Blue Prism Share Discussion Threads

[danvandan] 03/9/2021 14:07

This relatively old news being reported by thebusinessdesk:


...In June this year, Blue Prism, which is valued at around £1.6bn, revealed it had seen a 24% jump in half year revenues.

Group revenues for the six months to the end of April climbed from £66.6m to £80.4m, and the group reported bookings of £98m, growing 35% compared with the same period in the prior year.

Jason Kingdon said: “Whilst remaining disciplined on spending and re-confirming our aim to be cash break-even by the end of the full financial period, we have significantly invested in R&D, enabling a record number of product releases to enhance scale and usability of the core product. [Article ends]


I thought everyone loved a bargain. Evidently not.

[danvandan] 03/9/2021 13:53

I'm a little surprised this isn't heading up further right now. The ceo/chairman has let the market know that the business is 'in play' and a large shareholder (3%) has signalled a price range in the £16-£17 area, and the firm has commissioned an agent to find more buyers. Meanwhile, it's allegedly third in its field of digital automation below two peers on massive p/e ratios, but is itself lurking in the shadows on a tiny earnings multiple. At least Kingdon and his 'team' have the weekend to try and re-light the blue-touchpaper, but on today's price action, maybe Systematica is right to not get into a panic over its £10m short. Only £3m traded so far today, so it looks to me like the shorters are gritting their teeth and hoping for the excitement to subside, unless they managed to get out yesterday - we will probably know this afternoon when the FCA spreadsheet is out and shorttracker updates.

All in all, I've seen more excitement over a dog sh1tting in the street than this tech-stock with two suitors in a 'bidding war'. A couple of hours to go, but assuming that today continues as an algo-driven, stop-hunting non-event, let's see what Monday brings.

[hazl] 03/9/2021 09:45

Danvandan thank you for that more relevant than mine.

[hazl] 03/9/2021 09:43

Thanks to Simon.

This talks about the fact that the UK is undervalued,rather than PRSM itself.

[danvandan] 03/9/2021 08:25

More FT comment on Blue Prism. The last paragraph is the most interesting part.



Blue Prism: on reflection
It’s never easy to make a splash as a sellside analyst with a new employer. One way is to correctly predict a billion-pound takeover approach with your first note.

Harvey Robinson joined Panmure Gordon in July. His debut research published in the same month was titled, “Will Blue Prism be bid for? And by whom?” A follow-up at the start of August fleshed out the argument, the gist of which was that an under-appreciated market share made the Aim-quoted software maker easy prey for numerous potential acquirers.

Direct hit: Blue Prism said this week it had been approached by US private equity groups TPG Capital and Vista Equity Partners. By Thursday the Aim-quoted stock jumped 45 per cent to hit a market value of £1.2bn.

Robinson is well known to veterans of the dotcom bubble, having led the technology hardware team at ABN Amro between 1998 and its takeover by Royal Bank of Scotland in 2007. Jobs at Collins Stewart and research group QMG Insight followed, as well as a brief stint investing client money at his now defunct equity hedge fund Ki Capital Management.

Though new to Panmure, Robinson’s professional interest in Blue Prism began in 2017 while at Whitman Howard, which was second after house broker Investec to start coverage. His most recent list of potential predators for the business includes Thoma Bravo and Summit Partners, which specialise in tech buyouts, as well as highly rated direct rivals UiPath and Automation Anywhere. Sector bellwethers Microsoft, SAP, Appian, IBM and Salesforce also receive a mention.

So should investors expect a bid battle? Potentially.

Blue Prism also revealed this week that it had brought in Frank Quattrone’s Qatalyst Partners as financial adviser. The Silicon Valley boutique has a longstanding reputation for shopping tech companies to the highest bidder, most memorably for UK investors when it advised Autonomy on its ill-fated 2011 sale to HP for $11bn.

[hazl] 02/9/2021 19:55

Coast Capital believes Blue Prism is currently undervalued and it would be a mistake to agree to a takeover at the share price.

