Cambium Global Timberland Share Discussion Threads

[cymbelline] 26/6/2003 09:31

From Tom Hougard (rest on Day thread, Jay206 post 79)

There is a clear misconception today that the market sold off due to the interest rate cut. That is not the case. The reason why the Dow got smacked after the rate decision was because of the big re-weighting programs that are due to take place at month-end in the US. It was leaked last night that this re-balancing of the Russel 3000 and other indices would mean that several big cap stocks were "for sale" at the close of Monday night. What the big investment houses did last night was to front run these orders by shorting the market.

[cymbelline] 26/6/2003 09:04

GF

Glad I saw your post last night and closed short after all, or I'd have got up to no profit and possibly a loss. (So I take it all back :-)) Do you reckon it might carry on up from here or are you still looking at 8945 area for a long?

[paulismyname] 26/6/2003 08:43

YF, theape, what I actually said about Freddie was if the accounts were understated (last Sunday) leading to greater profits than booked it would natuarlly be a long from Monday, and yesterday after the AFX was released (assuming you had closed your position booking profits from long position) I thought it "might" be a stock to monitor for a short if and when interest rates increase. Those thoughts were based on the use of derivatives both inflating and erroding profit margins. Just an opinion of course

[euro99] 26/6/2003 05:49

well I'm back full time now... the sun is shining, the trade winds are blowing, my biggest AIM investmnet will either tank or fly by the weekend... so it's time to short!!!

My only concern is the bradley date on the 2nd... back up to a lower high as a perfect short entry, or the end of a correction?

[goodfella] 26/6/2003 05:20

Captain

Anyone who has followed my posts over time knows that I will always try to help if I can even and spend some considerable time trying to point people in the right direction.

I am extremely busy at the moment as my company is launching a joint venture with a FTSE 100 company so time is limited.

On previous occassions I would have used gentle persuasion in the case of Hughey7 HVS and PIMN but some people are beyond help because their arrogance does not allow them to enter into reasoned debate and quite frankly those 3 are clueless and lack the ability anyway.

I am having some right ding dongs on the SELL thread but the guys on there are very intelligent and although I might disagree I respect their opinions as they contain valid and debatable points and they put a great del of though into their posts.

But in the case of our resident muppets on here, they are a lost cause and I really do not have time to give them a break.

You often find with peole like them who have nothing to offer are simply craving attention and the best thing to do is ignore them and if everyone had them on filter they would simply go away.

This thread is descending into a slanging match and we have already lost Indalo and the purpose of the thread to exchange short ideas is almost defunct.

I am starting to lose interest myself

[theape] 26/6/2003 01:08

Expect downgrades in propoerty co's.

SLOU & LII spring to mind.

LONDON (AFX) - The UK financial system remains "fundamentally sound" with
fewer signs of financial fragility than six months ago even though the overall
economic situation has worsened, the Bank of England said.
"Despite some deterioration in economic prospects over the past six months,
there are now fewer signs of financial fragility than there were last autumn,"
BoE said in its Financial Stability Review.
The review is published twice a year and measures the risks to financial
stability and steps taken to strengthen the financial infrastructure.
"Market indicators of credit risk have tended to fall and asset prices on
the whole have been less volatile," the review found.
If the world economy picks up as projected - the outlook for the UK banking
system is "broadly reassuring," it said
BoE Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Andrew Large said: "Credit
spreads have declined markedly and the heightened concerns about corporate
credit risk evident in autumn 2002 appear to have abated."
This is due in part to efforts to restructure balance sheets, and also the
low level of interest rates, which has reduced cash debt service requirements
for corporate, household and sovereign borrowers, he added.
"But low interest rates, and plentiful liquidity, may also have encouraged a
'search for yield' with some investors as a result shifting their portfolios
towards riskier assets," Large said.
In fact, the decline in credit spreads may in part reflect such shifts
rather than a genuine reduction in credit risk. The implications of this 'search
for yield' for the overall distribution of risks in the financial system would
seem to merit further investigation and additional vigilance, he said.
But banking systems, with one or two exceptions, "have continued to show
considerable resilience. For the most part capital ratios remain comfortable;
and in the UK, as in several other developed countries, profitability has been
maintained," Large said.
Among UK corporates, capital gearing has stopped rising - although still
high by historical standards, the review said.
But one exception are property investment companies in the commercial
property sector - where gearing is high. "Such rapid growth may pose risk
management challenges for the lenders," the review said.
Overall, however, "despite weak profitability, the rate of corporate
liquidations and various other indicators of corporate distress are still
relatively modest," it said.
Rises in capital spending in the first quarter and the pick up in bank
borrowing since the middle of 2002 may be nascent signs that the adjustment in
the sector is nearing completion. "In addition, on most measures, corporate
liquidity is around record levels," it added.
Looking ahead, weaker than expected economic growth may affect the health of
the corporate sector, it said.
The direct risk to the financial system from household lending " will
probably remain relatively small unless there are sharp increases in
unemployment or interest rates," the review said.
The bigger risk in the UK is more indirect in nature - if a slowdown in
disposable income growth pressures households to lower the level of debt they
feel is sustainable, it said.
"If this happened, reductions in gearing by households might amplify any
weakness in aggregate demand - and credit risk might indirectly as a result,"
the review said.
So far, in the UK, mortgage equity withdrawal has risen rapidly but because
of house price increases, the equity remaining in residential property has
continued to rise, it added.
BoE's Large said: " Household sector debt-to-income ratios have continued to
increase, notably in the USA and the UK. There may have been over-borrowing in
some cases, but there are few signs of a general weakening in household credit
quality. Losses on lending to households have generally remained small."
"Looking ahead, the health of financial intermediaries will clearly depend
critically on how far the projected modest pick up in global economic activity
actually materialises," he concluded.

