Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[devalpha] 02/4/2021 15:49

I agree lomax99.I think the recent price increase is more likely to be driven by continued steady buying from Bogart & Molot to gradually spend their promised $2.5m (after tax) each on shares at decent prices and also the employee share trust buying.There may also be some more US institutional interest after they digested the FY20 report.Take heart, and look to the horizon (Nick Sleep).

[lomax99] 02/4/2021 13:11

The win from Steinhoff, in absolute terms, of perhaps $10-11m is too small to have impacted on the share price to that extent.

[donald pond] 02/4/2021 12:43

Was thinking the same Maddox. Though they have always said they won't announce individual wins, if they are material- which is usually meant to be 1% of the share cap or 5% of annual profits - it should be

[lazg] 02/4/2021 12:34

@everyone: rar100 contributions are valuable. No bullying.

[maddox] 02/4/2021 12:33

It'll be interesting to see whether the Steinhoff settlement is RNS'd?

In the b/s at the year-end there were 41 cases amounting to £183m in unrealised gains (excl. YPF) that were 'widely distributed'. This suggests that Steinhoff will entail a significant write-up on it's carrying value.

It is arguable that news reports of a sizeable possible win for Burford and it's clients has already moved the share price by 10% and on this unofficial yard stick the market should be informed.

[bogman1] 02/4/2021 11:41

Very good thread Donald. Thanks. Shows the potential and value to be had here

[donald pond] 02/4/2021 09:58

Good thread https://twitter.com/valuetom84/status/1377549784282763267?s=21

[stock surfer] 02/4/2021 08:33

hxxps://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/steinhoff-settlement-is-big-win-for-burford-capital-7f9g99q3r

[donald pond] 02/4/2021 07:32

I'd not read the annual client briefing before. It's on the website, makes interesting reading...here's one snippet. Now, was this the investment that went to near zero that MW made hay about, or something else? In any event, it is a reminder of the flexibility Burford has...A venture-backed US tech company embroiled in a protracted patent and trade secret case against an industry giant needed capital both to manage the litigation and to continue on its trajectory of business growth.Burford developed a hybrid arrangement that provided complete coverage of the company's litigation finance needs plus a multi-million-dollar equity investment as part of a planned venture round. The capitalwas backed by the company's patent case, as usual, but it also gave Burford a passive equity stake in a growing company whose value turns in part on the strength of its IP.This approach reduced the company's litigation-related operating expenses to zero and increased its cash on-hand for growth, while also minimizing dilution in the equity round-all because Burford could identify and unlock the value of its litigation.

[stentorian] 02/4/2021 00:25

Hi Maddox,

from my reading of the board rar100 is a lady rather than a gentleman.

galatea99,

Thank you for the heads up yesterday on the Steinhoff article, I'm sure I wasn't the only one who profited.

[williamcooper104] 02/4/2021 00:10

"A total of $1.1 million had been deployed by the end of 2020 [and] deployments are likely to have continued in 2021," Julian Roberts, a financials analyst, said. "We expect Burford's returns to have been strong: if Burford was only backing 10 per cent of claimants and only receives 10 per cent of their receipt, the balance sheet could still see a ten-times return, and it may be higher."In anticipation, Burford shares climbed 63½p, or 10.1 per cent, to 691½p, although they would need to double to get back to where they were in the summer of 2019, before Muddy Waters, the American short-seller, attacked the company's own accounting.

[williamcooper104] 02/4/2021 00:09

From the Times Burford Capital, one of the biggest companies on Aim, London's junior market, got a little bit bigger yesterday as Steinhoff, the troubled South African owner of Poundland, agreed to settle with some shareholders over an accounting scandal.In late 2017 Steinhoff shares collapsed after it revealed a host of accounting irregularities, including claims that former bosses had been inflating profits for years. Unhappy investors sought to recoup a chunk of their losses by suing Steinhoff and Burford, as a litigation financier, has been funding some of the lawsuits.Now Steinhoff has agreed to pay out $1.1 billion to those investors. Burford doesn't talk publicly about individual cases and so it is unclear how much will go to it and its clients. That said, analysts at Jefferies expect the sum to be significantly higher than the money Burford invested.

