British Land Share Discussion Threads

[dandanactionman] 09/11/2022 16:41

All imho dyor (I am long this stock)I believe results next week. Any thoughts on what to expect.I think results themselves will probably be good but it will be comments on future that will be interesting?

[porsche1945] 12/10/2022 14:01

When does the dividend get cut or suspended? Let’s face it blnd has “ form “ on that front despite being a reit.

[nickrl] 11/10/2022 19:55

@porsche not sure we will see that level of rates as that would bring massive grief to the housing market and potentially the banking system. Yes people are on fixed rates but c100k come up for remortgaging every month currently and be lucky to get anything less than 5.5% now when they were previously sub 3% and that will bring on the pain for affordability far more than energy prices. Anyhow BLND are yielding 6.6% which makes them interesting but am weary of how much capex they have to commit into the likes of Canada Water but they have no significant debt refinancing due till 2025.

[porsche1945] 11/10/2022 11:25

U.K. interest rates need to be about 6/7 pc I guess which is roughly long term average anyway so it’s just returning to normal, but, what’s the point of owning dividend stocks with stock specific risk, when you will be able to pull 5 pc in cash in the bank.

[nickrl] 02/10/2022 22:22

porsche for sure all bets are off if we enter a deep recession. Currently I reckon we will see rents flatlining if not dropping back anyone believing the hype on reversionary rates being higher as majority of propcos are forecasting are living in cloud cuckoo land.

[orinocor] 28/9/2022 10:26

How long before property funds start being gated.
Cue another leg down.

[orinocor] 28/9/2022 10:25

Down 17% since Truss and Kartweng's mad budget. How many trillions have been knocked off the London commercial property market by these 2 idiots.

[williamcooper104] 18/9/2022 10:27

SF is particularly bad; other US markets aren't as bad - SF suffers from dependence on one industry, very high tax rates, many companies are locating to Florida and Austen So London is unlikely to be just as bad as SF - but that said - it's still pretty grim

[bondholder] 18/9/2022 09:57

Could this happen to the London office market?The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy has predicted that San Francisco commercial real estate values could plunge 43 per cent. City officials have begun to fret publicly about what the crash will mean for municipal finances.But as with any big bet, the key is timing, and commercial leases are long - typically ten years. Colin Yasukochi, of the Tech Insights Center at real estate firm CBRE, said a large proportion of leases expire in the next three years. This could trigger a bloodbath for landlords and their lenders. Yasukochi said: "Property owners realise we are not going back to where we were. The question is, will it come back 50 per cent, 80 per cent?"

[bondholder] 05/9/2022 08:09

Succinct analysis - thanks

[williamcooper104] 04/9/2022 11:02

Property yields are influenced by gilts but it's not a linear relationship If gilts spike to 5 percent but there's a feeling that that's reasonably temporary it won't have a huge impact on prop yields Just as it took literally years for property yields to properly price for QE/super low yields If gilts get to 5 and then 5 becomes the generally accepted new almost permanent normal range then v simply knock about 20 percent of the value of the property - or about 25-30 of the share price (but of course lots of other factors other than just gilts would influence that)

[bondholder] 04/9/2022 07:54

If the 10yr gilt goes out to 5% what do people think the share price here will be ?

[bondholder] 01/9/2022 10:12

Down 4.6% on the day. Fear is in the air.

[essentialinvestor] 23/8/2022 19:00

Macro news getting worse by the week atm, might pay to have some cash aside.
LAND preferable to BLAND but much the same sectors.

[nickrl] 23/8/2022 18:34

Porsche BLND as its peers are going to come under pressure but they have reasonable lease lengths to cover themselves for a few years as well as a stash of retail pks to give them some protection. So not so sure its going to get annihilated but certainly got a way to drop yet.

[porsche1945] 23/8/2022 17:06

With what is coming down the tracks at high speed for the U.K. economy BL is going to get annihilated, back to covid lows and worse, expect dividend suspension.

[williamcooper104] 22/8/2022 16:41

Totally - it was more a gentle pushing out than a retirement He's gone on with his son to make a fortune with their private venture - Delancey And even after getting shot of Sir John they had Andrew Jones but they didn't promote him and he's done far far better than BLND

[trcml] 04/7/2022 12:55

BLND lost its way when Sir John retired.

[bondholder] 02/7/2022 10:19

Fair point. This is the take of the selling agent Savills:"With such a substantial amount of capital chasing urban logistics opportunities within the M25 we were able to achieve an excellent price on behalf of our client."CEO will probably have retired before the final account can be made on the commercial wisdom of this purchase.

[essentialinvestor] 30/6/2022 15:55

Bond, made a similar point here when the London warehouse purchase was announced.
BLND angle is .. a 12 acre London site with significant development potential,
but logistics to me looks a horse already well run.

[bondholder] 30/6/2022 15:48

Going forward buying logistics assets at 2 or 3 percent yield. Hard to discern a coherent strategy to make reasonable returns for shareholders.

[essentialinvestor] 30/6/2022 14:55

William, fair comment!. Michael Slade has since moved on but still holds around 16%
from memory.

A good friend of my Dad's retired early having bought HLCL in quantity around 1993.

[williamcooper104] 30/6/2022 12:03

That's what having founder management with a big chuck of equity will do for you