Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[stentorian] 30/3/2021 13:22

DP, I'd settle for $3bn+ cash plus 50% of Vaca Muerta put through a net take-out agreement with a US oil & gas operator like Chevron over 10 years. That'll keep BUr in pencils and notebooks.

[donald pond] 30/3/2021 12:11

I think the accounting here is so complex the market discounts it. What they can't argue with is billions coming back as cash. If this settled for a bit above say $3bn that would be £10 a share in cash, plus the ongoing BUR business. The share price would react to that

[bogman1] 30/3/2021 12:04

No mention of how much of this has already been reflected so it will need to be a fairly meaty settlement to impact earnings surely. Not so long ago we were discussing a 500m write off..

[maddox] 30/3/2021 11:47

That's an interesting point Donald - if I was buying an interest in a case I'd certainly want to be assured that an agreed settlement delivered a return that justified the risk involved. Presumably, these investors have a veto?

If par value is a $1bn what would you be prepared to accept - where there is a risk of a total loss?

[lomax99] 30/3/2021 11:35

Hoping for $3bn+

[donald pond] 30/3/2021 11:31

But $2bn is around current market cap. Can only dream of what would happen if an RNS landed that we'd been paid more than that

[lomax99] 30/3/2021 10:44

For the pain endured, realisable settlement really needs to be some way north of $2bn.

[donald pond] 30/3/2021 10:07

There have been whispers on twitter of settlement discussions. I suspect a lot of shareholders would be quite happy to settle for $1-2bn and be rid of the YPF "millstone". But raising $400m suggests BUR is not likely to settle at any cost. And having sold some of the claim they will probably have a duty to consult those stakeholders. That all amounts to BUR being able to argue that they don't need to settle cheaply and in fact wouldn't be able to

[ptolemy] 30/3/2021 09:53

I don't know whether it's a good thing or not but Judge Preska is 72-years old. She's also working the Ghislaine Maxwell case. Anyway, I think this is a list of the 300 documents currently submitted to the court in the Petersen case; it may interest someone!

[donald pond] 30/3/2021 08:33

Here's an even better one from Seb. Interesting that Judge Preska seems to be the US judge for matters Argentine and she seems to have their measure

[donald pond] 29/3/2021 22:01

Interesting https://twitter.com/sebastianmaril/status/1376640023999754240?s=21

[maddox] 29/3/2021 10:11

Good demand for the debt will also reflect in the availability and pricing - so very good news. Widening the list of funders by meeting that XS demand is a good move.

It will go some way towards resolving the tight liquidity position William has identified ;-)

[bogman1] 29/3/2021 09:29

Is this starting to turn around at long last?

[tradertrev] 29/3/2021 09:17

Using extra bond issuance to pay down some of the debt closer to maturity results in some lengthening of overall debt maturity profile, some recycling of capital and demonstrates good access to capital. These are all matters of interest to rating agencies and will build the case towards gaining investment grade status at some stage. At that point the cost of debt reduces markedly. All good stuff and as usual the company is playing the long game.

[johnbuythedips] 29/3/2021 09:10

Oversubscribed. Encouraging. Good levels to build a position down here IMO compared to some of the over valued muck out there right now.
DYOR

[williamcooper104] 29/3/2021 08:47

They've got about $350m of free cash at the year against balance sheet committed funding of around the same, although typically about 16 percent of that is drawn down every year There's another c$500m of uncommitted funding - they will want to fund a lot of that too Bur is under no obvious cash flow stress -but equally it's not awash with funds - else it would be buying back shares and not issuing more debt

[rar100] 29/3/2021 08:38

Apart from the Argie cases, is there any news on other cases that BUR have going, I don't know if that was brought up in the investors call...

[lomax99] 29/3/2021 07:52

Up by $50m to $400m, 'significantly oversubscribed'. Guess everyone is worried about their solvency, not.

[wardy333] 29/3/2021 07:32

More funding issued here...

[maddox] 27/3/2021 17:50

What if it is?

They now have c.$4.5bn of capital on and off-balance sheet, and 'more liquidity than we have ever had'. I find it unthinkable that an attractive case will go unfunded because they paid the dividend. They are also raising an additional $350m they don't even need, and bearing the costs of this, in order to open a new source of future cheaper funding.

Burford is not constrained by a lack of funds.

[williamcooper104] 27/3/2021 16:01

The divi is from memory more than they originally invested in Peterson/YPF

[maddox] 27/3/2021 13:39

Seeing that there appears still to be some concerns surrounding BUR's funding I thought I'd pick a few pointers out of the Analysts Briefing/Reports:

"We brought in more cash from case successes than ever before, amounting to $1 billion Group-wide, and we ended the year with more cash on hand and liquidity than we have ever had." Christopher Bogart, Chief Executive Officer, Analysts Briefing

'Robust cash generation: $1 billion in cash receipts Group-wide and $519 million Burford-only.' rns

'Record balance sheet liquidity at year-end, with $336 million of cash and cash management assets, up 63% (2019: $206 million)' rns

'$254 million of receivables from June 30, 2020 were collected as cash in 2H 2020.' rns

On the announced $350m debt issue:

"we don't need this capital today, but we're being opportunistic and pursuing an attractive market condition"

"this also reflects a shift, you know, consistent with our shift to the New York Stock Exchange, dual listing last year. You know the US institutional debt market is the deepest in the world. And so putting an inaugural issue into that market and becoming an issuer there is something that has been a long-term goal of ours, You know we started by getting debt ratings in 2019 and our hope would be with this inaugural issue out of the way that we'll have access, ready access, to that market and to be able to drive down our funding costs over time."

Christopher Bogart, Chief Executive Officer, Analysts Briefing

That's pretty definitive I'd say. The dividend will cost $27m - a drop in the ocean.

Regards Maddox

[rar100] 27/3/2021 12:31

Donald - You were dead right in your prediction on the SP, it's beyond belief really. They should take a different tack in their PR, not just the banker/lawyer talk but in addition to that, how they are Robin Hood - helping the poor to get justice in essence, the good guys in a corrupt ugly world. That's what appealed to me most when I read and invested in them all those moons ago from glowing reports in the IC.