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BGY Brit.Eng.Gp

772.00
0.00 (0.00%)
Last Updated: 00:00:00
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Brit.Eng.Gp LSE:BGY London Ordinary Share GB00B04QKW59 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 772.00 - 0.00 00:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
0 0 N/A 0

British Energy Share Discussion Threads

Showing 10001 to 10025 of 10575 messages
Chat Pages: Latest  411  410  409  408  407  406  405  404  403  402  401  400  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
02/3/2007
13:12
Only down because of general market sentiment.
sat69
01/3/2007
21:32
Banny - We've all taken a severe beating over the past few days.
sat69
01/3/2007
19:12
Wot no comments everyone shell shocked lol
banny3
27/2/2007
17:11
FTSE100 is down more than 2% today. The last time it drops like that was last year May / June. So if today's drop is a precursor to the reapeat of last year correction, there has certainly lots of brutal stuff to come. Since 9/11, money supply was almost doubled, most of which were sucked into property and 'equity release' and living a high life on borrowed time.
Govt is not unaware of money flowing into private equity buy-out. And they don't welcome it either. Since interest rates were down to below 5 or even 4, financing by means of debt has become so fashionable. But that could be coming to an end with the release next month of budget report by Brown.
Does any of you know Basle requirement for Banks. To put it simply it requires banks to keep a minimum equity requirement. (Can't recall the exact proportion but I think it's 8% or something) That sort of requirement would be placed on private or even public companies. Then all the debt-ridden companies stock will fall like hell overnight. Guess what would happen to a stock which is worth only £2 but trading at £3 or even £4 because of 'potential take-over premium'. If the new stringent requirements are put in place, then M&A activity will certainly slow down. And you know what would happen. I think next few months will be great for value-investors. Look at Renishaw, for example, and see how much debt it has. I am sure you will be surprised.

watwungyi
23/2/2007
19:14
Owston - Good analysis but should you not try to make some money from the trend?


For the last week it has been up and the buying continues.

olmert4
23/2/2007
18:54
Carer,

It was the gas shortage of last winter (and by the way at one point we had as little as 3 days gas supply) that frightened the government into action. It reasonably believed that if UK gas prices went above the continental price that the euro interconnector would flow to the UK at full tilt. sadly, this (and a few other very reasonable assumptions proved to be incorrect and the winter was milder than expected.

Since that wake up call (and the Russian crises mentioned) made the government realise that stable gas supplies and improved storage capabilities was a matter for urgent action. (typical UK gas storage was about 5 days whilst in Germany for example its about 5 weeks)

The government has hurriedly commissioned another European interconnecter to Norway, and improved storage capacity significantly as well as commissioned more LNG terminals. This has given us storage capacity and more stable supplies as north sea gas is running out fast.

There is a major interlink between the wholesale gas and electricity markets as 40%+ of our electricity is produced from gas. Because of technical factors in gas distribution gas power stations will be the first to be cut off along with industry.

Generally speaking UK electricity capacity is about 120% of peak winter demand (assuming everything is available) take off 40% supplied by gas and power cuts would have been a certainty.

Because of this tight gas situation over the last two to three years electricity prices went up as a result because the forward market realised how tight the gas supply might get.

Ofgem looked into the dynamics of the gas market in comparison to the European gas market and decided on the above changes. This is to ensure that UK gas prices remain comparable with the continent and are more stable (lower volatility).

As a consequence of the above gas prices have fallen and therefore electricity prices (dominated by gas generation) have fallen back to more normal levels. The peaks of the last two to three years should be viewed as an anomaly and not as a regular occurance.

Therefore I would expect the long term average forward electricity price to hover in a range between £22-27/MWH going forward.

That is why I believe that BGY may struggle in future once their forward contracts unwind. The Q3 results put the cost of generation at £26.8/MWH, not really competitive and the cost may yet increase.

owston
23/2/2007
13:19
Owston has presented some interesting posts,\often appears to be logical and believable. However, 18 Months is a long time, after that who knows what the power market is like. it will not take much to shake the market as once demontrated by the Russians cutting off the gas supply to the European market. BGY has done a good thing in fixing the forward price, it is the distributors who will suffer in the short term.
carer
23/2/2007
12:24
fantastic figures from french and german energy company EADS yesterday..interesting point made in their outlook statement 'looking to acquire stake,aquisitions and partners for projects in Europe in 2007'...read between the lines and i feel BGY is a contender..
maqsud
23/2/2007
11:36
Owston,

Another good post - Thank you.