[williamcooper104] 02/4/2021 00:02

Exactly; some Bur shareholders don't want to hear anything blasphemous and think that anyone who sold as the share price went from high teens to low single digit share price is a "weak holder"

[saltraider] 01/4/2021 23:41

Duplicate post.

[saltraider] 01/4/2021 23:32

@Maddox ...methinks you are overdoing it with your comments referring RAR100. He/she may be painfully cautious re. BUR. Fine ... painful cautiousness is a very respectable investor stance and I think we benefit from hearing that voice. It isn't in perfect harmony with our natural bull narrative. Great and very good for us to hear.

Keep it coming.

[donald pond] 01/4/2021 21:11

BUR finished in the US at 991c/£7,22 equiv on decent volume of 200k. So Tuesday should see a markup to start us off.

[donald pond] 01/4/2021 20:53

Thanks Martin (see what I did there) for the Morgan Housel heads up. I heard a podcast with him talking about John Law so will get the book. BUR up 10% in US. I'd love it to be a sea change but it could just be the employee benefit scheme buying. Hopefully a sea change, this is massively undervalued as we all knowHave a good break folks

[nigelmoat] 01/4/2021 20:09

As I have said before Mr Market appears to move the share price here with ease on small volume and no news. Today we have a move of over 10 percent on less than a half percent of share turnover. Nice when as a long term holder it's in the right direction! Can't help but think Mr Market wakes up and thinks it's the Easter break and we need to justify some good wines. Let's hope Mr Market doesn't wake up with a bad hangover on Tuesday morning.

[stentorian] 01/4/2021 19:36

rar100,

Devalpha's right - the 2020 AR is a must read. At 225 pages at is a lot but bear in mind that the Form 20-F is included. FY19 was only 160 pages. FY10 was just 32 pages - bless!

Do you know how many sidecars BUR have?

[devalpha] 01/4/2021 18:54

rar100Have you read the FY20 annual report?If not, then I suggest you put in the work and read it asap.If you do this, you'll find the answers to a lot of the questions you're asking on here.Another tip....read chapter 15 of the Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel. It's the best piece I've read on how to think about volatility since Ben Graham's Mr Market analogy.

[rar100] 01/4/2021 17:46

Thanks for that Stentorian,
I'm very pleased with the rise today, hope it won't be profit taking on Tuesday
It's these figures that are concerning, hopefully next interims are v good


Annual Returns % (GBP)31/03/2021
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Burford Capital Ltd 196.35 102.51 44.51 -56.39 -0.14 -11.67
FTSE 100 TR GBP 19.07 11.95 -8.73 17.32 -11.55 -

[ptolemy] 01/4/2021 17:05

Nerdy fact. Today was the largest daily gain since 7 May 2020. And the 10th largest since 24 July 2018.

[stentorian] 01/4/2021 15:45

rar100, see page 33 of the 2020 Annual report (page 51 of the PDF)

"Current portfolio
We count each of our contractual relationships as an “asset”, although many such relationships are composed of multiple underlying litigation matters that are often cross-collateralized rather than reliant on the performance of a single matter. As of December 31, 2020, our Burford only balance sheet portfolio consisted of 159 assets held directly and four other assets held indirectly through our investment in the Strategic Value fund."

page 47 of the 2020 Annual Report (page 65 of the PDF) there is a case breakdown by geography, currency, type and industry. "Burford only" cases are 2,886.

[compo62] 01/4/2021 15:37

Glad I am not a day trader - I would have bet my shirt on the usual collapse in the afternoon. I would have given it zero chance of continuing up to £7. Certainly seems to be a shift in sentiment somewhere...