supply constraints ease, and new exciting models come on sale in the months ahead, buyers can look forward to a wide choice of cutting-edge petrol, diesel and electrified cars".

[davebowler] 21/11/2018 15:50

Zeus;
Adj. EPS +4.6% ahead, on track
Cambria has delivered a robust FY 2018 performance, in the context of a challenging new car market, which was ahead of our forecasts at the adjusted EPS level by +4.6%. We are maintaining our estimates on the back of these results, which we see as a positive outcome given market conditions. We also remain confident in the medium-term investment case, the company has a strong balance sheet with the successful addition of luxury brands and potentially more to come.

§ Final results: Cambria has delivered a FY adjusted PBT of £9.8m, which compares to our forecast of £9.5m and is -13.3% YOY. We see this as a strong performance in the context of a challenging market and operational disruption as sites were closed for re-development during the period. The franchise portfolio has been enhanced through the addition of three High Luxury Segment brands (McLaren, Bentley and Lamborghini), added to the portfolio with no goodwill. Interest costs were £0.3m higher than we forecast, which partially offset the outperformance against forecasts. Adjusted EPS was -14.7% YOY and 4.6% ahead of our forecast, with the dividend in line with our forecast of 1.0p which was flat YOY.

§ Key drivers: New vehicle revenue was -5.9% YOY, at £290.6m vs. £308.7m last year. This was a good performance in the context of a -17.1% drop in sales volumes. This was offset by a +1.2% increase in gross profit per unit, reflecting a strengthening mix from the business additions which sell at higher price points. Used revenue was up 1.1% YoY despite a 6.9% decline in the volume of units sold, which was partly driven by closures. The gross profit increased £1.1m in absolute terms to £24.6m, as the profit per unit increased 11.6%. Aftersales revenue increased by 1.5% to £72.5m or +4.1% on a LFL basis, with gross profit improving 5.7% to £26.8m, which was a £1.4m positive movement.

§ Forecasts: We leave our forecasts unchanged. Clearly trading headwinds remain across the sector and uncertainty is likely to continue into 2019. Supply challenges in new, political uncertainty in the UK and the impact of Brexit are all likely to be key drivers of the 2019E performance. We introduce our 2021E forecasts, building in a £0.3m growth in adj. PBT from 2020E levels. Based on our forecasts, the FCF yield builds to 15% - 16% by 2020E – 2021E as capex trends normalise under benign conditions following intense recent activity.

§ Valuation: While trading conditions clearly remain difficult, we remain confident in the Cambria story longer term, and believe it remains well positioned to deliver £1bn+ of revenue over the medium term. As we are seeing across the sector at present, near term valuation multiples are depressed, and the current market capitalisation of the Group remains at odds with the >£80m invested freehold asset base. Management are aligned with the shareholder base, with significant shareholdings, and are well positioned to continue to deliver value.

[mortimer7] 20/11/2018 15:21

Results Tomorrow... "The Group will announce its Preliminary Results for the year to 31 August 2018 on 21 November 2018"

[davidosh] 05/11/2018 10:51

I a note from the brokers today...

Valuation: Whilst we expect trading conditions to continue to be challenging in the near term, we believe the sector valuation for the UK car dealers is attractive on what we consider to be cautious and below consensus estimates across our coverage universe (Cambria, Lookers, Vertu and Marshall Motor Holdings). In general, balance sheet strength across the sector is robust, and we are likely to see further consolidation activity as smaller operators become more distressed in our view. We also see potential for further overseas interest in the UK dealer sector given current valuations. It would not surprise us to see some take over interest from the large US motor groups into the UK PLC’s given such valuations, especially if sterling did weaken further from here.

[mortimer7] 05/11/2018 09:10

New car registration figures are out this morning for the month of October 2018.
Total number regd was 153,599 a reduction of 2.9% compared to the figure of 158,192 in October 2017.
SMMT Commented "Deliveries fell by -2.9% in the month, as model changes and backlogs at test houses conducting tough new WLTP emissions certification continued to cause shortages across some brands"