Cake Box Share Discussion Threads

[s_a_b] 02/10/2018 08:59

That would be the icing on the cake ;)

[nitbhav06] 02/10/2018 08:21

Gold guru I also think we shoukd factor in new products over the years and potential entry in supermarkets.

[elpirata] 01/10/2018 16:15

lol, this looks a decent vanilla investment with forward divis baked in

[goldguru2017] 01/10/2018 16:09

yes self taught by years of mistakes!

[elpirata] 01/10/2018 16:02

excellent analysis goldguru2017, are you self torte?

[goldguru2017] 01/10/2018 15:37

It always comforts me to see limited activity on chatrooms as this means there are many more retail investors yet to discover the CBOX story.

The recent dip in price due to Lombard Odier Asset Management (Europe) Limited trimming their holdings to just less than 5% allowed me to double up at lower levels though I have to admit I questioned myself as it was going down!

Good news to see CBOX hit 100 stores. Adding 16 since year end March 2018.

A reminder of my figures posted Aug 4th 2018.

"To achieve the March year end figures of AT profit of £2.77 million they had 86 Franchise stores generating revenue to them of £12.834 million. This is £149k per franchisee (having risen from £119k in 2016 and £138k in 2017). Cost of sales were £7.263 million giving operating revenue of £5.571 million and an operating margin of 43%. This is consistent with 2017 and 2016 which is a good sign. Admin expenses were £2.3 million (£1.67 million:2016,1.3 million:2017) which have been rising in line with profits. This gives an EBITDA for 2018 of £3.7 million and After tax profit of £2.77 million.

They opened 23 stores between 2017 and 2018 so lets assume conservatively they have opened 23 stores for the year ending March 2019 (forecast higher). Ok I am not exact here as we don't know at what point each store was opened but this evens out over the years when doing EPS comparisons. Also as the revenue per store has been increasing I assume that this rises from £149k/store to £159/store which is consistent with previous years increases (its profile is now higher with listing and national advertising campaign).

2019 Revenues for 109 franchisees at £159 per store is revenue of £17.3 million. If you assume the same operating margin then the Cost of Sales are £9.88 million, Admin expenses assumed to be flattening out but still increasing so £2.6 million. This gives an Operating profit of £4.85 million and AT Profit of 3.98 million. This is an EPS of 10 pence a share. The PE ratio has dropped to 17 and the PEG ratio is 0.4, still extremely attractive.

My estimates for 2020 using the same methodology is 132 stores for revenues of £22.3 million and an AT profit of £5.49 million and EPS 14 pence. At a PE ration of 25 (still way below 1 PEG ratio) this is a share price of £3.50.

I would expect the increase in number of new stores to be higher than my assumptions due to the current momentum of the business and proven track record over 3 years. People love the product and this is translating to the bottom line."

It looks like the momentum is better and hopefully year end March 2019 total stores will be more like 115-120 instead of the 109 assumed above.

I read the Shore Capital research report which is comprehensive. It has a lower figure for 2019 Earnings due to one off costs associated with listing but this should be extracted for valuation purposes at its a one off.

Good luck everyone - I expect the share price to make further ground from here.

[nitbhav06] 01/10/2018 11:38

Another leg up, great potential here. Can't wait for results.

[davr0s] 28/9/2018 20:19

Touching new highs - if it breaks i'm adding to my position. No opinion on share - I just look at price and volume as that tells me all I need to see

[opodio] 28/9/2018 20:11

50pc downside. National min wage up, cream prices rocketing as pound slumps

[nitbhav06] 28/9/2018 17:48

Once results are out. The fund managers will want a slice. There is still 100% upside in the next 2-3 years. Hardly any debt on balance sheet.

[opodio] 28/9/2018 17:41

Could be a load of profit taking and send it down to 150p again

[nw99] 28/9/2018 17:39

Results will blow the shares thro £2

[opodio] 28/9/2018 17:36

You might get EGG on your face if the founders dump a load more

[nw99] 28/9/2018 17:19

Await results

[discodave4] 28/9/2018 16:22

Will it hold this time I wonder.

[nw99] 28/9/2018 13:03

Nice move up

[s_a_b] 28/9/2018 12:39

The one from three days ago

[opodio] 28/9/2018 12:26

CBOX on fire, hot cake cake mmmm nice hot cake

[jh420] 28/9/2018 12:19

Which RNS?

[s_a_b] 28/9/2018 11:43

Did someone just read the RNS?!

[nw99] 25/9/2018 10:36

They will be very good

[s_a_b] 25/9/2018 09:52

I'll buy two cakes and a macaroon if you can tell me what the interims RNS will say ;)

[pietradura] 25/9/2018 08:18

surprised no move