British Land Share Discussion Threads

[shieldbug] 23/7/2020 11:47

Jefferies - Buy with target of 460p (16th July)
RBC Capital Markets - target 425p (19th June)
UBS - 525p (June 16th)
Goldman Sachs - 426p (9th June)
Barclays Capital - 340p (4th June)
Deutsche Bank - 475p (28th May)

[porsche1945] 01/7/2020 11:09

Another classic ftse 100 dross company, its why you short the ftse 350 and invest in the S&P. Declining business model, evaporating dividend and probable share dilution, all points to capital destruction while trying to secure a dividend rather than capital growth. The U.K. has done such a dire job with covid and the brexit fiasco has damaged the country for years....why bother? Just buy quality in the USA and Asia, you really think fat Boris is going to turn this around. Get real.

[nickrl] 01/7/2020 09:41

June operational update



June rental collection rate stands at 88% offices 36% retail vs 97% and 43% for Mar qtr albeit this was at 30/4 so so not directly comparable. Retail was expected to be worse but when they say that 64% of estate is open in England it lays bare how many retailers are witholding/deferring rent currently. They are in discussion with a view to

"moves to monthly rents, deferrals and partial settlement of March and June rents, typically in return for the removal of lease breaks, lease extensions, reduced incentives or commitments for additional space"

You would have thought by now they would have worked a lot of this through expectations or not but other than saying we expect it to improve over the next few weeks they are silent.

[shieldbug] 17/6/2020 13:23

Completely missed Chris Griggs to step down as CEO. (Also completely missed Brookfield acquiring Oaktree as well)

hxxps://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1582699991948636800/press-british-land-chief-executive-chris-grigg-set-to-step-down.aspx

[essentialinvestor] 11/6/2020 00:26

Corporate website:

[flyfisher] 03/6/2020 10:07

Any opinions on Brookfields intentions?

[flyfisher] 02/6/2020 17:24

Unibail Rodamco announcement seems to have firmed up the sector, especially HMSO.

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield successfully completes the disposal of five French shopping centres valued at more than €2bn
Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (URW) today announces the successful completion of the disposal of a portfolio of five shopping centres in France to the Joint Venture (JV) formed by URW, Crédit Agricole Assurances and La Française, announced on February 12, 2020.

As at today, three of these centres have re-opened post the COVID-19 restrictions, showing encouraging footfall performance - with Alma in particular already at around 90% of pre-crisis levels - as well as, based on information from tenants, higher average baskets and conversion rates. The other two centres will re-open tomorrow, May 30.

[gwlduncan] 02/6/2020 17:09

Possibly continued stake building. Latest asset value quoted of 774 included substantial marking down of retail properties.
hxxps://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/canadians-in-land-grab-of-uk-property-companies-d5s2smq8w

[loss-leader] 02/6/2020 14:48

Why the share price action today? LL

[essentialinvestor] 29/5/2020 08:33

Some of that assumes social distancing is a permanent feature, it's not imv.
Yes there could still be significant subsequent waves.

Whether companies decide they need less space is more valid.

[zho] 29/5/2020 08:26

From a couple of days ago:

"The enforced national experiment in working from home could have lasting effects, as British Land chief executive Chris Grigg happily conceded. On the other hand, the group also expects “the trend towards higher density offices and hotdesking to reverse”, which also sounds correct. Surviving office workers may demand, and be granted, more elbow room to practise social distancing. The net result for landlords could be a score draw."

[essentialinvestor] 28/5/2020 15:54

It will be extended imv, however there may be a comment made that those
companies that can pay should, which will be meaningless obvs.

[nickrl] 27/5/2020 17:36

On valuations they've been pretty aggressive in the retail group with an almost 50% increase on H1 write downs which in themselves weren't light touch. Dept stores down 40% across the year (ouch) and not sure many others have gone that far. IMO the office portfolio may suffer more setback than there eluding to but perhaps many of there tenants being financial institutions they will readily be able to tap into the liquidity sloshing around the system to avoid any collapses.

With 30% of the portfolio on a lease break/expiry over next 3 years there tenants maybe able to extract some easier rental reductions is a risk but also an opportunity to lock them in.

Rental is a tad higher on retail than some others have achieved for Mar qtr but with 40% of rent deferral agreed (£35m) for Mar qtr this gives an indication of what is likely in June qtr as well.

Development spend commitment is 76m til completion with positive rental agreed on the ERV's but not clear what is definite lettings and still under offer on the next two big developments in build which mean potential tenants may want to renegotiate or walk away.

