Borders & Southern Petro... Share Discussion Threads

[ride the wave] 15/4/2015 14:52

Thanks for the update 😄.

Brent should reach $65- $70 as broken out !

Keep em coming ....


ATB

[ride the wave] 15/4/2015 14:49

Cyan ,

Thanks mate , life is a gamble and I plan to retire in my villa . I know there is risk BUT without risk there are no rewards . Personally I think Bor has lot more upside than the others , especially as bor mkt cap is very low .

I hope I'm proved to be right in the end - genius or stupid fool , only time will tell . My afc will cover any position I have here anyway . I'm going to keep on stake building until I reach 1m shares .

I was in rkh from 30p - £3.30/£3.50 and I only had 100,000 shares (lol) . Buying bor now is like buying rkh when they were 6p IMHO .

Let's hope fogl and rkh do well , especially on Humpback . Saying that , I still think Bor will be part of the next campaign regardless .

GLA and DYOR


Ps where's my trade ? Why delay it ??

[cyan] 15/4/2015 14:33

Good afternoon RTW.
The good news is that Brent is now $60.40.

You may make an absolute fortune here RTW but one learns from past experience that too many eggs in one basket is risky.
I wish you all the best but respectfully suggest diversification may be safer.
Forgive me if you have or any possible losses in BOR will not affect you onerously.

Of all the Falklands Oil companies; I am in FOGL and RKH. RKH imo is the safer of the two.

Lets hope we all strike it rich.

[ride the wave] 15/4/2015 11:52

Another 25,000 at 5.65p

Thanks

[ride the wave] 14/4/2015 17:30

It's got nothing to do with sentiment , a strike at Humpback will de - risk our acreage and then a farm in partner should take notice .This is why Bor will re rate slightly on any good news .

3d won't make the share price go mad and neither will a strike in the north . It's got nothing to do with Bor because we are in the South .

Only a farm in partner will move this up sharply IMHO

[barvin] 14/4/2015 17:00

Judging on current investor sentiment, would success at Humpback really provide a massive boost to BOR?

I think a mixture of oil price increase, positive 3D data and some successful drills in NFB could push this back into 10p+ if they come together in a short period of time. Otherwise farmout is the only thing going to push this 10p-15p IMO in a day.

[ohisay] 14/4/2015 16:50

Put very simply - short term - for BOR this is a dice throw on Humpback.
Not quite as bad as Argos which is a dice throw on Rhea as they don't have the cash backing that BOR has .
If I was Noble I'd probably have done what they did - they are a big company with big shareholders and have decided that in this environment with limited capital to deploy the NFB is probably the place to be.
( All that of course in the absence of a elephant find at Humpback which they are very happy to describe as a possible game changer- "fish in a barrel" is the Noble quote - Humpback isn't a usual name its supposed to conjure up a big whale )
Equally for FOGL that holds true on a duster of course.So talk of a FOGL buyout of BOR is entirely dependent on that .
Which is why I think Malcy got it right for a change.
I'm here at an average of 9.5p but its a casino bet IMV .
On its own an oil price of just 70$-80$ won't get a SFB drilling campaign going in the next 2/3 years that's for sure.

[ride the wave] 14/4/2015 16:20

Darwin is commercial below the current oil price .

Falkland tax is very very low - much much cheaper than North Sea .

The bod hold 14% of the company .

Oil leg .

Sweet spot of South Basin .

2 extra reservoirs below Darwin .

Ultra light sweet crude (condensate) trades slightly below Brent .

Every 2 shares is worth 1 barrel of condensate .

[barvin] 14/4/2015 12:58

Can anyone clarify who owns the license areas in the South Falklands Basin and current status on what has been drilled/successful/duster/current status etc.

