Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[williamcooper104] 12/10/2021 10:23

Other than Peterson average case length two years A bond with a yield of 20 and a maturity of 2 years has a duration of 15-18 months - so very little sensitivity to rising rates If we get the judgment interest on Peterson of 9 percent (and it gets paid - big if) then Peterson's less rate sensitive

[donald pond] 12/10/2021 10:20

I get that log, and I'm sure this will be a negotiation but BURs ability to choke off dollar payments to Argentina gives them some negotiating strength

[loglorry1] 12/10/2021 10:18

I hold a lot of YPF bonds. YPF are 51% state owned and completely state controlled. They are also very skint and have problems rolling their debt. Argies rely on exports for hard currency (dollars) and YPF do export some oil and gas but mostly they sell into a local (subsidised) market.

If BUR win then going after YPF is quite similar to going after argie state who would have to inject cash into YPF anyway to pay.

This is why it all gets very political because you can't skin a chicken twice and Argies are skint. They are complely reliant on IMF already!

[donald pond] 12/10/2021 10:07

But...Argentina aren't the only plaintiff. Aren't YPF also a plaintiff, and aren't they seeking to export gas themselves (https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2238876-argentina-gears-up-for-gas-exports-to-chile-brazil)Its going to be very hard for Argentina to get dollars if they don't reach a settlement with Burford. And it's dollars they need. That's an angle that didn't apply in the Cairn case. It's going to be interesting to see how it resolves

[loglorry1] 12/10/2021 09:55

In theory yes as all dollar payments must go via a US bank for clearing. In practice I'm sure it is a lot more poltical than that and as ever if they win it will come down to a negotiation.

[donald pond] 12/10/2021 09:49

I understand the problems of enforcement and this is a good summary of the issues cairn faced However, in the case of Argentina, there may be a wrinkle which makes life easier, in that the asset that was seized was a huge gas field. Burford may well be able to seize any payments in dollars anywhere in the world made by a bank in respect of the Argentine energy industry. That's the most likely route: when I worked in legal for a bank we often had emails sent to the legal departments worldwide in such matters. And no bulk buyer of energy is going to want to be in contempt of US enforcement proceedings.

[loglorry1] 12/10/2021 09:43

Inflation is a problem for BUR. The future value of their cases will be eroded by inflation. This is true of all stocks but ones valued against future value stretching out years will be more affected.

[loglorry1] 12/10/2021 09:39

The first thing to be negotiated away will be the interest charge. Even if it goes to trial and they win their will be a negotiation to get paid because it will be very hard to enforce otherwise. Look what happened with India/Cairn they settled for a lot less than they were due.

Delays are not good for BUR but it seems like an easy tactic to play.

[donald pond] 12/10/2021 09:35

If you make the 2 big assumptions that Burford win the case and can enforce against Argentina, then delay isn't really an issue as any judgment accrues interest at 9% from the time the liability arises until the time it is paid. The last time Bogart mentioned it I think he may have suggested this partly explained Argentina's approach, as the rate of interest they could borrow in the markets was above 9% and so the longer they delayed, the better for them (but also, paradoxically, the better for us).

[chester9] 11/10/2021 11:30

Thank you. I suspect no LTH surprised one little bit.

[djderry] 11/10/2021 11:21

FYI, extension granted.

[lomax99] 11/10/2021 09:40

Preska should give them short shrift, the case has been running for 7+ years, any more delays and she will be retired before it is concluded.

[galatea99] 08/10/2021 18:03

Argentina already asking for more time to respond to Burford's latest submission.
This article from Clarín mentions a request for five weeks more and, should the request be granted, that would push back the trial date to August 2022. Conveniently setting themselves up for a further extension because of summer holiday absences in 2022? Then there are the legislative elections coming up in the next few weeks; just imagine the excuses a possible change of government would provoke. Or am I too cynical?

[galatea99] 05/10/2021 19:04

Article here on COVID insurance coverage lawsuits in the US, mentioned as an area in which Burford is apparently involved.

[donald pond] 05/10/2021 08:40

All this supply chain chaos means there will be a huge number of cash strapped businesses looking at their contractual rights. Fantastic conditions for any litigation funder

[onup1] 28/9/2021 16:45

Yes robert Gillespie Bur and director also Nat west bank & ex chairman uk takeover panel purch 5000sh

[donald pond] 27/9/2021 21:20

There was a director buy as well, hidden under the radar

[williamcooper104] 27/9/2021 19:56

It's a predetermined programme buy for the employee benefit trust - so doesn't give any market signalling

[rar100] 27/9/2021 18:29

I thought the share price might go up today after the RNS's of BUR buying own shares but no

[williamcooper104] 27/9/2021 18:14

So both parties have agreed to prevent the disclosure of certain information?? (google translate seems to work a lot better these days)

[donald pond] 27/9/2021 18:01

https://twitter.com/sebastianmaril/status/1442524051105329153?s=21Significant?

[lomax99] 23/9/2021 08:26

Not sure if already mentioned, BUR have a slot on the Shares investor evening webinar on 5th October.

[williamcooper104] 14/9/2021 20:29

They could easily present non-GAAP performance measures - IRR on cases is one for instance that they report on - that showed no fair value upward adjustments

[loglorry1] 14/9/2021 19:22

I don't know what the accounting rules are but I see no reason to think why a simple system where they simply show cash invested in cases, cases settled and paid, cases lost and cases still pending each year. They can then show resulting costs in running the business each year and tax paid on profits from settled cases.

Seems to me that this would be very transparent.

To be fair this is all there but its hard to work out.