Bowleven Share Discussion Threads

[fft] 29/5/2018 05:36

BLVN are not the operator, and only a minor party, so let's hope that BLVN get the analysis and reports from the logging as soon as everyone else.

[symbo1] 27/5/2018 13:09

Rns states unnouncement after all drilling and testing complete only, so you could read that as only well after 150 days. Let’s hope not as I don’t like it when information is clearly in play even during first drill but it’s then held back, usually for the benefit of others. Let’s hope they tell it as and when it happens.

[3waysout] 26/5/2018 15:13

Has held up well given the wider sector doldrums. Considering that, my sense is that once clarity on oil outlook is clarified on the 22 June and if the results are as widely anticipated, then at that point we'll see the next bounce in share price

[warbaby43] 26/5/2018 07:48

Yeah, can't be anything like Mr Chahin's 100 days for drill and testing of IM-6 given that Topaz is only contracted to 7th October with rig move, set-up and drilling and testing of IM-7 also to be completed within the 150 days. Reasonable, therefore, to expect IM-6 results late July/early August, though I do wonder if they might be tempted to say summat if the shallower "510 Grinder" sands do show up really positive. That should then really ignite the share price for when Topaz gets down to the 410s primary target.

[gunsofmarscapone] 25/5/2018 11:10

Morning.

It’s a fair old time frame for our appraisal/exploration well, however I think our carry should easily cover it with some contingency. Have this one down as a possible increase Fwiw.

[uggy100] 24/5/2018 20:40

W w just have to wart & see what the appraisal's come up with, any thing else is pure conjecture. However Lukoil & New Age appear to be keen on the project so it's a wait & see scenario. Personally i'm comfertab;e wuith COC compared to the previous imcumbents

Time will tell.

[yasrub] 24/5/2018 13:35

I think BLVN has perhaps dropped below the radar. Some will be put off the upheaval of the old board and what went on before, but I believe COC have delivered. There are many in the sector that have limited funds and wild cat opportunities that seem to be valued sky high - ironic that BLVN have significant cash in comparison to Mcap and Etinde is already a world class asset - plus 2 APPRAISAL drills covered to the tune of $40m - I'm sitting tight just like COC I guess.

[buy_more] 24/5/2018 12:53

Chahin said the FLNG scheme is a multi-billion-dollar project... sais it all. we will have to wait and see...

[cyan] 24/5/2018 12:40

Well, from what we can already see towards the front of the storage locker there is, imo, around an easy 50% to add from here. If there is a big prize at the back ; 100% plus. What's not to like?

[hot_topic] 24/5/2018 12:37

This is a similar situation to 'Storage Wars'. COC have seen something hidden away at the back they think is worth a great deal more than what's initially apparent. This was the reason for their initial investment and the driving force behind their current strategy. They are prepared to wait until the big prize is revealed. Unfortunatley - like 'Storage Wars' - the Chippendale dining suite could turn out to be Ikea repros. Like them we'll have to wait and see. Interesting times ahead.

[buy_more] 24/5/2018 12:37

@benjimun, absolutely correct 👍

[benjimun] 24/5/2018 11:08

Log,
The previous BOD targetted the etinde appraisal as firming up the resources to a total of 2TCF and liquids at P90!
In recent upstream online article Eli Chahin said 'Bowleven's CONSERVATIVE estimate is that the two wells could find 1 Tcf of gas plus 200 million barrels of liquids'.

BLVN would expect to significantly improve upon that that, negotiating now puts them in a weaker position.

buy_more - from the same article:
'Tentatively, a final investment decision is targeted for next year, with first production about three years later. Chahin said the FLNG scheme is a multi-billion-dollar project, so Bowleven may decide to scale back it's interest or sell it entirely instead of funding its way through the development.

That might be the opportunity to realise some value for shareholders or find out shareholder appetite to play along the value chain'.

That last line is clearly a hint to NA/LUK that BVLN assets are not going on the cheap and are not in a hurry to sell. With low cash burn you play the waiting game for the value to out. Once FID is made and projects build commence the value of those assets and risks decrease the value of assets increases.
COC wont be on the phone begging for a deal thats for sure.