“As you are well aware, the Enterprise Value of Blue Prism PLC is currently valued at approximately three times forward revenues - an 80% to 90% discount to the company’s peers including UiPath, Appian, WorkFusion, Automation Anywhere, etc.,” the letter from Coast Capital said.

“Were a buyer to pay a premium of 100%, the share price would still be materially lower than its intrinsic value, and well below where the shares were trading as recently as January 2021.”

[sogoesit] 02/9/2021 17:21

Cheers Blah blah (great moniker ;-)!)...

Yes, indeed. I'm a bit in the dark tbh. I lived through the £25+ peak and note the declining "peaks" since then.
£15 would be a satisfactory return for me overall although my investment term expectations have now been cut short.

I don't plan on waiting for a priced bid so will see how my own gut reacts to the market treatment in the next week or so. Maybe I'm being impatient but I now want an exit here.

[blah blah] 02/9/2021 12:03

Sogoesit, I think that is a fair short-term shout in the absence of an actual bid. The risk is that nothing comes through and it falls back to £8-£9. On balance though my gut tells me there will be a bid and it will be north of £15 but less than £20.

[sogoesit] 02/9/2021 11:59

I am hoping for north of £14.
I'm a seller at £14/£15.

[hazl] 02/9/2021 10:27

I think it's the climate of the London stock exchange rather than the investors themselves Devonlad but I agree with the sentiment of your post.

[yasx] 02/9/2021 10:15

I got in on average around £9 - have taken some off the table with the rest as free carry.

No certainty of a bid, but £15 would be a jolly good return indeed.

[devonlad] 02/9/2021 10:15

Troken, you may well get more, I hope so anyway! There is certainly a lot of interest and I hte the fact that all UK high tech companies get sold to the Americans for a song. UK investors really don't get growth tech. That is just my opinion, it could well go a lot higher if there is a bidding war.

[hazl] 02/9/2021 10:13

Dan as was your FT piece.


8-)

[troken] 02/9/2021 10:00

Well Devonlad, as I bought in at £15.30, I was hoping for a bit more than that!

[devonlad] 02/9/2021 09:36

DVD, I think that the market thinks there are fair odds now that there will be other suitors appear at the table. My guess is that it will eventually go for £20 but the initial bid will be around the £16/£17 mark. Nai, wtfdik!

[danvandan] 02/9/2021 09:32

What do people think is a fair price for Blue Prism? I'm guessing it'll be significantly more than £12.

If Kingdon thought that a US listing would value the business at 2-5 times more, £17 (at the very bottom of that range) is a good baseline?

[danvandan] 02/9/2021 09:29

Another hedge fund (40 North Latitude) has declared an interest (via an equity swap) of 4% made on Tuesday. See the RNS last night at 17.50.

[mcmather] 02/9/2021 07:34

Not sure if this is (already) mentioned in the FT article above - don't have access to the same:

"As per UK law, the private equity firms now have until 28 September to confirm and make an offer for the Blue Prism Group."

[danvandan] 01/9/2021 20:11

Interesting assessment by the FT today.

London’s loss will be Blue Prism’s gain as buyout funds circle
Potential private equity takeover is UK software pioneer’s best chance to compete with better funded rivals

[danvandan] 01/9/2021 18:53

thanks for that hazl. Interesting reading.

[hazl] 01/9/2021 18:40

Agree with that blah blah.
It seems to me there are quite a few US investors on Twitter looking at UK companies because they have read we are undervalued.




IMO

[hazl] 01/9/2021 18:38

Blue Prism wasn't expected to be in profit that soon; it was aiming for high growth.
It was the first of it's kind and the rest followed and played catch up.

Blue Prism was the name in the industry.

Very refreshing to have a British,very innovative company, taking the lead and being so creative.

[stallone10] 01/9/2021 18:38

uipath worth 33 billion