Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[runthejoules] 30/5/2019 12:59

Jonwig, thst’s What I was banking on, I love a forced seller and I bet Woodfprd’s spent the lot on scratchcards.

[cockerhoop] 30/5/2019 12:29

Glaws,

Ok, so if the realised gain of $87m is booked in 2018 (Note 7 seems to confirm this) then the fair value adjustment must have been reduced by $56m to reflect the transfer of the previously booked unrealised gains to realised.

Just trying to get my head around the process and comparing it to the Ccg Research Note.

[glaws2] 30/5/2019 11:09

I would have thought that 2018 would be a realised gain of $87m (but I'm no accountant)

[cockerhoop] 30/5/2019 10:47

Guys,

Regards Teinver are the following numbers how you'd expect to see the realised/unrealised gains appear in the respective year accounts?

End of 16 realised 0 unrealised $17m
End of 17 realised 0 unrealised $39m
End of 18 realised $31m unrealised 0
H1 of 19 realised $7m unrealised 0

[mad foetus] 30/5/2019 10:29

The last time he reported BUR was his second biggest holding after BDEV, but he has a lot of illiquid stuff in there. The FCA should imo step in and sort it out as it is a death spiral now that is destroying vast amounts of capital.

[lomax99] 30/5/2019 10:24

MF - It must be killing him to have to sell these, when might we be due a holdings RNS? It may be worth tracking Woodford's monthly fund updates.

[cockerhoop] 30/5/2019 09:53

Jonwig,

Arden
Valuation: At 2.8x P/NAV we believe the Group’s ROE consistently in
excess of 25% (despite investing significantly in new cases, therefore
inflating NAV) and ROIC of 85% is undervalued and re-iterate our target
price of 2,300p.

[mad foetus] 30/5/2019 09:27

FT reporting that Woodford main fund dropped in value by £560m from £4.33bn to £3.77bn in less than 4 weeks. It was £10.2bn 2 years ago. Given BUR is it's second biggest holding at 5.68%, he must be selling some. Maths would suggest around 2m shares worth in the last 4 weeks, all other things being equal. It is huge selling pressure, and may continue, but for anyone with a long-term perspective, it presents a fantastic opportunity. I suspect share price would be £25/30 right now without that selling pressure.

[aishah] 30/5/2019 09:26

Liberium re-iterate BUY. tp=2470p

[jonwig] 30/5/2019 09:10

Shanklin - as it stands, you're right. But look at the downside potentially hanging over the matter, unlikely though it was. That needed to be cleared.

[papy02] 30/5/2019 09:10

The Teinver award is USD 320m plus pre and post award interest

[trident5] 30/5/2019 09:01

Does anyone know why they sold a binary outcome for $100m promising to pay back the $100m if the outcome falls the wrong way?

[shanklin] 30/5/2019 08:59

Don't think it justified an RNS, but definitely worth a non-regulatory RNS as useful background.

[brexitplus] 30/5/2019 08:49

I think the release was as much demonstrating the valuation process as the completion of the deal. Will be interesting if Canaccord raises its head.

[jonwig] 30/5/2019 08:45

Thanks all - yes, an extra $7m is small beer here.

[penpont] 30/5/2019 08:42

Arden make no changes to forecasts at present and reiterate target price of 2300p.

[monions01] 30/5/2019 08:41

The Arden note says that due to it being a small amount they have not changed their forecast. They reiterate their target price of 2300.

[bigbigdave] 30/5/2019 08:41

Arden re-iterate 2300 jonwig

[trident5] 30/5/2019 08:40

Does anyone know why they had a put option on this in the first place?

[jonwig] 30/5/2019 08:28

I see Arden Partners has dropped in a note on today's announcement. This is all I can read:

The Group has announced the dismissal of an annulment application against the Teinver case by the World Bank arbitration panel, meaning the put option on this case has now expired and it can recognise the full income for the 2018 sale. Not only does this remove the risk of reversal of previous income, further details in the announcement shows the conservatism in the FV marking of this case. We re-iterate our Buy rating.

Anyone help with more? A price target?

[nfs] 30/5/2019 08:02

They viewed the chances of paying back the 100m as remote so no need to provideThus no obligation in their view

[brexitplus] 30/5/2019 08:02

Good rise at opening.

[djderry] 30/5/2019 08:02

You tell 'em Burford!

[sogoesit] 30/5/2019 07:43

Ok, thanks for feedback.
I thought that carrying the put, with an obligation to pay $100m back, would have meant that that obligation would have required a provision of $100m on the balance sheet.
It's all a P&L issue in that case.