Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[devalpha] 11/8/2019 15:55

For anyone that's read Oliver Shah's Burford commentary in the Sunday Times today, after I stopped laughing I felt I needed to reply. It appears the ST are now resorting to tabloid journalism ... here's my reply to his email address, although I'm not expecting a reply any time soon.Dear Oliver,I rarely respond to articles written by financial journalists but having read your articles on Burford Capital in today's Sunday Times, I need to make an exception.You clearly haven't taken the time to read any recent Burford half year or full year reports before publishing your articles.If you had you would know that Burford only accounts for a small percentage of unrealised gains in cases where the litigation is nearing conclusion, and there's a more than reasonable degree of confidence regarding a positive outcome. In many cases, unrealised gains are not accounted for at all. You quote Marius Nasta of Redress Solutions as saying, "Forecasting what defendants will do in litigation is like trying to forecast the weather two months in advance."If you had taken the time to read any of Burford's recently issued reports you would have known that since inception in 2009, in all cases where Burford have booked a small conservative percentage of unrealised gain, in only two cases out of the multiple hundreds they've invested in have they had to readjust the gain. I see no mention of this in your article or the fact that they only realise a small percentage of unrealised gains when they assess that the likelihood of success is extremely high. I guess from your point of view, even if you were aware of these facts, which I doubt, it wouldn't make as sensational a story?With all due respect to Redress Solutions, the quality of the legal team making the legal assessment on what cases to invest in, or when close to conclusion, the likelihood of success is a major factor. Burford are the clear leaders here with the team headed by Jonathan Molot. Have you even heard of Jonathan Molot, his background etc?You also say, "But the damage has been done. Law firms are lining up to sue Burford on behalf of investors who feel they have been duped. The litigation funder is now the target."Really, where did you get this information from? Did you read it on some bulletin board?You also say, "Litigation funding is fundamentally unsuited to the public markets. Burford may not be guilty of every amped-up allegation Muddy Waters makes, but I doubt this story will end happily."I'd be interested to know how much you actually know about litigation funding. Had you even heard of Burford before the events of last week? From your comments in the Sunday Times today, you've exposed your lack of knowledge of both this company and the field. You should be reporting facts not loose sensationalism.This is the kind of reporting we expect from tabloids, not The Sunday Times. When you make comments like, "I doubt this will end happily," after clearly showing that you haven't even read any recent reports or have any real understanding of the business, I think all serious investors in this company will recognise your naivety.Time will tell, but I suspect your lazy journalism here will make you look more than a little naive at best when the dust settles here.Finally, if you resort to tabloid like reporting on business matters when writing for a supposed quality newspaper, then you are just adding to the momentum behind the fundamental decline in the quality newspaper industry.I'd welcome any response you may like to make.

[sapper2476] 11/8/2019 15:35

There are a lot of Walter Mitty’s here.

[gettingrichslow] 11/8/2019 15:28

SweetK seems to think, with her constant comparisons of BUR and IMF Bentham that if you have been doing business in a particular sector longer than your competitors, then you will surely have higher profitability and market cap than your competitors...otherwise something ‘must be wrong’

Does that work when comparing B&M Retail with Woolworths?
Does it work when comparing Apple and Nokia?
McDonalds and Wimpy Hamburgers??

[winsome] 11/8/2019 15:01

Re the unrealised gains business that is proving controversial to some. Maybe its just brain freeze after past week but seems to me BUR might be doing themselves a disservice by continuing with this method. Looking at their cash receipts v revenue since 2010, the unrealised gains helped boost revenue higher than actual cash coming in, as you would expect in the early stages. But past 4 years the cash receipts have been exceeding revenue, implying that those unrealised gains from previous years are becoming realised. FY2019 cash receipts were nearly $100m more than revenue. But that extra cash has to be allocated to previous years' unrealised gains. So if I'm right, under IMF Bentham's accounting model, revenue and PAT would actually be higher for 2019 and going forward.

If I'm talking rubbish, explain to me why and I'll take a break.

[williamcooper104] 11/8/2019 15:00

I assume they'll go short again before publishing

[sapper2476] 11/8/2019 14:53

Top riser. That is your first post since 2014 and your second post ever. Sod off with your multi alias

[sidjameslaugh] 11/8/2019 14:51

Ps. They have already de- risked. Their short is almost 0. What are you talking about.

[mad foetus] 11/8/2019 14:49

WC, that's the problem now for them. It is very hard to argue that you are not manipulating the market if you issue a bearish note in order to buy shares more cheaply. I think they are in big trouble as the fall in the share price on Tuesday meant that they were left buying shares while tweeting negatively. I think there is a big chance this ends bankrupting MW and with CB never visiting Europe for fear of being extradited to the U.K.

