British Land Share Discussion Threads

[shieldbug] 18/8/2020 11:21

Anyone know anything about Vicinitee - apparently it is a British Land owned software platform?

hxxps://www.vicinitee.com/

[williamcooper104] 18/8/2020 04:15

The attractive thing about the valuation was that the retail was basically free But that relied upon London office values holding up which absent WFH they did How they stand given that voids and market rents are likely to rise and plummet is the problem

[essentialinvestor] 17/8/2020 23:33

shield, physical retail was not experiencing a secular shift during the GFC,
that may need to be factored when lookimg at potential NAV declines.

Key to the valuation and any buy case is whether BLAND can Avoid a dilutive equity raise.

[shieldbug] 15/8/2020 09:45

In March 2009, Chris Grigg, himself only appointed 3 months earlier, oversaw the issuance of 340,873,589 new shares representing approximately 67% of existing share capital at 225p/share. Current share price was around what it was now.

I've no reason to believe that history will repeat itself. It should be some comfort that the guy in charge has been through a previous crisis.

This year or next year there will be a new CEO. Lets hope that his/her first action will not be to emulate the current CEO.

[shieldbug] 15/8/2020 09:21

Something to consider - UK property values fell (only) 45% during the GFC.

Today British Land (366p) trades at a discount to NAV (774p) of 52%. Meanwhile NAV itself has already fallen 14.5% from March 2019 and 20% from March 2018.

Debt is much lower this time around. Interest rates are significantly lower than yields. If the majority of retail tenants stay solvent and are able and willing to pay rent these discounts should look excessive.

[nickrl] 27/7/2020 12:14

Essential since capitulation day on 3/4 BLND have held up better than the others you quoted yet there proposition looks less viable for the reasons you state so they need to be below 300p for me.

[gisjob2] 27/7/2020 09:22

Exactly, who'd want to have large retail centres at the moment ?

[essentialinvestor] 27/7/2020 09:15

LandSec is the closest listed comparable and probably the fairest as such.

However, GPOR and in particular DLN have trouced both LAND and BLND over the
last 10 years. They stayed away from large shopping centres.

Where both LandSec and BLAND fell down was arguably in not realising the threat to retail asset values and divesting.

The real sector star has been Segro who effectively reinvented themselves.

[gisjob2] 27/7/2020 09:12

and what about pre-covid ?

[jonwig] 27/7/2020 09:04

gisjob - who are its peers?

You can't compare supermarkets, medical centres, bigbox warehouses, offices, retail malls with each other!

It has marginally outperformed LAND since March.

[gisjob2] 27/7/2020 08:57

Not doing a lot for the share price. BLND a serial disappointer when compared to it's peers.

[jonwig] 27/7/2020 08:39

arja - this any good?



It's a very positive article (relatively speaking). And PW (unlike the general business press) is close to the action.

[arja] 27/7/2020 08:19

could not open link Shieldbug . I wonder what the NAV is at the moment but probably too difficult to quantify and nowhere near historic figure quoted by ADVFN .
chartwise not looking good with a triple DB possible at about 310 in next month or so . But a bit of good news would help and a pity we have these Tory clowns running the country and the disaster of brexit .

[shieldbug] 24/7/2020 11:57

Here is Mike Prew's latest article on the subject - from yesterday.

hxxps://www.propertyweek.com/insight/this-time-reits-are-well-prepared/5109164.article#.XxqMpp5_nCc.linkedin

[shieldbug] 24/7/2020 11:55

If you recall that following the Brexit vote many turned bearish on London offices. Since Brexit not much London office has been built compared to what was planned at the time of the vote. In the same period investors have also turned bearish on retail. I get that this is changing but a lot of it is sentiment. Where sentiment and reality diverges, opportunities occur.

Is the discount to NAV justified? If they liquidated the portfolio over the next 3 or 4 years what would they get? Currently REITs are at a massive discount to property prices - whatever you think of the NAVs.

