British Land Share Discussion Threads

[gisjob2] 24/7/2020 11:29

Shielding,

I guess we'll see.

[gisjob2] 24/7/2020 11:24

The company I work for only had 1 desk for every 2.3 workers pre-pandemic. In the city centre office. Post pandemic only 30% of these will be available but not until September. But all staff I speak with are happy to work from home and the company was pro home working anyway, so don't see the office even existing in the near future.

[shieldbug] 24/7/2020 11:23

Gisjob - Mike Prew at Jefferies lead all of the other forecasts on British Land when they dropped the price significantly - I can't find a history of forecasts at the moment to show this. But they were right when everyone else (analysts) were wrong. So actually I think he is worth paying attention to.

[shieldbug] 24/7/2020 11:16

Its Time To Buy - "Prew said he was repealing his “uniquely contrarian bear call” after five years, as the economic consequences of Covid-19 “purge legacy asset over valuation so NAVs get credible again”."

2nd April 2020 - hxxps://www.egi.co.uk/news/jefferies-prew-says-its-time-to-buy/

In a Property Week article (April 2019) Mike Prew observed that "London office ‘densification’ has seen average space per office worker shrink from 100 sq ft to 80 sq ft over 20 years with more to go."

[gisjob2] 24/7/2020 11:16

They haven't got a clue and are always behind the curve anyway. They'll probably wait for it to drop 50p and then have a target of 250p.

[shieldbug] 24/7/2020 11:08

So look at this: JEFFERIES CUTS BRITISH LAND PRICE TARGET TO 424 (444) PENCE - 'UNDERPERFORM'

That was dated 3rd October 2019. So Jefferies think that British Land is more valuable post-pandemic than they did pre-pandemic?

[buywell3] 23/7/2020 21:49

It is very difficult IMO to find a decent investment that has cash , zero or little debt , a growth history , and most important :

Is NOT being damaged by the Covid-19 Pandemic

This is why we are seeing many small caps with Covid-19 related products rocketing up in value --- very few to go round --- and the punters are jumping on anything that is Covid-19 positive related re future earnings from such products.

Even a new large low tech PPE manufacturer floating on the LSE right now would IMO get away quite well

Something making quality washable/ disinfectable ( use 5 times to 10 times masks/capes/gloves/hats )
The throw away stuff seems to fall to bits and not give adequate staff protection

Thus the Health/Medical Sector does have some benefit BUT in many companies that have expanded into adjuncts and bought abroad --- staffing and production problems have muddied the waters.

Cancelled planned operations due to ICU 100% Covid-19 occupancy and other ward over-spill is hurting what were good Health/Medical Sector companies as well now.

buywell thinks KISS applies.

Keep it Simple Stupid

dyor

[essentialinvestor] 23/7/2020 21:23

When a restaurant in Manchester has 1,000 applications for one position,
in just 24hrs, the word dire does not cover it.

Whether government support is withdrawn in October, would doubt that one.

Support may continue, in some form, into 2021.

BLAND's challenges predated COVID by several years, as clearly shown by the December 2019 share price v 2015.

[gisjob2] 23/7/2020 21:10

Agreed,

the high st. is in real trouble and so are businesses. My company have just decided to tear up plans for further office space and have started putting staff at risk of redundancy. All other staff are still working from home and have no plans to return at present. Without the office worker support the town centre is dead and retail and hospitality suffering as a result.

Months / years of this to come.

I think the retail issues are only just beginning, I think the situation will be much worse in a few months when government support runs out and unemployment rises.

Online shopping is the future and covid has brought us the future 5 years earlier than expected.

There's much better investment opportunities than BLND at the moment. I can't see any positive reasons for investment at the moment.

[buywell3] 23/7/2020 20:49

Do the above look at charts when they pluck those numbers from the nimbus

Getting monies from businesses that have failed or are failing or are about to fail in the face of further lockdowns and people not going to Shopping parks/centres but buying online or having things delivered --- it going to worsen IMO

Retail is in dire trouble as this chart shows


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

The above is short term




free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


The above is a longer term possibility if Covid-19 continues and peoples shopping habits and needs change




free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


The above shows in red the severity of the fall (trend) has taken a turn for the worse ie steeper

Should it continue as is , then IMO blue support could be hit in 2021



All IMO dyor

[shieldbug] 23/7/2020 10:47

Jefferies - Buy with target of 460p (16th July)
RBC Capital Markets - target 425p (19th June)
UBS - 525p (June 16th)
Goldman Sachs - 426p (9th June)
Barclays Capital - 340p (4th June)
Deutsche Bank - 475p (28th May)

[porsche1945] 01/7/2020 10:09

Another classic ftse 100 dross company, its why you short the ftse 350 and invest in the S&P. Declining business model, evaporating dividend and probable share dilution, all points to capital destruction while trying to secure a dividend rather than capital growth. The U.K. has done such a dire job with covid and the brexit fiasco has damaged the country for years....why bother? Just buy quality in the USA and Asia, you really think fat Boris is going to turn this around. Get real.