I sold out yesterday at a handsome profit, but nevertheless I'm still positive and can see 450p in the very short term. This stock is very tightly held, and is moving wildly - in both directions.

sat69
23/2/2007
09:58
Nothing wrong with making a few quid during it's uptrend though.
olmert4
23/2/2007
09:33
Sat69.

Nothing has fundamentally changed any of the points I made on the BGY charts thread. The company is fundamentally a price taker and has no hedge against the wholesale market (other companies are vertically integrated and have retail/distribution operations) which generally means that which ever way the price goes just changes which half of the business makes the profits. BGY is one of the few pure generators.

There is no doubt that the trend in electricity prices is down while BGY's fundamental cost structure is going up - thats not a good combination. It will be insulated for about 18 months due to forward selling at higher prices but the market prices now will eventually feed through.

The plants are aging and repair costs are going up and unplanned outages remain high.

As I said, the only positive is the potential rigging of the electricity markets for carbon free generation which could push the wholesale price up or force polluters to subsidise non-polluters. This looks like a cert in my book and would be a major positive, however I'm not going to buy until they announce a review of the pricing structure.

New build is NOT a reason that people should be investing in BGY now as market players buy stock on the basis of its likely profit forecasts over the next 18 months to 2 years. To buy a stock that may be building something that may generate profits in 10 years time is forward thinking way ahead of the markets and you may have to sit a long time to see a profit on it.

It must be remembered that BGY is not flush with cash and the volatility of electricity prices and therefore income don't make it an ideal person to lend to. Therefore bond repayment prices would be higher yielding that other more stable borrowers with less income/profitability volatility.

For those confused the reconstruction saw the government take 65% of free cash flow in exchange for the decommissioning costs. The government gets paid first and then the shareholders get the rest.

Therefore 100% of shareholders = 35% of profits. What has been strongly rumored is that the government wanted to turn that income into a one off cash payment (lest it fall into enemy hands - a government of a different hue). To do so the government would sell that cash stream for equity. On a par basis that would mean the issuance of twice as many shares as are currently in issue and then the government would no longer take any cash.

In short, current business is deteriorating, new build profits (if any) are over the horizon and outages remain high.

Still negative? - Very much so.

Whilst not a chartist I do believe that you should let the trend be your friend and as yet I see no evidence that the price downslide is over.

owston
22/2/2007
16:51
Olmert, I got out today too - at 424p, and started crying when it continued rising to 427p. Feel quite chuffed now though!

Jeeves - I don't care mate. I'm no longer in. Will buy again if we hit 410p.

sat69
22/2/2007
16:48
sat,was that 8million sell ?
jeeves2
22/2/2007
16:35
Sat - I flogged mine today and have had another go on FPL. Hopefully better luck this time.
olmert4
22/2/2007
14:27
have,nt seen my wife bearish for sometime
jeeves2
22/2/2007
13:35
Owston,

Are you still bearish on the stock?

sat

sat69
22/2/2007
10:47
what about the silver,whos going to clean it ?
jeeves2
22/2/2007
10:41
You need to move Jeeves!

Blue Blue Blue

sat69
22/2/2007
10:05
its cloudy here,raining in fact
jeeves2
22/2/2007
08:25
Hi the other threads very quiet must all be shorters lol
banny3
22/2/2007
08:16
Mornin' All

What a nice blue mornin' . Blue blue blue

sat69
21/2/2007
22:24
Sat - Have done
olmert4
21/2/2007
22:17
Olmert,

Sold out prty for bgy!

sat69
21/2/2007
22:12
Good luck to you Sat as well.



What else you looking at then?

Are you still in PRTY?

olmert4
21/2/2007
22:10
Good luck Olmert. I think you'll get your 450p, but I'll probably be out at around 425p as I'm in quite heavy!
sat69
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