[arja] 24/7/2020 11:35

as buywell rightly says , the chart tells the story and it looks bearish. It is not a crystal ball ( they cost billions - smile ) but next best thing at giving an indication of what might happen. seems to show support at 340 area and then about 310 a possibility . Hope I am wrong for those holding stock and maybe for them a partial hedge is in order via a CFD short .

[gisjob2] 24/7/2020 11:29

Shielding,

I guess we'll see.

[gisjob2] 24/7/2020 11:24

The company I work for only had 1 desk for every 2.3 workers pre-pandemic. In the city centre office. Post pandemic only 30% of these will be available but not until September. But all staff I speak with are happy to work from home and the company was pro home working anyway, so don't see the office even existing in the near future.

[shieldbug] 24/7/2020 11:23

Gisjob - Mike Prew at Jefferies lead all of the other forecasts on British Land when they dropped the price significantly - I can't find a history of forecasts at the moment to show this. But they were right when everyone else (analysts) were wrong. So actually I think he is worth paying attention to.

[shieldbug] 24/7/2020 11:16

Its Time To Buy - "Prew said he was repealing his “uniquely contrarian bear call” after five years, as the economic consequences of Covid-19 “purge legacy asset over valuation so NAVs get credible again”."

2nd April 2020 - hxxps://www.egi.co.uk/news/jefferies-prew-says-its-time-to-buy/

In a Property Week article (April 2019) Mike Prew observed that "London office ‘densification’ has seen average space per office worker shrink from 100 sq ft to 80 sq ft over 20 years with more to go."

[gisjob2] 24/7/2020 11:16

They haven't got a clue and are always behind the curve anyway. They'll probably wait for it to drop 50p and then have a target of 250p.

[shieldbug] 24/7/2020 11:08

So look at this: JEFFERIES CUTS BRITISH LAND PRICE TARGET TO 424 (444) PENCE - 'UNDERPERFORM'

That was dated 3rd October 2019. So Jefferies think that British Land is more valuable post-pandemic than they did pre-pandemic?

[buywell3] 23/7/2020 21:49

It is very difficult IMO to find a decent investment that has cash , zero or little debt , a growth history , and most important :

Is NOT being damaged by the Covid-19 Pandemic

This is why we are seeing many small caps with Covid-19 related products rocketing up in value --- very few to go round --- and the punters are jumping on anything that is Covid-19 positive related re future earnings from such products.

Even a new large low tech PPE manufacturer floating on the LSE right now would IMO get away quite well

Something making quality washable/ disinfectable ( use 5 times to 10 times masks/capes/gloves/hats )
The throw away stuff seems to fall to bits and not give adequate staff protection

Thus the Health/Medical Sector does have some benefit BUT in many companies that have expanded into adjuncts and bought abroad --- staffing and production problems have muddied the waters.

Cancelled planned operations due to ICU 100% Covid-19 occupancy and other ward over-spill is hurting what were good Health/Medical Sector companies as well now.

buywell thinks KISS applies.

Keep it Simple Stupid

dyor

[essentialinvestor] 23/7/2020 21:23

When a restaurant in Manchester has 1,000 applications for one position,
in just 24hrs, the word dire does not cover it.

Whether government support is withdrawn in October, would doubt that one.

Support may continue, in some form, into 2021.

BLAND's challenges predated COVID by several years, as clearly shown by the December 2019 share price v 2015.

[gisjob2] 23/7/2020 21:10

Agreed,

the high st. is in real trouble and so are businesses. My company have just decided to tear up plans for further office space and have started putting staff at risk of redundancy. All other staff are still working from home and have no plans to return at present. Without the office worker support the town centre is dead and retail and hospitality suffering as a result.

Months / years of this to come.

I think the retail issues are only just beginning, I think the situation will be much worse in a few months when government support runs out and unemployment rises.

Online shopping is the future and covid has brought us the future 5 years earlier than expected.

There's much better investment opportunities than BLND at the moment. I can't see any positive reasons for investment at the moment.