[buy_more] 24/5/2018 10:27

i guess coc has a clear strategy. they won‘t sit around and wait till someone calls them. looking forward to the coming next months.

[loglorry1] 24/5/2018 09:11

If I were CoC I'd entertain a bid which pays out X in cash plus a further cash sum dependent on how many extra bbls are added by appraisals.

It makes sense for both sides. It derisks what must be big exposure CoC now have and also allows the buyer to pay a bit less assuming the success case.

I doubt this will happen but it makes a bit of sense.

[buy_more] 24/5/2018 09:06

and: lukoil would not pay 250M for a few barrels only i guess..

[buy_more] 24/5/2018 09:05

i‘m quite sure coc is already talking to potential buyers but won‘t sell before results. why sell before?

[benjimun] 23/5/2018 17:16

If you are valuing blvn's share of resources at $2 per barrel or less, then I think thats too low? We know that the a buyer will carry out detail DCF analysis, factoring in recoverability rates etc and will take along terms view of oil/gas prices. They wont take the current $80 a barrell as a base I'm sure.

Malcy - yeah whatever.
A bidding war is unlikely, unless the chinese want a foothold to influence the LPP market in West Africa.

[cyan] 23/5/2018 16:52

Hi Benjimun.

My previous posts 'conservative' numbers were based on my previous number crunching; it involved previous transactions, the cash held , and the worth of payments to come per share. POO has improved dramatically so, yes, maybe I am being over conservative, or am I realistic.?

If there's a bidding war, who knows.

Been over a year since this malcy comment;



"My spies tell me that COC have a buyer lined up for Etinde and of course the Bomono deal with VOG is still on the table doing both of those deals would effectively finish the sad tale."

Ummm, I suppose the 'buyer' has decided to await the drill results now.

[warbaby43] 23/5/2018 15:49

1 TCF should suffice for the scale of FLNG project New Age have outlined, SNH require 500 bcf be set aside for Cameroonian energy/fertiliser projects, so a further TCF or even somewhere between 500bcf and 1 tcf, should be sufficient to get to a positive FID at which point the additional $25m from the farmout kicks in, so unless they start to spend at Jock Mafia rates they will then have cash of $100m+ to offer a prospective purchaser as well as the Etinde asset.

At current £/$ £1 per share equates to c $450m which I, at least, would find difficult to envisage should only one additional tcf be found by IM-6 and IM-7. An extra two tcf and it might be getting a little nearer but perhaps what we should also be hoping for is a series of interest rate rises by the US Fed to get sterling down below the $1.30 mark.

[benjimun] 23/5/2018 15:26

Cyan.
Quite conservative that cyan what is your rational for that estimate.

BLVN have 58mmboe Net to blvn of the existing share of discovered assets. At $4 a barrel assuming an exchange rate of $1.35 to £1 = approx 50p.
Add the 25p per share of the cash a further £25m payment at FID = 5p per share
Well thats 80p..
If we sell the 58mmboe at $2 a barrel which is what we farmed out for we still get 25p
and value of 55p per share.
Do COC strike you as the type of firm to offload our stake that low.

This is not including anything being found or major problems during the appraisals.
A conservative 1TF extra resources from appraisal adds 34mmboe to blvn
$4 = 30p per share
$2 = 15 per share.
Not including any extra condensate/dry gas and offset costs from previous exploration in Cameroon.

[jordaggy] 23/5/2018 15:15

Can anyone explain why the share price isn't going up in a straight line? all this doddering about gets on my nerves. 120p and I'm out! not a penny less.

[buy_more] 23/5/2018 15:05

log, as you say, it depends a lot of what revenue can be expected from etinde over the coming years. 1 pound would mean roughly 340M pounds. if billions can be extracted from etinde than 340M does not sound very much to me. capex, tax, risks etc. deducted of course. and then there is still the cash we have and even more to come... let the games begin