Divi will have to be rebased by 50% imo but would still represent a favourable return on current share price but as per my stuck record what govt does on rent moratorium legal action is a key driver here.

[flyfisher] 27/5/2020 13:03

The LAND results had readied the market for a 15% write down in retail assets in the second half and that is broadly what we got, accordingly there were no shocks. The results webcast was modestly upbeat but they need more clarity on rent collection before reinstating the dividend.
Firm office demand and some early talks about a j/v partner for canada water, after arrangements only 7% of march rents outstanding and that is from listed companies.
Overall it was fairly positive.

[riskblue] 27/5/2020 12:21

Clearly no surprises, judging by the lack of comments.

[babbler] 26/5/2020 13:01

Results tomorrow.... Getting bought up.

[nickrl] 17/5/2020 23:21

Shield not that convinced yet they have a fair amount of retail. Also have got 26% of rent on lease break/expiry over next 3yrs so plenty of tenants have got an easy exit option. They also have £600m debt due next year according HY20 report but in there RNS of 26/3 they say nothing needs refinancing til 2024 so are they using RCF to cover off. £350m of it is a convertible bond which can be settled in shares so how much dilution is that going to bring?

Lets see what FY results brings on 27/5

[shieldbug] 17/5/2020 10:02

British Land and Land Securities tipped to ride out UK property recession - hxxps://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/919294/british-land-and-land-securities-tipped-to-ride-out-uk-property-recession-919294.html

I particularly like "Morgan Stanley has a wide view of BLND with a ‘bear case’ price target pitched at 300p on the assumption of a severe UK recession, the ‘bull case’ envisages a “back to boom” scenario with a 770p target."

[shieldbug] 17/5/2020 09:56

jonwig - Thanks for your considered comments in response to my rant.

[jonwig] 16/5/2020 10:16

shieldbug - just a few points, then I won't add more comment.

1) The detail in the remuneration report is government-directed. You'll also find stuff about carbon emissions.

2) The virtue signalling is survivalism! In 2018 FTSE100 CEOs earned 117 times their average worker. (In 1950 it was 20 times.) It's even higher in the US.

3) "High pay will be a key issue in 2020 as this is the first year that publicly listed firms with more than 250 UK employees must disclose the ratio between CEO pay and the pay of their average worker. Under changes to the Companies Act (2006), firms must now provide their CEO pay ratio figures and a supporting narrative to explain the reasons for their executive pay ratios. The first round of reporting will be seen in annual reports published in 2020." [CIPD] Wouldn't you take a pay cut?

4) Fund managers are becoming more activist. SLA seems to be voting against all remuneration resolutions on principle. Others are following. They will also be more willing to vote directors out who don't play by the new rules of the game.

5) Look at yesterday's sacking of the Royal Mail boss. His pay and conditions were obscene (run the company from Switzerland and commute). Why he was appointed is a mystery.

[shieldbug] 16/5/2020 09:48

For what its worth, cutting the dividend seems to me completely the right thing to do. Capital preservation is right in the present environment.

I was generally happy with the company's strategy going into the pandemic which is why I continued buying as the price dropped.

I don't believe the end of retail and the officeless future hype. Many people are going completely crazy working from home. Sure commercial real estate will change, change presents opportunity.

British Land has a great London portfolio and the team strikes me as being more innovative and a bit ahead of many of their peers.

[shieldbug] 16/5/2020 09:26

My point is really that if they can take a 3 month, 20% base salary pay cut now - why can't they do the work for 20% less all the time?

I have no problem with the company putting resources into charity at the moment. I just object to the virtue signalling of the directors.

It is the transfer of the goodness of the company to the goodness of the directors that annoys me. If the directors want to take a pay cut that's fine. If they want to give to charity that is fine - its their money they can do what they like with it.

This act of publicly taking a pay cut and then giving the money to charity is a way for the directors to dominate the company. 25 pages of the last annual report is dedicated to Directors Remuneration - another way they dominate the company.

Nickrl is correct when he says "There is real danger most propcos will be run for the benefit of BOD soon."

[nickrl] 15/5/2020 20:47

Shieldbug at least they are taking some pain, however modest, compared to majority who aren't offering up anything except platitudes about important dividends are to our shareholders (but our salaries must be protected first). There is real danger most propcos will be run for the benefit of BOD soon.

[jonwig] 15/5/2020 17:10

Shareholder dividend has been cancelled. I guess you'd be the only one cheering if the BoD took their full salary, and an extra cheer for their bonus?