Braemar Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 02/4/2023 08:05

Nice tip update in today's Mail on Sunday from Midas:



Extracts:

"MIDAS SHARE TIPS UPDATE:

Economic conditions are turbulent but shipping is buoyant and industry specialist Braemar is riding the waves"

"Midas verdict: Braemar shares have tripled in three years and supporters believe they could rise still further, from £3.03 to more than £4.50. With dividends set to increase along the way, the stock is a firm hold for all but the most cautious mariners."

[rivaldo] 27/3/2023 09:50

Cheers Tole, a good read - the "very much" higher 470p target from Cenkos seems perfectly fair imo.

[tole] 25/3/2023 19:59

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/small-cap-catch-up-on-the-way-up/Braemar (LON:BMS) – Trading Update Underlines Low Value RatingThe Trading Update for the year to the end of February by this shipping and energy markets broker and adviser reported record revenues and profits.The group is expecting that the year will have shown revenues almost 50% higher at not less than £150m (£101.3m) and underlying operating profits of not less than £20.0m (£10.1m).Even cash generation will be shown positively with some £6.9m net cash at the year-end against a net debt of £9.3m).The finals will be announced before the end of May.Analyst Ian McInally at Cenkos Securities rates the £96m group's shares as a Buy, using a dividend discount model to value the shares at 470p each.His estimates for the end February year are for £150.5m sales, £19.5m profits, 51.4p earnings and paying a 12.0p (9.0p) dividend per share.This group's shares at the current 294p are substantially undervalued and look very capable of rising through the 350p level and then very much higher yet.

[edmundshaw] 22/3/2023 14:26

Right, MT. It helps we are now headed by an ex broker (at Clarksons Platou, tankers, for 10 years in the 80s-90s) rather than a posse of accountants or similar...

[rivaldo] 22/3/2023 13:42

Even Cenkos's 470p target would still leave BMS on a historic P/E of only 9.1 :o))

[catabrit] 22/3/2023 12:48

Less than 5x PBT on a cash-adjusted basis. Anyone holding this for the next 5-yrs will do incredibly well. I am tempted to buy it again and just lock it away.

[mount teide] 22/3/2023 11:42

Very encouraging results - Refocusing the business strongly back to its core activity shipbroking at this stage of the commodity/shipping market cycle, offers the potential to deliver a rating much closer to that historically given to market leader Clarkson.

[1pvh] 22/3/2023 11:03

I also held Braemar years ago diversified far too much and was a poor performer Been buying these now steadily over the last 12 months and have accumulated about a third of one percent of the company.Hope it's going to be a profitable journey!?

[edmundshaw] 22/3/2023 09:28

Historically, BMS was poorly run, which I think is the main reason for the low valuation; but the current CEO and board are righting the ship and the business growing in all the right directions now. Mr. Market has not yet woken up to the new reality, which of course makes for a great investment!

[edmundshaw] 22/3/2023 08:42

Hi rivaldo. I think the price is cheap now too, and added to a longer term position earlier this month too. BMS (and Clarkson) keep coming out with very positive updates, then the share price pops up then dwindles back on, as you say, broader market issues. Hopefully FY results will finally kick these up to a more sensible price range...

[cwa1] 22/3/2023 08:40

Always good to see you rivaldo, always knew you'd come round to my way of thinking eventually ;-)

FWIW, a snippet from Cenkos' update post the update:-

 Outlook and valuation. At the interim stage in November 2022, Braemar’s order
book was up 10% to $55.5m (FY22: $50.0m) and trading in the first few weeks of
FY24 has started well. The shares trade on very attractive multiples with an
underlying FY23E PE of just 5.6x and EV/EBITDA of 3.7x, considerably lower than the
main listed comparator, Clarkson Plc, which itself reported very strong FY22 (Dec YE)
results on 6 March 2023. With a forecast 12p dividend for FY23E, the shares provide
a prospective yield of 4.2%. At our DDM valuation of 470p, the shares would trade
on 9.2x and 11.0x FY23E and FY24E PEs respectively, still a substantial discount to
Clarkson (14.5x PE FY22A).

[rimau1] 22/3/2023 08:34

Welcome Rivaldo!

[1pvh] 22/3/2023 07:35

Yes excellent cash generation it seems as well. Hopefully cash is net if bonuses.Expected another p or so on the divi but maybe I'm being a touch greedy. Seems to be trading at a ridiculously low level at the moment.

[rimau1] 22/3/2023 07:28

Significant earnings beat on revenues (£150m vs £128m) and most likely earnings. Probably has BMS trading at 5x historic earnings with a useful dividend, when do we rerate??!!!!

[edmundshaw] 06/3/2023 08:34

I think so. Added this morning.

[cwa1] 06/3/2023 08:02

Nice, very solid results over at Clarkson...



...Particularly strong performance in the Broking segment

...hopefully a bit of a read across for BMS

[mfhmfh] 27/2/2023 09:37

CEO buys 10,000 shares on 24.02.23.

[tag57] 24/2/2023 17:28

Thanks Calabrit. I will take a look

[catabrit] 24/2/2023 17:08

I don’t have the figures to hand but they break this down in the presentations / reports.

[tag57] 24/2/2023 16:37

My only concern is BMS’s exposure to the container market, anyone know what share of revenue is gained from this sector?

[catabrit] 24/2/2023 15:29

Yeah I think it’s a great investment. I did own some prior to the spike in September.

I think the shipping broker model has a degree of embedded inflation protection in it too; the fees / rates will be priced off commodity prices so they get a bit of a toll on rising prices.

[whittler100] 24/2/2023 15:17

In my view, just some small holding sales going on today and with it, I would reckon some stops are being triggered followed by a few nervous punters taking fright. Then we see punters returning; that’s investing!

So, let’s have a look at what we know & if freely available to us without the need for speculation.
The business is transforming to be like its sector buddy Clarkson and is doing so at some pace yet still looks splendid value:
CKN PE 13.7, PEG 0.5, Yield 2.8%
BMS PE 7.2, PEG 0.2, Yield 3.9%

We know from the latest update from BMS that “the Group has continued to trade well since the release of its interim results in November 2022” & that “and “both (acquisitions Dec 22) businesses are set to make an immediate and strong contribution to the Group's trading in the next financial year”.

So, unless there are some surprises, which whilst I doubt but one can never be certain, we should see a pleasing outturn for FY ending Feb 2023.

Note: the broker forecasts on SharePad were last updated 25/11/22 and revised ones for 23/24 will have to take into account the two December acquisitions.

Anyway, all just IMO & I have taken the dip to add further to my holding today.

[catabrit] 24/2/2023 15:03

I wasn’t expecting to see this thing in the 270s again.

[tag57] 24/2/2023 14:41

Looks like some share price manipulation today with single share purchases taking price down over 8% before jumping back up.