Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Cake Box Holdings Plc LSE:CBOX London Ordinary Share GB00BDZWB751 ORD GBP0.01
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -1.50 -1.06% 140.00 46,129 10:09:25
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
137.00 143.00 141.50 138.50 141.50
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Food Producers 16.91 3.81 7.51 18.6 56
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
14:57:16 O 4,863 139.00 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
15/11/201916:43Cake Box Holdings360
13/2/201911:07Ratios3
09/11/201011:04Cashbox110
03/5/200713:57Cashbox Going bust? shorting opportunity40

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Cake Box (CBOX) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
14:57:17139.004,8636,759.57O
12:48:22139.00367510.13O
12:03:14137.008551,171.35O
09:38:04140.007,25010,150.00O
09:29:44137.106,0008,226.00O
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Cake Box (CBOX) Top Chat Posts

DateSubject
20/11/2019
08:20
Cake Box Daily Update: Cake Box Holdings Plc is listed in the Food Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker CBOX. The last closing price for Cake Box was 141.50p.
Cake Box Holdings Plc has a 4 week average price of 138.50p and a 12 week average price of 138.50p.
The 1 year high share price is 188p while the 1 year low share price is currently 138.50p.
There are currently 40,000,000 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 174,889 shares. The market capitalisation of Cake Box Holdings Plc is £56,000,000.
16/2/2019
01:19
radioactive_man: Happy holder here after some considered discussion on IPO frauds. Does anyone have any thoughts on the amount of IPO's that have gone wrong recently? CAKE, TAP, LUCE, FOOT, the list goes on and on. However most of these fit into a particular profile. Exciting growth and directors cashing out some of their holding rather than raising cash for growth. I'm sure you can see where I'm going with this... I will say I do not suspect CBOX of fraud but these companies have all appeared fine prior to an event that leads to a massive fall in the share price There may have been amber flags but nothing concrete.It could be argued that CBOX has a couple of amber flags of its own: directors cashed out (I'm not sure the listing provides any benefit to the company). The company is profitable and growing do I'm not sure why this step was taken. Unless it is to grow the share price to cash out further. Finally the stores are incredibly profitable which is a benefit of the franchise model. However it could be argued that the (incorrect) use of EBITDA and lack of LFL figures are hiding the important numbers.Not trying to be inflammatory but would welcome any comments on why this is/isn't a stupid idea.
27/11/2018
08:58
smerch1468: Jumped on board this morning. Been a CAKE customer for the last few years, and love their product. I didn't know they where AIM listed until yesterday. They offer a niche product(eggless cakes) but there is no reason why they can't succeed in the wider market with their 1-hour personalised cake service. The share price has held up well despite the recent wider market turbulence.
16/10/2018
07:18
goldguru2017: The figures will be slightly less year end 2019 due to one off costs incurred on the listing. This should be ignored for valuation purposes. Please see my previous analysis where I mention this. Happy with the share price bouncing back - I suspect the same fund, Odey, was trimming recently again for whatever reasons (could be profit taking or general market fears. Also with all the turmoil around Patisserie Valerie some may have got cold feet, though this is illogical as it was company specific. With the market unease I expect the shares to tread water for the next while which is fine.
09/10/2018
09:22
s_a_b: Thanks all. For what it's worth I'm a fundamental investor but if you read Damodaran on valuation he says you shouldn't ignore market price drivers, including momentum and liquidity, when making an investment. IMHO if they can deliver the roll out here the fundamentals would support a significantly higher share price, but keen to understand the bear case if anyone has a different view!
02/10/2018
12:10
nitbhav06: Another excellent uplift in share price. I am looking for anothet entry but the share price keeps going up!
01/10/2018
14:37
goldguru2017: It always comforts me to see limited activity on chatrooms as this means there are many more retail investors yet to discover the CBOX story. The recent dip in price due to Lombard Odier Asset Management (Europe) Limited trimming their holdings to just less than 5% allowed me to double up at lower levels though I have to admit I questioned myself as it was going down! Good news to see CBOX hit 100 stores. Adding 16 since year end March 2018. A reminder of my figures posted Aug 4th 2018. "To achieve the March year end figures of AT profit of £2.77 million they had 86 Franchise stores generating revenue to them of £12.834 million. This is £149k per franchisee (having risen from £119k in 2016 and £138k in 2017). Cost of sales were £7.263 million giving operating revenue of £5.571 million and an operating margin of 43%. This is consistent with 2017 and 2016 which is a good sign. Admin expenses were £2.3 million (£1.67 million:2016,1.3 million:2017) which have been rising in line with profits. This gives an EBITDA for 2018 of £3.7 million and After tax profit of £2.77 million. They opened 23 stores between 2017 and 2018 so lets assume conservatively they have opened 23 stores for the year ending March 2019 (forecast higher). Ok I am not exact here as we don't know at what point each store was opened but this evens out over the years when doing EPS comparisons. Also as the revenue per store has been increasing I assume that this rises from £149k/store to £159/store which is consistent with previous years increases (its profile is now higher with listing and national advertising campaign). 2019 Revenues for 109 franchisees at £159 per store is revenue of £17.3 million. If you assume the same operating margin then the Cost of Sales are £9.88 million, Admin expenses assumed to be flattening out but still increasing so £2.6 million. This gives an Operating profit of £4.85 million and AT Profit of 3.98 million. This is an EPS of 10 pence a share. The PE ratio has dropped to 17 and the PEG ratio is 0.4, still extremely attractive. My estimates for 2020 using the same methodology is 132 stores for revenues of £22.3 million and an AT profit of £5.49 million and EPS 14 pence. At a PE ration of 25 (still way below 1 PEG ratio) this is a share price of £3.50. I would expect the increase in number of new stores to be higher than my assumptions due to the current momentum of the business and proven track record over 3 years. People love the product and this is translating to the bottom line." It looks like the momentum is better and hopefully year end March 2019 total stores will be more like 115-120 instead of the 109 assumed above. I read the Shore Capital research report which is comprehensive. It has a lower figure for 2019 Earnings due to one off costs associated with listing but this should be extracted for valuation purposes at its a one off. Good luck everyone - I expect the share price to make further ground from here.