[theape] 26/6/2003 01:04

you may be right.

I'm perplexed at the lack of PPT this last week though.

they sort of want it lower.

very strange. stops on and all.

[jpeterki] 26/6/2003 01:02

Anyway, back to bed, good luck tommorrow

[theape] 26/6/2003 01:00

re Corus-

dont know.

bizzarely I feel the Fed has taken the right approach.

which will be good for the economy but bad for stocks short term.

alaso expectiong some capital investment/ employment tax breaks to sweeten the small rate cut.

but a personal opinion only I wouldn't trade it. but miners/ heavy industry/ steel makers due a bounce

[jpeterki] 26/6/2003 01:00

Although short DD, FRE, XLNT, ALTR, SAFC, COST, EBAY, AAPL, LEH, I have actually gone long Dow from 9000 expecting some sort of DCB

[jpeterki] 26/6/2003 00:57

Aye, i followed TH to the letter, made very many points and recouped a fair chunk of margin, quartered pot march- june , doubled pot last two weeks, also feel on a roll and doing research

[theape] 26/6/2003 00:54

nope.

I made about 30% on my (depleted) margin tonighton the dow.

but was more than I made last month working.

all hyper & jittery.

need a club, booze and a lie in.

(none of which I shall get).

I got the lucky stick on the dow at the momenttook 190 pts tonight ( short, close, reshort)


cant sleep, and restraining myself from going full on short.

but its hard to be cautious. I'm on such a roll at the moment. time for a holiday.

[jpeterki] 26/6/2003 00:47

Morning ape, can't sleep?
Any views on Corus, DT?

[theape] 26/6/2003 00:40

TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - Japan retail sales in May fell 3.6 pct compared to a year
earlier, following a 3.8 pct drop on the same basis a month earlier, the
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) said.
The data is for large-scale stores nationwide, and on a same-store basis.
METI also released the following figures, showing the changes in sales on a
year-on-year basis, by store type and product category:

Departmart store sales down 3.0 pct
Supermarket store sales down 4.1 pct
Food and beverage sales down 2.2 pct
Clothing sales down 2.7 pct
Sales of other products down 7.1 pct
[e-mail]
em/rte/tr

[theape] 26/6/2003 00:13

this has probably had its run- but was a short here a week ago.




if we get into accounting stuff



toffeeman has researched this before (excellently)and this co has loads of DAC,

which means Deferred Acquisition Cost.

which means

when you spend money on marketing, you dont expense it through the profit & loss, as a cost.

NO ITS AN ASSET
YOU'RE BUILDING A CUSTOMER BASE YOU'LL MAKE MILLIONS FROM IN FUTURE YEARS.

PUT IT ON THE BALANCE SHEET AS AN ASSET, ITS NOT A REAL COST.

but if consumer spending drops off, you'll have to write the whole lot off of course.

A GIFT at this price IMHO

[theape] 25/6/2003 23:27

only playing with pocket money till after the fed decision.

unlike those longs- ouch

[theape] 25/6/2003 23:05

cymbelline.

dont know.

but there is more fear than greed out there.

and when it starts going down again I short it.

seems to work.

[euro99] 25/6/2003 23:04

what time is the fed?

[briarberry] 25/6/2003 22:50

interesting bit of info...

Japan's overnight call rate dipped to minus 0.001 percent Wednesday, the
first time it has fallen below zero, Kyodo quoted the Bank of Japan as
saying. A below-zero rate means that lenders are paying interest to
borrowers. The call rate is the rate charged on overnight loans between
commercial banks

[captain.] 25/6/2003 22:45

GF your honesty is to be applauded to some you have become a Guru and they appear to rely on your every word - well done for the word of caution.

This game is a steep learning curve even for Paul( give the lad a break :) we`ve all been there).

Enjoy the read and keep the opinions coming.

ps----No offence intended or implied (before any flak starts flying :))

[moregas] 25/6/2003 22:45

Traders Briar traders. Afterthought Goodfella for one. See above somewhere later today^^^^^^^

[briarberry] 25/6/2003 22:37

hummm, maybe it will rally tomorrow ?



My Wonderful Roses 6/24/03

The market has trained us well. It's Fed Cut One Day, and we know what to expect. History tells us the Fed will announce...something, it doesn't matter what, and the market will sell off later in the afternoon, after some initial gyrations. A massive Feed jam will follow on Thursday morning, and the market will then rally explosively. We know that because we've seen it over and over. So what did you do? You covered your shorts in advance over the last few days. You are sitting in cash, waiting for the inevitable bounce. The perfect opportunity to go short.

What did the bulls do? They spent their last nickel, and pyramided their margin accounts to the hilt over the last couple weeks. Oops, we got a little downdraft the last few days. Margin account is now a little tight. We won't do any more buying, and we'll just wait for that bounce we know is coming to lighten up.

So about this bounce that everyone expects. Question.

Who will buy?