Thulla-
Canavon-
Undene-
Inflexible-
Cornwall-
Leipzig-
Darwin-
Stebbing-
Scharnhorst-
Nurnberg-

[barvin] 14/4/2015 12:45

Added my negatives too on a new thread

[cyan] 14/4/2015 12:39

Anything is possible. Any share deal with FOGL will be pretty mean.
However, the commitment to drill by autumn 2017 will still stand.

Realistically I think FOGL has a lot on their plates and would not want BOR.

The NFB is a clear winner and costs half as much as the SFB and , imo, FOGL will concentrate there.
I think the SFB's day is yet to come and maybe now too late for BOR .

Would the FI government feel generous and extend the BOR license?

If I was them , I would take control again to sell in the future, and profit nicely.

[barvin] 14/4/2015 12:29

Yep, these are all in my negative list. Coming soon.....

That is why I hope FOGL will buy BOR with shares, I really can see this happening in late 2015 or 2016. They will get a bit of cash and can then control a SFB campaign with better bargaining power for rigs etc.

If we get a oil price increase and a takeover offer from FOGL I would be happy to see 15p-20p. I think the hope of seeing this back in 20p-30p range is now long gone, even after farmouts, bids.

[cyan] 14/4/2015 12:19

Trouble is barvin, time is not on their side. 2017 is make or break, all or , potentially, nothing, and turn the lights out.

[barvin] 14/4/2015 11:51

Cyan,

This list is the situation now. I agree, they have made mistakes perhaps being greedy in the past. But I feel they would never do a sell out deal like ARG yesterday.

Just trying to spark a bit of real debate about the situation at BOR as opposed to the "tick up" "only 10,000 available at 5.9" than we have seen in the past. I am by no means a falklands or oil expert, this positive/negative lists have been drawn up myself to evaluate my own investment situation here. Hoping to refine them and learn a bit more detail on the prospects at BOR.

[cyan] 14/4/2015 11:34

Good morning barvin

"BOD determined not to sell out cheap"

It appears they turned down offers when POO was over $100

Be interesting to know what they were.
Sometimes holding out for 'a bit more' or being downright greedy ; can leave you in difficulties as BOR now realizes.

If oil is still bouncing around $55 in the autumn of 2016 BOR will be in real peril.

[barvin] 14/4/2015 11:06

Firstly, some positives:

Positives

Farmout deal can still be struck
3D data comign very soon on SFB potential
Potential FOGL takeover in late 2015/16
Still got bolt on slots available on rig available in current campaign
SFB campaign in 16/17 could happen now FOGL have delayed
Oil is at a low and could rise to 60-80 or higher
£10m GBP in cash with cash burn £2m GBP per year
BOD determined not to sell out cheap
Rig prices at all time low
Market cap of £25m is small
Falklands has low breakeven oil price
Economic large Darwin discovery

[ohisay] 14/4/2015 04:40

Malcy has it dead right (for a change).

[ride the wave] 13/4/2015 23:32

I hope so as well mate .

After reading today's rns at fogl and then re reading bor last rns , I would be very surprised if we are not part of the next campaign . Fogl is still committed to the South and we will find out if there gunna drill Scharnhorst and or Starfish within a short time frame (I would imagine) . Humpback will be drilled next and that's in the South , a good result there will certainly increase our chances . Our CEO has stated that rig costs have fallen by 40% , and Fogl will re-negotiate the rig costs for the next campaign (as stated in their rns today) .

I know it seems like the bod are lagging behind but I honestly think they are playing a blinder . This story is far from over especially as the price of oil will go back up in q3 . The Saudis have stated that they want oil prices higher . Once oil breaks $54 we should see a nice bounce to around $65 IMHO .

GLA

[seangwhite] 13/4/2015 22:54

RTWHope your optimism is matched by the BOD's success in securing a well funded farminee. The current valuation for the BOR reserves of about $0.15 per barrel looks to be a tad low but as the days go by it may seem to be correct.VGLTA

[ride the wave] 13/4/2015 20:21

Flasher why bother red ticking all my posts ? .