Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[stoxx67] 05/6/2019 09:19

anyone have an idea as to the BUR holding Woodford still has left?

he's already placed enormous pressure on the Burford share price by selling large and frequently ( because he had to ).

i'll be glad to see the back of him and his fund, forced sellers are a nightmare !!!

[lomax99] 05/6/2019 08:21

Perhaps the SWF might like to take over Woodford's holding? If not, there should be a number of willing takers. The Woodford suspension is likely to take a minimum of 3-6 months, roll on our results in July...

[gettingrichslow] 05/6/2019 08:18

Not sure about that. Could it be that the reason BUR share price is as low as it is already is because of the market anticipating Woodford selling in the future that may now never come (or be less severe than anticipated)? If that was the case, then him effectively converting his fund into a pseudo-passive fund may attract BUR buyers back out? Noting Kier up 7% too on a similar basis?

[lomax99] 05/6/2019 08:17

Thanks bestace - any views on the likelihood of the Supreme Court doing a u-turn? I would have thought the chances were minimal, if so just a delaying tactic?

[brexitplus] 05/6/2019 08:16

I looked at the Woodford portfolio. I agree, selling the unquoted will be difficult. And there are loads of failing listed like AA, Kier, PFG that will push the share price down even further, Its a downward spiral.

[sogoesit] 05/6/2019 08:14

"Market commentary" indicates, whether or not Woodford has sold or will sell BUR, the expectation is that there will be sales. That has, and will, put downside pressure on our share price

This from Vox Markets today:
"The downfall of Neil Woodford sent shock waves through the stock market as shares tumbled in companies linked to the once-feted fund manager. The 59-year-old stunned ordinary savers and the City by blocking withdrawals from his flagship Woodford Equity Income fund after the market closed on Monday. The move triggered a brutal reaction yesterday as regulators faced calls to step in and industry experts said Woodford was having ‘a dark and terrible moment’. Shares in another of his funds, the listed
Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT), plunged as much as 20% as investors lost faith in the fallen star. Fund supermarket Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.)and wealth manager St James’s Place (STJ), which have billions of pounds of their clients’ money invested with Woodford, also saw their shares slam into reverse. A host of companies held in the Equity Income fund fell as investors braced for Woodford to sell shares to free up cash for savers seeking to withdraw money. Among those worst-hit were drugs company Circassia Pharmaceuticals (CIR), where Woodford has a 28% stake. Technology investor Allied Minds (ALM), where he holds 27.4%, also took a battering as did online mattress seller Eve Sleep PLC (EVE), where he owns 46.8% of the stock.

Neil Woodford was dealt another blow last night after the proposed takeover of
Provident Financial (PFG)collapsed. The embattled fund manager owns nearly a quarter of the doorstep lender’s shares and was one of the most prominent backers of a hostile bid by Non-Standard Finance (NSF)
. But NSF has abandoned its pursuit of the Provvy after months of wrangling. It is understood that the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) effectively killed the deal by raising concerns about the financial structure of the proposed business. The collapse of the plan represented another blow to Woodford, 59, as he grapples with a crisis at his flagship fund. As well as owning 24.7% of the Provvy, Woodford has a 25.7% stake in NSF."

[williamcooper104] 05/6/2019 07:58

In specie redemepton and conversion of the small cap/unquoted into an investment trust is probably best way of resolving.

[williamcooper104] 05/6/2019 07:57

It’s curtains for Woodford

His Bur holding will be sold/massively reduced

He may want to keep it but he can sell it - which is more than can be said for the stuff he would like to sell

[mad foetus] 05/6/2019 07:55

He took home over £30m last year. The decent thing would be to shut up shop, except the illiquid stuff, and go into run down mode. BUR is probably the one share he holds that someone might accept as an in specie redemption.

[shanklin] 05/6/2019 07:52

LOL, how could Woodford guarantee selling stuff for which there is no market. As has been posted previously, the only way he could generate cash quickly is through organised placings of his quoted holdings... ...which may not serve his investor's best interests long term, but he seems not to have been doing that for quite a while.

[brexitplus] 05/6/2019 07:50

Getting

I think that when it opens again there may be a rush to get out because of the poor performance of the listed shares he holds, like Kier and AA. Then there really will be forced selling. The Focus fund, without unquoted and illiquid shares is doing badly too. Confidence is shot.

[time_traveller] 05/6/2019 01:25

I think the assumption is, he will have no choice.

[gettingrichslow] 05/6/2019 00:04

Not sure why so many on here are still talking about selling pressure from Woodford. If you watch the video he has just released it makes it quite clear that he will only be selling out of unlisted and unquoted stocks. That's not BUR.

[djderry] 04/6/2019 16:06

Well,I'll be getting over a thousand pounds in dividends!!( Actually,most of the holdings in pension funds ,so no access,but still.)

[galatea99] 04/6/2019 13:11

This other FT link is also worth the read daily:

[brexitplus] 04/6/2019 13:04

Thanks Galatea - Good link

Of course, Invesco with 15% hold a lot of the same shares as Woodford. Performance there bad as well.

[galatea99] 04/6/2019 12:51

The Woodford effect on a whole bunch of shares, top topic in FT Alphaville:



Burford by no means the hardest hit.

[steeplejack] 04/6/2019 12:40

Yes,there’s the Woodford factor but I think the effect is magnified with Burford because it’s somewhat unique as a listed vehicle unlike Taylor Wimpey for example.
It’s very hard for fund managers to consistently outperform year in year out.The judgemental quarterly report doesn’t sit easily alongside the vagaries of algorithmic trading.I can see a continuing decline in stock Exchange listings,both sides of the Atlantic,making it very hard for managers to pick out fresh winners.That said,Woodford has bent a few rules with this unquoted element and locking in frustrated fund holders could be a foolish move with serious repercussions.Hey ho,hero to zero for Neil then,’every man kills the thing he loves’ as Oscar Wilde observed and no more so than the English press.

[greatballsoffire451] 04/6/2019 12:25

Cant see this rallying either. Will stay on my watchlist as I think there may be value at some stage.

[ltcm1] 04/6/2019 12:22

If you look at the chart there is a big 'W' on it, bad omen!

Chart is very choppy can see it going to 1000 on this downtrend.

[steptoes yard] 04/6/2019 12:14

Terrible manager, got lucky with his listed picks then hubris reigned supreme, started his own gig (red flag in itself) attracted a load of mugs into his ring and now they are stuffed.

[ilostthelot] 04/6/2019 11:42

I'd expect it will fall further until the selling pressure from Woodford holding has cleared. Buying opportunity, no one knows how low it will fall my best guess is £10.

[williamcooper104] 04/6/2019 11:18

Just topped up (only a little) will too up a little more if we go down to £14

[maddox] 04/6/2019 11:00

This is a blip and a good opportunity to top-up so what's the problem? This liquidity will allow the shareholder base to widen - reducing the concentrated holding - problem solved without the overhead of joining the main market.