[topriser] 11/8/2019 14:48

idiotsinthedarkRIZandLINTARD is IMPOTENT

hahahahahahahahah

[sidjameslaugh] 11/8/2019 14:46

So basically a bulletin-board full of random guessing. Switching off.

[williamcooper104] 11/8/2019 14:43

Would have thought MW will respond when markets are live They have a free hit as the share price is likely to instantly tank allowing MW to de-risk

[blah blah] 11/8/2019 14:39

If Gotham follow through, would expect to see their report later today / this evening. If they don’t there could be the response from MW before market opens tomorrow. Depending on how credible either or both of those are should set the tone for the open tomorrow. If it’s more of the same or no response would expect to see shares drift higher.

[williamcooper104] 11/8/2019 14:38

Best of luck I'm buying equity and will be trying to short any rapid falls to lower my overall in cost (that's the theory - the execution of it may not be so simple :)

[nobbygnome] 11/8/2019 14:35

I've spent so much time readings this fascinating thread the last few days, I feel like I have to make a small bet one way or the other tomorrow morning. FWIW I am tending towards a long position rather than a short one at present....but that may change!

[williamcooper104] 11/8/2019 14:28

I've no crystal ball But likely to bounce Monday morning - agree lots de-risked into the weekend Will dip when MW follow up - and probably rally after

[mad foetus] 11/8/2019 14:26

What we could also do with is stopping this not updating the market nonsense. Our latest results beat expectations. We should have issued an RNS well before saying that we expect to materially exceed market expectations and for revenue to be in range x-y and profits a-b. But if profits continue to grow at 40% pa, the share price won't stay at these levels.

[papy02] 11/8/2019 14:22

Ray Dalio has built Bridgewater on the principle of systematising/ automating trading. So their systems best in class. Yes that CTO CV sounds ideal.

[haveapunt1] 11/8/2019 14:16

Peoples thoughts on open tomorrow?

Many sold on fear of more bad news the weekend to de risk which hasn’t happened

People now too scared to hold

Nose dive? Continue to climb £9?

God knows

Games will be played and maybe a fall
On open before bouncing but can’t see any fall over 10-15% IF it even falls

Thoughts?

[mad foetus] 11/8/2019 14:14

Bridgewater is Ray Dalio's firm. He is the top investor in the world imo.

[buywell3] 11/8/2019 14:13

I just love court action scenes

Picking the jurors … great bit of drama there , racial issues etc

And a film set in the courts for 50% of the time about listed legal companies slugging it out with each other in front of a lady judge .


buywell confidently predicts BUR will make the silver screen


Done right with the right scriptwriter

Such a film could gross $500 Million plus --- which makes buywells rates = peanuts

And note

This was buywells idea first

[brexitplus] 11/8/2019 14:04

Urban, he sounds like a man you want in your team.

[brexitplus] 11/8/2019 14:03

Mad, private equity has even more lumpy returns and subject to similar valuation to Burford. Burford has faster average returns at 1.7 years.

[urbanvoltage] 11/8/2019 14:02

Speaking to CDR, Burford’s chief executive Chris Bogart says that as one of the top 100 largest companies listed in the United Kingdom, narrowly the story is about legal finance and how it continues to grow, but “more broadly, it’s about the fact that the legal industry is slowly transforming itself into a capital user”......Chief Technology Officer
Mr. Thieberger has over twenty years of experience in financial services technology on both the buy-side and sell-side, with an emphasis on trading systems, risk analytics, cybersecurity and data management.

Prior to joining Burford, Mr. Thieberger was head of Trading Technology at Bridgewater Associates, a large hedge fund based in Westport, CT, where he designed, built, and supported algorithmic trading systems, real-time market data systems, and pre- and post-trade analytics platforms. Before his time at Bridgewater, he spent 11 years at Credit Suisse as head of Global Foreign Exchange Technology where he was responsible for the data and technology platforms used by Foreign Exchange traders and analysts globally, and as head of Enterprise Architecture for the New York office.
Mr. Thieberger has two graduate degrees from Columbia University and a bachelor’s degree in Computer Science from Cornell University. He is a member of the Association for Computing Machinery and serves as an alumni admissions representative for Cornell University.

[brexitplus] 11/8/2019 14:01

Nothing in it, was there? Gotham will want to avoid any legal action. MW would have wanted more support than that, but have been left dangling. Hopefully Burford will cut the rope, and quickly.