12/9/2018
18:10
nitbhav06: No chance this is another Fevertree. It has a £5bn market cap and has expanded tapped into the US market. Even with 250 stores Cbox would generate around £25m of revenue. If we say £6m for earnings and P/E ratio of 20 (very optimistic), that gives a share price of around £6.25. No way near a Fevertree. But a takeover would make sense for Patisserie V due to synergies, economies of scale and firming up revenues. Either way I'm very bullish but it all depends on how quickly they get new franchises set-up.
07/8/2018
19:47
s_a_b: Thanks for sharing your detailed analysis goldguru2017. Interesting you mention DOM given the franchise model – I missed out on that one so would be delighted with similar growth here! The main driver of growth and shareholder returns is clearly going to be the ability to continue opening an average of two new franchise stores per month. If they can do this at 24 per year up to the target of 250 stores mentioned on p16 of the admission document, while maintaining existing store sales, then I think it’s likely there will a major upward movement in the share price over time, particularly given the franchise model and minimal capital requirements for expansion. If they can continue to generate LFL growth from existing stores and / or introduce complementary products then things could get very interesting indeed. I had been through the same exercise on future sales/profits and got to some similar numbers. The main difference is that I assumed an average number of stores trading in FY18 of 75 (63 at March 2017 and 86 at March 2018, taking a straight average of the two). This would give a slightly higher revenue per store, but appreciate it is only a rough estimate. Good luck all! SAB
04/8/2018
16:44
goldguru2017: Firstly, the business model is simple. They make a product nobody else makes and make money from franchisee royalties and the fact they are the exclusive providers of the ingredients to the franchisees. They analyse 70+ potential franchisees a week and are extremely selective in choosing awardees based on strict criteria. To achieve the March year end figures of AT profit of £2.77 million they had 86 Franchise stores generating revenue to them of £12.834 million. This is £149k per franchisee (having risen from £119k in 2016 and £138k in 2017). Cost of sales were £7.263 million giving operating revenue of £5.571 million and an operating margin of 43%. This is consistent with 2017 and 2016 which is a good sign. Admin expenses were £2.3 million (£1.67 million:2016,1.3 million:2017) which have been rising in line with profits. This gives an EBITDA for 2018 of £3.7 million and After tax profit of £2.77 million. They opened 23 stores between 2017 and 2018 so lets assume conservatively they have opened 23 stores for the year ending March 2019 (forecast higher). Ok I am not exact here as we don't know at what point each store was opened but this evens out over the years when doing EPS comparisons. Also as the revenue per store has been increasing I assume that this rises from £149k/store to £159/store which is consistent with previous years increases (its profile is now higher with listing and national advertising campaign). 2019 Revenues for 109 franchisees at £159 per store is revenue of £17.3 million. If you assume the same operating margin then the Cost of Sales are £9.88 million, Admin expenses assumed to be flattening out but still increasing so £2.6 million. This gives an Operating profit of £4.85 million and AT Profit of 3.98 million. This is an EPS of 10 pence a share. The PE ratio has dropped to 17 and the PEG ratio is 0.4, still extremely attractive. A PE ratio for a company like this with annual earnings growth of 53%,70%,44% over the last 3 years in my view is should be around 30. If you assume it is 25 then the share price next year should hit £2.50, a near 50% increase on current levels. My estimates for 2020 using the same methodology is 132 stores for revenues of £22.3 million and an AT profit of £5.49 million and EPS 14 pence. At a PE ration of 25 (still way below 1 PEG ratio) this is a share price of £3.50. I would expect the increase in number of new stores to be higher than my assumptions due to the current momentum of the business and proven track record over 3 years. People love the product and this is translating to the bottom line. Risks. The risks are increasing ingredient costs and inability to pass on these costs and also if the Corporate Admin costs increase higher than I have forecast. The other one is how they fund the 2 new distribution centres and time and cost overruns on these. I sold out too soon on Dominos Pizza and way way too soon on Fevertree. However, speculating is learning process and I hope that this has taught me to not be scared by high PE ratios on retail companies with high growth rates and a proven formula! Good Luck to everyone!
14/2/2007
11:16
prmoldoaks: V1deoman Charts are fine, but Cashbox locations are totally different to Paypoint and the PE/valuation of Cashpoint reflects this in the share price. If you are considering sector like for like then this could suggest a higher PE for Cashbox and a higher share price, hence the heady rise when interest is shown in a buy out.
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