Braemar Share Discussion Threads

[edmundshaw] 22/5/2023 14:45

Cheers mfh & rivaldo

[rivaldo] 19/5/2023 08:38

Cheers mfhmfh, that'll bring in some more attention - here's what he had to say:

"One not on the podcast is Braemar where I have bought a few.

Markets are always wary of shipping cos as they are cyclical but I couldn't quite resist what looks like a nice bargain here.

A statement is due soon, but we already know the figures which were kindly recently produced.

And they look good. There's also a decent dividend.

Fly in the ointment? Well, it's possible 325 is the ceiling as they don't like going above

there. Then again a breakout could be quite a powerful signal.

Any other downside? Could the outlook statement coming take some shine off? Who knows but the share look well supported and potential as a nice tuckaway with a yield too."

[mfhmfh] 19/5/2023 06:36

NT says yesterday he bought in.

[1pvh] 18/5/2023 11:10

Be good that!!?

[rivaldo] 18/5/2023 08:51

Cheers Tole - reads well. Let's hope for 520p post-results.

[tole] 17/5/2023 18:40

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/braemar-strong-results-due-shortly/Braemar – Strong Results Due ShortlyBy Mark Watson-Mitchell 17 May 2023 4 mins. to readBraemar – Strong Results Due ShortlyDid you know that there are only two publicly traded shipbroking companies quoted on the UK market and Braemar (LON:BMS) is my favourite.Absolutely I make no apologies about returning to highlight the investment advantages of this undervalued group.With some 16 offices across the globe the company operates on a 24/7 basis, covering all the shipping hubs in offering its customers opportunities in both established and emerging markets.As a leading global shipbroker with offices in London, Singapore, Beijing, Geneva, Perth, Dubai, Athens, Mumbai, Aberdeen, Hamburg, Melbourne, Madrid, Palm Beach, Sao Paulo, Shanghai and Houston, the group is well-positioned to serve key industry players across different time zones and cultures. It delivers expert advice in Chartering, Corporate Finance, Research and Analytics, Operations and Risk Management.Its operations are diversified across Tankers, Dry Cargo, Sale & Purchase, Renewables, Financial and Offshore in order to generate a reliable, less cyclical income stream.The £96m capitalised group claims that to achieve success in the volatile world of shipping, you need the highest level of expertise and years of practical experience.And Braemar, with some 400 plus employees globally, offers just that to its clients.Group OperationsThe company's operations are diversified across tankers, dry cargo, sale and purchase, renewables, financial and offshore.It operates through three segments: Investment advisory, Chartering, and Risk advisory.The Investment advisory segment provides investment consultancy, new build advisory, sales and purchase brokerage, asset valuation, recycling/end of life, and capital raising and corporate finance.Its Chartering segment includes cost-saving solutions, creating and protecting deals, cross-desk collaboration, first-mover initiatives, and freight consultancy.The Risk advisory segment includes derivatives brokerage, asset utilisation, loan restructuring, loan portfolio management, and carbon offsetting brokerage.Sales Per Business And RegionOn a sales per business basis Shipbroking accounted for £94.66m of the group's 2022 turnover, some 93.4% of the group total, while Financial was £6.65m for the balance 6.6%.On a sales per region basis the UK accounted for £54.52m (53.8%), Singapore £19.42m (19.2%), Australia £12.57m (12.4%), Germany £2.49m (2.5%), the US £0.97m (1.00%) with the Rest of the World handling £11.34m (11.2%).Recent Trading UpdateOn 22nd March the group issued a Trading Update for the 2023 year's results.It announced that the business had achieved record revenue and record profitability for the year ended 28 February 2023 on a simplified business strategy.The company stated that it expected to report revenue for the year of not less than £150m (2022: £101.3m), with underlying operating profit of not less than £20m (2022: £10.1m).Cash generation had also been strong, expected to be in a net cash positive position of circa £6.9m at the end of the financial year (2022: net debt of £9.3m).Trading in the first few weeks of the financial year started well and the board looks forward to the rest of the year with confidence.The EquityThere are 32,924,877 shares in issue.The Braemar Shipping Services ESOP is the largest holder with 12.03% of the equity.Other large holders include Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Management (7.78%), Chelverton Asset Management (5.85%), Horizon Kinetics Asset Management (4.85%), Barclays Bank (Private Banking) (4.00%), Unicorn Asset Management (3.60%), and National Financial Services (2.72%).There are three private holders of size – Quentin Soanes (3.91%), Magnus Halvorsen (3.39%) and CEO James Gundy (2.36%).Broker's View – 520p ValuationAnalyst Ian McInally at Cenkos Securities estimates that the year to end February 2023 will have seen sales increase to £150.5m (£101.3m), more than doubling adjusted pre-tax profits to £19.5m (£8.9m), lifting earnings up to 50.1p (45.6p) per share and easily covering a 12.0p (9.0p) dividend.For the current year he is going for similar revenues at £150.5m, a slight lowering in profits to £17.3m, dropping earnings down to 42.4p but increasing the dividend to 13.0p per share.The year to end February 2025 he has pencilled in an increase to £155.0m turnover, £18.5m profits, earnings of 45.3p and a very much healthier dividend of 14.9p per share.The group which has a strong balance sheet, he suggests, will end up with £6.9m net cash for the end February 2023 year, then £13.3m this year and £18.2m next year.Based upon his estimates McInally computes that the groups' net assets will show through at £86.8m for the 2023 period, then £95.8m this year and £105.3m for next year.At Edison Investment Research Andy Murphy has fairly similar estimates to Cenkos Securities.He has a dividend discount model-based valuation for the group's shares of 520p.My View – On 5.8 Times Price-To-EarningsThe other quoted shipbroker is Clarkson (LON:CKN) which is valued ten times higher than Braemar, with its shares trading on 13 times current year earnings.That compares to Braemar's capitalisation of just £96m with its shares currently standing at 292.5p, which puts them out on a mere 5.8 times estimated historic earnings and yielding over 4.1%.The shares, which were up to 350p in September last year, have tremendous investment appeal at the current levels.I believe that the imminent announcement, of the group's final results for 2023, will give a very positive showing of that year's trading and a strong report on current prospects.These shares are cheap and should be in any investors portfolio whether looking for growth or income.

