Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[tnt99] 02/11/2021 15:08

700 million!!!!

[rar100] 02/11/2021 14:29

This is good news, hopefully net profit figures will be exceeding the last couple of years (by a good chunk).

2018 - 386.44

2019 - 326.42

2020 - 316.68

I think this is the main reason the share price has been in the doldrums for 2 years.

From their statements today any guesses as to net profit for next results?

GLA

[scubadiverr] 02/11/2021 14:23

Click on the play button to the right. It's not obvious, I missed first 10 mins

[djderry] 02/11/2021 14:18

I'm registered but haven't got access as of yet.

[bramcych] 02/11/2021 13:39

Agree, this could be a real turning point as under-valuation is becoming farcical

[chucko1] 02/11/2021 13:38

But that is natural as their experience of full life cycle of cases increases, notwithstanding their previous knowledge.

The previous (and contested) question of accounting also naturally dilutes over time, absent a fraud.

[williamcooper104] 02/11/2021 13:30

Looks a bit like forward guidance, which they've not done before

[donald pond] 02/11/2021 12:13

Some punchy figures there, could be a real catalyst fir a rerating

[lomax99] 02/11/2021 12:01

BUR investor event:

The following key themes will be discussed:


-- Portfolio expected to generate significant gains: Returns
have been rising as matter size has increased and as experience
and data have continued to improve outcomes. Our internal
model suggests the current core balance sheet portfolio
ex-YPF can generate cash proceeds of $3.4 billion and realized
gains of $2.0 billion, plus $360 million of asset management
performance fee income.(1)
-- Continued opportunities for growth: Burford has led the
industry in product development and continues to innovate
today. It has implemented a successful expansion strategy
to drive incremental business in current markets and expand
geographically.
-- Strongly positive asymmetry to returns: Our capital provision
assets typically have much greater upside than downside.
-- Focused on sustainable shareholder profitability: Our five-year
rolling return on tangible equity has exceeded 20% for each
of the last four years, suggestive of a sustainable long-term
level.(2)

[kinfofbkue2302] 29/10/2021 18:26

Very good points you are probably right.. still i don't understand the pattern of fall on almost no volumes on Aim and rebound on even lower volumes on NYSE

[sam55todd] 29/10/2021 16:39

Very unlikely, under current conditions it's practically impossible to arbitrage much of a value out of those differentials. % sensitivity is well balanced with volumes, in absolute value terms it won't give you anything but rather put in a loss (considering what you have travel through 3 spreads AIM/FX/NYSE plus time value of clearing/settlement delay and chain of transactional costs while tossing it forward and back).
In order to benefit from trading so different volumes between two markets it would require much higher share price response.

[kinfofbkue2302] 29/10/2021 14:23

My theory is that it is an Algo which exploits the difference in price elasticity between Aim and NYSE so it will sell enough shares short to much lower prices on AIM and then buy them back in US where the volumes are lower but the price elasticity is better.. just a hunch. It is only done is small quantities but given the very low volumes on AIM it does affect the price materially

[lomax99] 29/10/2021 13:25

Not sure if the trading volumes have been that high throughout this drop?

[lazg] 29/10/2021 12:44

Why the drop?

[maddox] 29/10/2021 11:53

It's obviously a good thing to have pundits promoting BUR - but I doubt they'll be revealing any new perspective on the investment case.

Essentially, the investment case is a very simple one: BUR have an investment portfolio of $4.765bn as at 1H21 which has grown at a CAGR of 46% (19 month doubling-time) over recent years. BUR have generated, looking at the historic cumulative returns on concluded cases, a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 95%, equivalent to an internal rate of return (IRR) of 30%.

This level of high return is generated without a commensurate high level of risk. The liquidity position is very strong with $420m of cash/cash equivalents at 1H21 (excluding Akhmedov settlement cash).

This is thus an extraordinarily attractive risk/reward opportunity. Simples!

[feuguru] 28/10/2021 15:09

An interesting fund manager note.
A different and positive view on Chris Bogart. Having personally met Christopher several times, I think he would be quite bemused by this level of high flattery. However, the commentary does have an excellent point to make. The whole industry of LitFin has been led by the positive influence, leadership and insight of one man.

hxxps://www.vltavafund.com/data/dopisy/dopis_67_en.pdf

use the link to the site heading "please allow me to introduce".

[lomax99] 28/10/2021 15:08

Investor day next Tuesday, hopefully that will drum up some interest.

[dekle] 28/10/2021 13:35

That report is 6 months old, would be nice to find more up to date information

[three black crows] 28/10/2021 13:17

The analysis would be similar to Travis Weidower/s analysis
Titled .............

Burford Capital is By Far the Most Undervalued Company I Know Of

and can be viewed here for those who have not had the pleasure

hxxps://traviswiedower.com/

[three black crows] 28/10/2021 13:15

The analysis would be similar to Travis Weidower/s analysis
Titled .............

Burford Capital is By Far the Most Undervalued Company I Know Of

and can be viewed here for those who have not had the pleasure

hxxps://traviswiedower.com/

[jockthescot75] 28/10/2021 09:08

Thanks HOP. Anyone read it? I assume the analysis is no different to want long term holders here know already?

[houseofpain1] 27/10/2021 22:35

New idea just posted long Burford Capital $BUR - the "market leader in litigation finance" - which the contributing PM calls "one of the few firms in the world that could be worth 5x in 6 years, no matter what happens in the world.

[chester9] 27/10/2021 15:40

Someone manipulating a position. It's the AIM. Soon be back to 8:00. Games going on