Byotrol Share Discussion Threads

[abbynat] 11/6/2020 17:05

it struggled to get there! hopefully am tomorrow!

[slicethepie] 11/6/2020 16:28

He is still trying to grasp the meaning of qualified and unqualified accounts!

[techair] 11/6/2020 16:03

ABBYNAT 11 Jun '20 - 15:06 - 6123 of 6124
0 1 0
do any of you think this is creeping up to 6.5-7.00 ?

Thought you were off at 6.1p? :)

[1gw] 11/6/2020 15:13

sikhthetech, do you not understand the difference between "royalty" and "material minimum annual guaranteed payments"?

[abbynat] 11/6/2020 15:06

do any of you think this is creeping up to 6.5-7.00 ?

[abbynat] 11/6/2020 15:01

football, the link you provided ie sunon in china,
my antivirus informed me was a bad web adds, so i didn't proceed and have a chance to use my non existent chinese translation skills.
oh well!

[sikhthetech] 11/6/2020 14:56

1gw

"How would finnCap (or anyone but byotrol) estimate the future guaranteed payments "

Obviously Finncap would as they are the company's broker, are they not?



"So for now it appears to me finnCap have just counted the $0.25m upfront on byotrol24, something similar for SC Johnson (where they suggest there was an "undisclosed" payment) and then rounded to £0.5m."



Advanced Hygienics (AH) has been a partner for THREE yrs.
Have they had meaningful royalties over the last 3 yrs? Royalties from an established deal would give a rough idea as to what can be expected. Was it £millions then as you're implying?
I'm sure Finncap would know and used that in their model.


Given you've spoken to the management about their US operations, how much royalty did AH generate?

[1gw] 11/6/2020 14:49

How would finnCap (or anyone but byotrol) estimate the future guaranteed payments in the current licence agreements, sikhthetech? byotrol have talked about "material minimum annual guaranteed payments" in the byotrol24 agreement and "guaranteed revenues" in the SC Johnson agreement, but haven't given any indication of the scale of these revenues (beyond "material"). In addition, you need to know something about the type of ongoing "performance obligations" in those agreements to be able to judge how much of the guaranteed revenue stream they would expect to book in FY21.

So for now it appears to me finnCap have just counted the $0.25m upfront on byotrol24, something similar for SC Johnson (where they suggest there was an "undisclosed" payment) and then rounded to £0.5m.

More information on this will have to be disclosed, I think, in the interims, and may be disclosed in an earlier TU and at the point that byotrol disclose the further information I would expect finnCap to update its estimates.

[sikhthetech] 11/6/2020 14:36

and on possible upgrade to their forecasts, Finncap clearly state if there are FURTHER IP Licence agreements, so they have taken the current agreements into account.



" the prospect for upgrades on further IP licence agreements"

[sikhthetech] 11/6/2020 14:32

1gw

"On revenue, they've assumed sales drop to £0.6m/month from August."
"Have a look at what the numbers would be if you assume the £1m/month run-rate continues (or even increases) for a few months beyond July. "


The company already stated that they don't expect the high rate to continue, so Finncap are reiterating what the company have stated...
Are you saying the company are wrong?


There was an initial surge due to Covid19 and there's no suggestion the from the company that these will continue throughout H1 and into H2.

All as expected then.


Crucially, how many repeat orders are there?

[1gw] 11/6/2020 14:27

I suggest you create your own P&L for byotrol, sikhthetech, and look at the operational gearing. finnCap have been transparent on their revenue forecasts and have also given their cost assumptions. On revenue, they've assumed sales drop to £0.6m/month from August. On cost they've assumed a marked increase in admin expenses, not just marketing.

Have a look at what the numbers would be if you assume the £1m/month run-rate continues (or even increases) for a few months beyond July. Have a look at the impact of IP revenue coming in higher because they book not just current year cash but the discounted value of future guaranteed payments (after adjusting for any future performance obligations) on the licence deals.

Personally I think both revenue and profit numbers will come in well above these finnCap numbers, but I understand finnCap (and indeed byotrol) wanting to be conservative at this stage. That sets things up nicely for finnCap to raise forecasts when byotrol give the next TU.