[rimau1] 16/5/2023 07:47

Thanks both, all rear view mirror stuff on BMS historical issues, hopefully the upcoming results will help close the discount. didn’t realise you were invested here MT?

[mount teide] 16/5/2023 00:08

shalder - spot on.

It will not come as a surprise to many shipping industry professionals - some like me have been calling for it for years - that since BMS refocused the business back to its core activity shipbroking, in a move which fortuitously coincided with a new shipping market cycle recovery stage, a major step change improvement in its fortunes has followed.

[shalder] 15/5/2023 22:10

r1:

I would suggest the disparity has been a function of the generally very successful expansion strategy at CKN compared with the missteps taken at BMS where some at least of the diversifications did not achieve the desired results. imo BMS have now rediscovered the virtues of "stick to your knitting", that broking is the core activity and the core source of profits. I think the comparative p/e rations might improve from here. e&oe!

[rimau1] 15/5/2023 12:11

Lets hope our recent team/desk acquisitions are bedding in nicely. Although we are highly cyclical i think a downturn is already priced in, BMS and Clarkson have derated around 10-15% this year i think. I have never understood the disparity in rating between here (x8) and Clarkson (x12), compelling value if the world avoids a deep recession.

[rivaldo] 15/5/2023 10:50

Yep. Nice to see the share price bouncing almost 4% already today. The prelims are due in the next couple of weeks at the latest. We already know that:

- the results will show record revenue and profitability, with over £20m operating profit doubled from last year's £10.1m

- BMS will have a cash pile of around £7m

- trading since has the 28th Feb year end has gone well and the Board are confident for this year

- there will be a 12p dividend, i.e a yield of over 4% and a 33% rise over last year

[dicktrade] 15/5/2023 09:30

fy23 results should be out this month and we already know they will be good

[ih_451482] 15/5/2023 09:15

Flying this morning. Gw

[ih_451482] 12/5/2023 09:28

I’m in at 284. Debt free, solid management team, strategic pure-play, supportive broker/analyst commentary. Possible 70% upside in share price And a placid forum. GL to all LTHs. Gw

[tole] 11/5/2023 12:08

An updated link herehttps://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/braemar-plc-"remarkably-low-valuation-on-strong-trading"-says-gervais-williams/4121118465Braemar Plc "Remarkably low valuation on strong trading" says Gervais WilliamsBraemar ShippingAmilia StoneBraemar plc (LON:BMS) is the topic of conversation when Co Fund Manager Gervais Williams of Premier Miton Investors caught up with DirectorsTalk for an exclusive interview to discuss the UK listed market and some of his holdings in Miton UK MicroCap Trust plc.DirectorsTalk asked: Moving on to the perhaps lesser-known world of shipping and shipbroking. Braemar plc has just released a very impressive trading update, could you tell us a bit more about the company?Gervais Williams said:"It's involved in shipbroking, it's like stockbroking, when you need a ship to transport oil and other products, they can book the ships for you. It's a very specialist market, the UK leads the world in this area.The key about Braemar is that it's actually gone through transition with a new leadership where it's taking market share. It's made some acquisitions and it's got a much more significant global footprint. Although it's trading pretty well, it's had some pretty strong trading statements in the last 12 months, it's valuation is still standing at a remarkably low level. We think that its cash generation is going to be quite strong in the next few years so it's absolutely the kind of stock we would love to have in the MINI trust.In Edison's latest company research dated 4 April 2023, it noted:The strong full year trading update confirms that Braemar is in a good position to capitalise further on robust markets and management action taken over the last two years. The debt-free balance sheet leaves Braemar well-positioned to drive its future growth strategy, as previously outlined. The trading outlook is promising and Braemar should be able to leverage its strong balance sheet in pursuit of strategic growth. We have raised our FY24 and FY25 estimates but retain our DDM-based 520p per share valuation.