[nickrl] 01/7/2020 08:41

June operational update



June rental collection rate stands at 88% offices 36% retail vs 97% and 43% for Mar qtr albeit this was at 30/4 so so not directly comparable. Retail was expected to be worse but when they say that 64% of estate is open in England it lays bare how many retailers are witholding/deferring rent currently. They are in discussion with a view to

"moves to monthly rents, deferrals and partial settlement of March and June rents, typically in return for the removal of lease breaks, lease extensions, reduced incentives or commitments for additional space"

You would have thought by now they would have worked a lot of this through expectations or not but other than saying we expect it to improve over the next few weeks they are silent.

[shieldbug] 17/6/2020 12:23

Completely missed Chris Griggs to step down as CEO. (Also completely missed Brookfield acquiring Oaktree as well)

hxxps://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1582699991948636800/press-british-land-chief-executive-chris-grigg-set-to-step-down.aspx

[essentialinvestor] 10/6/2020 23:26

Corporate website:

[flyfisher] 03/6/2020 09:07

Any opinions on Brookfields intentions?

[flyfisher] 02/6/2020 16:24

Unibail Rodamco announcement seems to have firmed up the sector, especially HMSO.

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield successfully completes the disposal of five French shopping centres valued at more than €2bn
Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (URW) today announces the successful completion of the disposal of a portfolio of five shopping centres in France to the Joint Venture (JV) formed by URW, Crédit Agricole Assurances and La Française, announced on February 12, 2020.

As at today, three of these centres have re-opened post the COVID-19 restrictions, showing encouraging footfall performance - with Alma in particular already at around 90% of pre-crisis levels - as well as, based on information from tenants, higher average baskets and conversion rates. The other two centres will re-open tomorrow, May 30.

[gwlduncan] 02/6/2020 16:09

Possibly continued stake building. Latest asset value quoted of 774 included substantial marking down of retail properties.
hxxps://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/canadians-in-land-grab-of-uk-property-companies-d5s2smq8w

[loss-leader] 02/6/2020 13:48

Why the share price action today? LL

[essentialinvestor] 29/5/2020 07:33

Some of that assumes social distancing is a permanent feature, it's not imv.
Yes there could still be significant subsequent waves.

Whether companies decide they need less space is more valid.

[zho] 29/5/2020 07:26

From a couple of days ago:

"The enforced national experiment in working from home could have lasting effects, as British Land chief executive Chris Grigg happily conceded. On the other hand, the group also expects “the trend towards higher density offices and hotdesking to reverse”, which also sounds correct. Surviving office workers may demand, and be granted, more elbow room to practise social distancing. The net result for landlords could be a score draw."

[essentialinvestor] 28/5/2020 14:54

It will be extended imv, however there may be a comment made that those
companies that can pay should, which will be meaningless obvs.

[nickrl] 27/5/2020 16:36

On valuations they've been pretty aggressive in the retail group with an almost 50% increase on H1 write downs which in themselves weren't light touch. Dept stores down 40% across the year (ouch) and not sure many others have gone that far. IMO the office portfolio may suffer more setback than there eluding to but perhaps many of there tenants being financial institutions they will readily be able to tap into the liquidity sloshing around the system to avoid any collapses.

With 30% of the portfolio on a lease break/expiry over next 3 years there tenants maybe able to extract some easier rental reductions is a risk but also an opportunity to lock them in.

Rental is a tad higher on retail than some others have achieved for Mar qtr but with 40% of rent deferral agreed (£35m) for Mar qtr this gives an indication of what is likely in June qtr as well.

Development spend commitment is 76m til completion with positive rental agreed on the ERV's but not clear what is definite lettings and still under offer on the next two big developments in build which mean potential tenants may want to renegotiate or walk away.

Divi will have to be rebased by 50% imo but would still represent a favourable return on current share price but as per my stuck record what govt does on rent moratorium legal action is a key driver here.

[flyfisher] 27/5/2020 12:03

The LAND results had readied the market for a 15% write down in retail assets in the second half and that is broadly what we got, accordingly there were no shocks. The results webcast was modestly upbeat but they need more clarity on rent collection before reinstating the dividend.
Firm office demand and some early talks about a j/v partner for canada water, after arrangements only 7% of march rents outstanding and that is from listed companies.
Overall it was fairly positive.

[riskblue] 27/5/2020 11:21

Clearly no surprises, judging by the lack of comments.