Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[loglorry1] 26/11/2021 09:24

I'll be back in here c750p. It probably gets there.

[williamcooper104] 26/11/2021 08:20

c0.4 bear beta today - not bad - c2 is normal

[syoun2] 19/11/2021 15:02

IC write up

11. Burford Capital
Litigation funder Burford Capital (BUR) deployed more cash in the first half of the year than ever before, but it may take a while for it to see this turned into income. The issue with litigation funders is that it can take years for cases to settle, making their income stream lumpy.
Disruptions to the courts have accen- tuated this problem. Burford swung from profit before tax of $187m (£140m) in the first half of last year to a loss of $67.5m this year because 43 per cent of its ongoing cases were delayed by Covid-19.
The good news is that it has a 95 per cent return on invested capital. So its track record of backing cases is strong and it made $503m of capital commitments in the first half of the year. Brokers seem confident that its grow- ing case portfolio will translate into prof- its. The FactSet consensus is that EPS will be 32p for the end of the year before jump- ing to 94.5p for FY 2022. This seems prom- ising, but analysts have historically missed EPS forecasts by double-digit percentages, so don’t hold your breath. Hold. AS

[williamcooper104] 19/11/2021 14:21

And really shouldn't be any surprise to any long term holder

[williamcooper104] 19/11/2021 14:21

Not at all - 1.35 beta - and it's always had a high beta You can debate the rights and wrongs of this but there's no argument that it's share price is highly correlated

[divmad] 19/11/2021 13:38

I thought bur wasn't correlated to the general market.

[time_traveller] 19/11/2021 13:04

Certainly not paying for the thing, but what does it say? Down heavily again, but doubt that's due to the IC rag... but we seem to get a kicking if the yield curve is up, and a kicking if financials are down - can't win!

[syoun2] 18/11/2021 20:35

Not impressed by the IC write up but not Ok with it. Personally hoping price will drop one more time as I want to purchase more at a cheap price.

[time_traveller] 18/11/2021 16:00

I'm surprised there hasn't been a notification of (change in) major holdings, as the drip drip of selling (presumably hedged by the short) seems to have gone on for a couple of months, with a very similar daily pattern.

[lomax99] 18/11/2021 14:47

4% up would be a nice finish!

[syoun2] 18/11/2021 12:42

This was inevitable with price going up under low volume. This share is for ever giving to traders so once again I will also top up around 730 to 750

[lomax99] 18/11/2021 10:23

Usual nonsense on little/no volume, topping up in the low 7's.

[gettingrichslow] 15/11/2021 08:41

Donald, I think you’re right but I don’t think the market has absorbed what’s happening yet. This is the most significant election outcome since Argentina became a democracy in the 80s and the president has just “vowed to resolve the country’s debt with the International Monetary Fund, tackle the evil of inflation and send a long-term economic plan to Congress in early December”

[donald pond] 15/11/2021 08:07

The left Peronist government have lost their majority in Congress and taken a beating in Buenos Aires. Perhaps that's why we've started well today

[galatea99] 10/11/2021 10:40

It seems that Argentina is planning to pay off its debt with "climate action":



Mentioned at 22'00" in to this episode of "Tucker Carlson Tonight".

Even for Argentina, hahahaha!

[maddox] 09/11/2021 11:15

IC and FT have totally lost their credibility. Whilst IC have a few good Analysts the rest are journalists that don't like to let the analysis get in the way of a good story. Muddy Waters is good copy so the journos have no interest in challenging it - and they'll repeat the nonsense over and over every time they cover BUR.

I dread them writing-up BUR - it's usually horribly inaccurate.

For example, Sept 9 IC commenting on the results they decided that the new $79m non-cash accruals arose from a negative revaluation of their case portfolio. In fact, it was the inclusion of an accrual for expenses that would be incurred on a SUCCESSFUL OUTCOME of the fair-value cases (commissions and bonus pool etc). This was a new accounting requirement as a result of the US Listing and adoption of US GAAP accounting standards.

But hey, why miss the opportunity to negatively portray the facts.

IC used to allow 'user comments' below each article - this functionality was removed - I wonder why?

Regards Maddox

[syoun2] 08/11/2021 19:56

I agree with everything you said but still nice for good PR

[devalpha] 08/11/2021 19:17

syoun2....with all due respect, whether the IC are upbeat or not on bur is totally irrelevant. What matters is business progress.Always remember that the IC & FT were very bullish on bur up until Block's report, and then immediately changed tact after reading, and obviously believing in the content of that report.They clearly had no real knowledge of bur's business prior to the report, and were basing their bullishness on the fact that the price was going up!Similarly, they then based their negative views on the fact that the price went down after Block's report.Hardly inspired financial journalism.

[syoun2] 08/11/2021 19:04

There Should be a paragraph or two in IC this week as part of there AIM company review. Let’s hope they’re upbeat

[laughton] 05/11/2021 10:09

Hope so - managed to pick up a few more this morning @ 855p after receipt of divis on other holdings.

Very impressed with presentation - other company boards could do a lot worse than watching and learning how it should be done.

[tnt99] 05/11/2021 09:47

Here we go 10 pounds by christmasBig upside here come on my Reddit fans let's push this one up

[tradertrev] 03/11/2021 14:17

Management here has a long track record of being conservative on any predictive comments that are ever wrung out of them.

[kuk1doh] 03/11/2021 13:41

I’m long on Burford for a few years and intend to stick… happy to be in the black again after yesterday!

It was a good session but still find their presentation of potential financial return causes confusion - evidenced by CEO Bogart trying to correct an analyst’s book value maths on an investors day. Shouldn’t happen. Still I thought the predictive model was very helpful. I presume the model forecast was pitched to be exciting but is still conservative.

My back of an envelope:
Ex YPF there’s $3.4bn cash flow less $1.4bn spent gives $2bn gain, of which $200M has already been recognised in unrealised gains, leaving $1.8bn net new realisation/profit for the P&L. Add $360M fund fees (great to see that number) and then take off the newly disclosed 10% staff take on revenue and we’ve $2.2bn potential income over… let’s call it the next 3 years as many of these are in process for some time. Apply the 50% net after tax 2020 FY margin (admittedly an historically low margin) and we’ve a 3yr rolling average of $360M or $1.60 EPS. 15x multiple (my number) gets to approx $25.

YPF… as far as I can work out, burford balance sheet owns 40% plus earns fees on the funds/3rd party investor… assume $5bn settlement so call it $2.5bn for Burford all in less 10% staff tax… all opex covered by the base non YPF business… deduct unrealised gain on b/s and tax… adds approx $1bn+ to book value… $5/share… $5bn is a big assumption but even then YPF is not the big idea here and I thought they helped investors get to that conclusion yesterday.

Im long for growth prospects… if they can prove they can collect the cash the model suggests and commitments compound at 15% going forward… if scale and bigger family cases grows margin to 65% then there’s potential for the average earnings to grow to $4 around 26/27 and $50 is achievable then