[rivaldo] 04/5/2023 11:53

Cheers Tole, great to see BMS highlighted by Gervais Williams (and DKL too!).

Nice move up today - perhaps an overhang has been cleared.

[tole] 04/5/2023 07:44

https://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/6-small-cap-companies-overlooked-by-investors-with-gervais-williams-video/4121117882Miton UK MicroCap Trust (LON:MINI) Co Fund Manager Gervais Williams joins DirectorsTalk Interviews to discuss the current market situation.In this interview Gervais shares his thoughts on the high number of companies that have issued profit warnings, explains why the UK stock market is more attractive now and discusses several companies that he believes have been overlooked by investors, including:Coral Products (LON:CRU)Van Elle Holdings (LON:VANL) Braemar Plc (LON:BMS)Me Group International (LON:MEGP)Velocys (LON:VLS)Dekel Agri-Vision (LON:DKL)

[edmundshaw] 05/4/2023 12:44

Bramemar tripled since the nadir at the height of pandemic fears. Sadly it was not a prime target for me and the best I managed was 154p later in 2020. A mere double :((.

[rivaldo] 05/4/2023 11:46

Edison have increased their forecasts for this year to Feb '24 to 39.9p EPS (from 37p EPS), with a 13.5p dividend.

They retain their 520p valuation, i.e 67% upside from here:



"Valuation: 520p/share valuation retained

The trading update confirmed the positive underlying conditions for FY23 and the positive outlook for FY24, driven by good markets and strategic progress. Following the trading update, we retain our existing FY23 underling operating profit estimates, but raise FY24 and FY25 estimates due to more favourable FX assumptions, where we previously assumed that US dollar strength would reverse. This no longer seems likely in these more stable times, hence we assume a rate of US$1.22/£, down from US$1.37/£, in FY24 and FY25. We retain our dividend discount model (DDM) based valuation of 520p/share as our dividend forecasts are unchanged."

[rivaldo] 02/4/2023 11:48

No-one expects anything else from the Mail on Sunday :o))

But I'm always glad to see a smaller company in my portfolio highlighted in the national press and getting some attention.

And the conclusion that the BMS share price has serious upside from here to reach fair value is spot on.

[catabrit] 02/4/2023 10:13

Really poor journalism.

The fact they’ve trebled is meaningless. Then it had net debt and was a capital heavy complicated mess. Now it has net cash and is a capital light pure play ship broker.

[rivaldo] 02/4/2023 08:05

Nice tip update in today's Mail on Sunday from Midas:



Extracts:

"MIDAS SHARE TIPS UPDATE:

Economic conditions are turbulent but shipping is buoyant and industry specialist Braemar is riding the waves"

"Midas verdict: Braemar shares have tripled in three years and supporters believe they could rise still further, from £3.03 to more than £4.50. With dividends set to increase along the way, the stock is a firm hold for all but the most cautious mariners."

[rivaldo] 27/3/2023 09:50

Cheers Tole, a good read - the "very much" higher 470p target from Cenkos seems perfectly fair imo.

[tole] 25/3/2023 19:59

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/small-cap-catch-up-on-the-way-up/Braemar (LON:BMS) – Trading Update Underlines Low Value RatingThe Trading Update for the year to the end of February by this shipping and energy markets broker and adviser reported record revenues and profits.The group is expecting that the year will have shown revenues almost 50% higher at not less than £150m (£101.3m) and underlying operating profits of not less than £20.0m (£10.1m).Even cash generation will be shown positively with some £6.9m net cash at the year-end against a net debt of £9.3m).The finals will be announced before the end of May.Analyst Ian McInally at Cenkos Securities rates the £96m group's shares as a Buy, using a dividend discount model to value the shares at 470p each.His estimates for the end February year are for £150.5m sales, £19.5m profits, 51.4p earnings and paying a 12.0p (9.0p) dividend per share.This group's shares at the current 294p are substantially undervalued and look very capable of rising through the 350p level and then very much higher yet.

[edmundshaw] 22/3/2023 14:26

Right, MT. It helps we are now headed by an ex broker (at Clarksons Platou, tankers, for 10 years in the 80s-90s) rather than a posse of accountants or similar...