Bowleven Share Discussion Threads

[cyan] 23/5/2018 14:41

If the appraisals are really poor; I see us going for at least 50, so a fair premium still.
If VERY good up to 80p max , imo. Hard to see over 100p. This is about the safest oil play out there for returns in the pretty near future.

love to be proved wrong about 80p though!

[loglorry1] 23/5/2018 14:20

Well obviously a buyer has to be willing to pay over £1/share which means the appraisal wells have to prove up a lot more gas and condensate and a Lukoil or NA decide they want to buy out the remaining 25% that BLVN holds. Or at the very least the market expects them to.

I don't think it is really any more complicated than that.

Log

[buy_more] 23/5/2018 13:04

@ wshak, loglorry and others...

what in your opinion has to happen in order to get more then 1pound per share?

[3waysout] 22/5/2018 10:22

Spudded and heading to £1

300 barrels min @ $5 = $1.5B
BVLN 20% = $300m min
Cash ++ = $100m min

330 shares

Share Price $1.2 min between now and Dec 2018

[3waysout] 22/5/2018 09:55

Old BOD was a Scottish clique looking at pushing their own selfish agenda. None of them ever bought shares in the company, or had any interest in destroying the reckless extravagance or wastefulness in the use of capital. This new regime seem focused and our interest as PI are aligned with their good fortune. Etinde is a great asset in the right hands. Let's hope the partners and the host government agree on how to make the most of it.

[iamthedogman] 22/5/2018 09:51

RNS re spud commencing 21st May.........Here we go

[hot_topic] 22/5/2018 09:51

Spud announced :-)

[uggy100] 21/5/2018 17:53

Indeed they were & useless to boot. Let's not forget they hid the Bonomo results after paying a ridiculous amount of money for the drills.

[jordaggy] 21/5/2018 09:08

What a bunch of greedy swines the previous board were!!!

[warbaby43] 21/5/2018 08:21

A reminder of what COC "put on their tin"

[loglorry1] 17/5/2018 08:04

True but much lower risk with appraisal well when drilling a very similar geological formation to determine its extent.

[warbaby43] 17/5/2018 07:56

Precedent, ie fighting Commerzbank through to the finish, would suggest that COC will stay the course with no sale of either company or Etinde asset until at least after drilling and testing completion.

The risk, as always though, lies in the drilling, not just in the finding there what they hope/expect is there but in unanticipated equipment, geological or pressure problems.

[loglorry1] 16/5/2018 22:23

Keeping the cash within BLVN important to get a good exit of course. If no cash to pay share of any subsequent development then bargaining position is weaker as forced seller or back to the market to raise. That's why cash remaining in blvn I suppose.

[yasrub] 16/5/2018 21:12

Since COC basically took control I have taken the view that any deal would be structured that the remaining cash at BLVN would in reality be outside any deal with a third party and ultimately returned to shareholders. I basically see it as a real positive not only for having a large % of the company covered by the significant cash position but also any interest simply would be in the asset itself - Etinde. Trying to value I think is simply too difficult currently and if COC were to enter into a transaction before appraisals I suspect it would need allowance of appraisal results. My gut feeling is the appraisal drills will happen first with COC controlling the situation, I doubt New Age or Lukoil would welcome a new third party - so the value to them might not be based on some traditional metric even though that seems pretty difficult to fathom ! There is always risk but those that know the story and endured the 2-3 years before COC arrived will hopefully reap the benefits of the clear strategy now set.

[loglorry1] 16/5/2018 20:42

With the FID payment there is $108m of cash or about 25p/shr.

Cost recovery is worth something but hard to value that.

So as I said downside well protected with two carried appraisal wells to add material upside. What's not to like?

[benjimun] 16/5/2018 20:16

In addition there is FID payment of $25m and on Page 21 of the BLVN BoD literature sent to us while fighting the take over from COC.

MLHP-5 and MLHP-6 drilling

'Past exploration costs associated with blocks MLHP-5 and MLHP-6 form part of the cost pool retained by the joint venture for recovery against the potential developments on block MLHP-7'.

Does anyone have an idea of the cost associated with the drilling and typically if this type of thing has a value which would make up any part of a deal?

[loglorry1] 16/5/2018 18:16

@Benjimun I'm sorry I have no idea. I guess you need to look at similar recent transactions if you can find any. 75p to a £1 looks a lot more realistic on the appraisal success case which is probably 70% CoS given its appraisal wells.

It's very hard to say since FLNG is capex intensive and requires a good 1P number to risk large capex. Thus the bigger the reserves the bigger the economy of scale.

Obviously there are outcomes in between eg 1.5TCF plus willingness of potential buyers etc etc.

Even at this price it looks good risk return. Downside probably 30p. Upside £1 with say 60% chance.

I'm sure some bull will be along to quote Cove at me they always do.

Edit: obviously possible bid maybe at say 50p from other partners before appraisals or some sort of hybrid deal where a bit more is paid out on success in a bid.

To be honest there are a lot of moving parts but I still see upside from here especially given the stupid valuations put on real dross out there right now.

[benjimun] 16/5/2018 18:01

Log,
A further 2TCF(in addition to 1TCF already paid for)of gas would equate to a further 340m BOE, correct?
At $5 a barrel that is $1.7billion, BLVNs 20% is worth $340m /326m shares= $1.04/75p per share.

Add the condensate and existing cash and you can see why people would be looking
to see fair value at £1+.? assuming that my assumptions are correct.

If I recall at the time of the farm out, BLVN got $2 per BBOE.
In your experience what would be a fair BBOE price at this stage
of the project/post FID?

[loglorry1] 16/5/2018 15:39

That's gross revenue with no NPV discount, no capex, opex abandonment, risking and not taxed. Once reserves are proved up you could do a similar calc but not with $70 oil it would be more like $5 or similar and dito for gas.

Don't forget CoC bought a lot of shares close to cash backing so not much risk.

If appraisals go well here we'll see the share price rise a lot but I wouldn't pay too much attention to guff on LSE.

[buy_more] 16/5/2018 14:27

this was a question over on the lse site... maybe someone has an answer? :)

Today 13:24 Price: 38.65
Jillykins 15 posts
Selling Price

Some of the valuations for what we might sell for seem a little on the low side. I realise when we sold to Lukoil oil was top dollar but KH had to do a deal as we had no money left so was bargaining from a weak position. Could anyone correct me on the following maths as I know I've taken a few guesses. If gas is worth $5 per thousand cubic feet, then three trillion cubic feet is worth 15 billion dollars. Our 25% share should be worth $3.75 billion. If we find 3 x the oil, then 3 x 95 million is 285 million barrels at say $70 a barrel. That is say $20 billion and our share would be $5 billion. So $8.75 billion ÷ 326 million shares = $26.84 per share. Even if it took 50% to get out of ground, it is still $13.42 per share? I realise we will get nothing like that but surely we should get more that 90 odd pence? Please feel free to correct me. I realise this is probably hugely flawed. I also cannot believe COC would risk the amount of money they have put in to triple their investment.

[neilyb675] 15/5/2018 16:11

No resistance all the way back to 75p

[benjimun] 15/5/2018 14:45

Unrelated but David Clarkson has joined Sound energy.

hxxps://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/africa/171372/ex-bowleven-director-switches-to-sound-energy/

[jordaggy] 15/5/2018 14:15

Our luvs a good spud dus Iaa. Could be an exciting couple of months coming up! hopefully coc will keep us appraised of events...we need news flowing - like gas.