Obviously no advice intended, just trying to explain how I see things.

[sikhthetech] 11/6/2020 14:19

1gw,

Whatever happened to the £12m revenues from product sales plus the millions from the Royalty fees?

The update is as expected and shows you were posting BS...

£800k pre-tax profit forecast...

Revenue forecasts up only £4m!!!

[sikhthetech] 11/6/2020 14:15

After the biggest opportunity presented to Byot..the forecast is for fy2021, 1 years time, is Ebitda of only £1.1m and pre-tax of £700k...


With this great opportunity, the forecasts only £4m increase in revenues and £800k increase in adj Ebitda.
Not good.

As expected.

Mcap too high and any potential upgrades already factored in...


Finncap:

We forecast a 67% increase in revenues to £10m with adjusted EBITDA and pre-tax profit of £1.1m (£0.25m) and £0.7m, respectively. With the pandemic likely to have resulted in a secular shift towards improved disinfection prevention and the prospect for upgrades on further IP licence agreements, we reiterate our target price of
9p, at which level the stock would trade on 3.8x sales

[1gw] 11/6/2020 09:27

Good to see the finnCap note, if disappointing to see the target price unchanged.

My own feeling is that the finnCap numbers are light on IP revenue in FY21. It looks from what they say that they are building in only their view of FY21 cash receipts - i.e. the up-front on the byotrol 24 deal and something similar on the SC Johnson deal (or an estimate of actual royalty receipts).

What this misses is the revenue that might be booked in FY21 from the guaranteed payments over the life of those contracts (and possibly also the Tristel Cache contract, depending on when the performance obligations on that were satisfied). We should see how much this amounts to in the interims, when I believe they will have to disclose it as "contract assets" on the balance sheet, or hopefully before then in the guidance they have suggested they will give over the next month or so.

[tradertrev] 11/6/2020 08:59

9p TP reiterated. Estimates for FY21 "still provide scope through the year for further upgrades "

[football] 11/6/2020 08:40

is there a new note out today still the same target or more anyone?



Following trading updates on 27 April and 14 May, we are introducing forecasts for FY 2021, confident that the demand for disinfection products is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels. Byotrol’s strong order book (>£2m) at the end of April and improving supply chain management for biocidal ingredients, as countries exit lockdown measures, also underpin our confidence. We forecast a 67% increase in revenues to £10m with adjusted EBITDA and pre-tax profit of £1.1m (£0.25m) and £0.7m, respecti...

[mudbath] 10/6/2020 18:33

Dr Millar as CEO.
Those were dark days!

[sikhthetech] 10/6/2020 15:49

AbbyNat,

"its changed its colour to blue."

You should state that you're disappointed more often.


Everytime someone talks about selling, 1gw and his mates appear and the share price rises to convince you that it's the wrong time to sell...

;-)

[1gw] 10/6/2020 15:33

A bit of a slower burn than anticipated perhaps, but cometh the hour...

-------------------------------------
mudbath - 27 Feb 2013 - 22:22:16 - 39 of 6108

Byotrol PLC was recognised by UK Trade & Investment (UKTI) at the Greater China Awards 2013 last Friday,coming third in the Greater China Rising Star category.

Byotrol PLC has formed an international partnership with Chinese firm, Sunon, to launch pet grooming and hygiene products under the name of Carexpro.

This new brand, as a result of the collaboration with Sunon, has seen initial sales and distribution targets exceeded, and it is now expected to take a 15% market share in China and Hong Kong by the end of 2013 after only launching in June last year.

Another impressive achievement Dr.Millar !

[football] 10/6/2020 15:08

carexpro (byotrol)

[riddlerone] 10/6/2020 14:58

Ask the tick and do the opposite that always pays dividends.

[football] 10/6/2020 14:48

Be a man of your word

[abbynat] 10/6/2020 14:36

mm, its changed its colour to blue.
what shall i do?
have seen it all before, creeps up and then the traders sell and it goes red again.
while it languishes for countless weeks again.