Blue Prism Share Discussion Threads

[blah blah] 01/9/2021 18:31

The UK is obsessed with profits whereas in the US if you are growing recurring revenue they would rather you invest to keep the growth coming and worry about profits later; and the US will value you highly for it. Different approaches from the UK and US markets and that is why many companies in high growth sectors prefer a NASDAQ listing. Then the UK complains we don't have enough tech leaders!

[danvandan] 01/9/2021 18:23

hazl, am not confused at all; merely responding to the facts as they emerge. Shorttracker shows that JPMorgan closed out their entire short position yesterday, as I suspected. Systematica seem to have been a little slower to react, but within the £30m+ traded today, I feel sure that they will have exited their short too. Despite this heavy trading the price is only up fractionally today.

Obviously the chairman/ceo has used the opportunist approach by the private equity firms to try to support the shareprice and either push the business out of their reach or increase the value of the deal. The p/equity response will be telling here. If there's a quick walk-away, it will suggest opportunism on the part of all concerned. Goldmans appear to be Vista's bankers and if the vampire squid is involved, investors look-out!!

Kingdon seems to be quite the self-publicist, and the board appears to be weak and non-committal on the business (minimal personal shareholdings) hence perhaps the p/equity approach. Debt doesn't appear to be an issue - but why is this business not cash generative and not producing a profit? Another question I have is; how many other businesses provide digital bots for business? I've got a feeling that there may be many competitors. As far as business in general goes, are these not the bots they are looking for?

[sogoesit] 01/9/2021 13:59

@hazl ... ;-)))
Thank you, you are very kind.

Ya never know in life, hazl. As Nassim Taleb says... "optionality has value" Haha ;-)
Also... luck can run out as quickly as it turned up!

[hazl] 01/9/2021 13:32

I sincerely wish I had kept hold of KNOS which I see you are still in .

Well done!




Surely you don't need 2 villas?

[hazl] 01/9/2021 13:28

Oh Sogoesit I would have loved you to have had your villa out of it!

Thanks for your company along the way though.

[sogoesit] 01/9/2021 12:39

Hi hazl! How're you doing?

Finally, I can bin my dream of a villa, sell this share out and buy a garden shed ;-))!
Who wudda thunk it that the Strategic Director they employed was going to sell the company??

Thank "expletive" for that!

[hazl] 01/9/2021 12:16

Unlike you who seem confused about your stance.

[danvandan] 01/9/2021 11:30

Also, I don't like that holdings notice from Goldman Sachs for Vista's interests in PRSM. Too many longs and shorts on CFDs - sophisticated financial jiggery pokery instead of straight-forward stake-building in the business. Maybe there's a reason for it, but it's beginning to smell a bit off to me.

[danvandan] 01/9/2021 11:27

Kingdon is going to need another bidder to step fwd if the share price is going anywhere near historic levels. I'm wondering if it's just his frustration with the failling share price that's causing the 'buy-out' notice. Can't say that I saw any 'speculation' to be answered beforehand, but if anyone knows any different, please post news links.

[danvandan] 01/9/2021 11:22

The obvious vulnerability here is if TPG or Vista come out with their own notice to say that they are no longer in discussion with Blue Prism. Shareprice is up a third from the 840p level currently. Could easily come crashing down again.

Other issues are that the leadership is one serial entrepreneur heavily invested and the rest of the board with almost no investment. They are the people closest to the action and if they believed in the business, the FD wouldn't have a holding of a mere £5k in shares - please check my figures and let me know if this is wrong, but it looks like the FD has been selling this year. The non-exec Chris Betterham is only slightly more committed with £26k as far as I can see.

Just trying to understand the lack of fizz here this morning, given the price history. Seems like the market is not very convinced by the buy-out story.

[mcmather] 01/9/2021 11:10

BB, Uipath obviously trade on many multiples of PRSM. Would PRSM be faring better – 2 to 5 times better?? – if they were also trading on Nasdaq?
MXCT went up 20%-25% on their Nasdaq listing.
But more pertinent is probably HCM which went up nearly 80% on their HK listing where Chinese / medical companies are ‘better’ appreciated.
And here, we have parties interested in buying.
ps, the original post was very much "speculation"!!

[the dark horse] 01/9/2021 10:41

I am surprised it hasn’t risen further this AM but perhaps when the US wakes up and I have therefore increased my holding. I am still averaging under £10 which to me is win win as it is a SIPP holding that I am happy to keep if the bid fails. Short term £15-20 with a bid, long term £30+ cant be bad :) '

[blah blah] 01/9/2021 10:21

If he was right, there would be US buyers queuing up to invest in PRSM in the UK. No way that kind of arbitrage could exist. Ask 4D shareholders - they were convinced a US listing would get the price up 4-5x and its actually gone down 30% since it listed in the US a few months ago!

[mcmather] 01/9/2021 09:50

Just a bit of context Blah blah. At £16.50 (Feb 2021) he felt “company could be worth two-to-five times more if it was listed in the US”. The end of H1 – not great but not terrible – was only 2-3 months at that time.

[hazl] 01/9/2021 09:35

It's certainly more interesting than it's been for ages and has a lot of visibility now.



OT
Have recently got some SBDS SilverBullet too, which with 4D approach might be a new winner.

IMO

[danvandan] 01/9/2021 09:31

First order of business though is a big short squeeze. Possibly £20m to be closed out today.

[danvandan] 01/9/2021 09:28

The fundamentals seem to be going in the right direction for the business. Rising income and rising net asset value. Tech businesses frequently take time to generate profit, but it doesn't seem far off here. The fact the private equity are looking to take it on suggests strong potential. Also, I saw someone mention a dual listing on the US market. It's a growing business in a good sector with plenty of options. I don't see a cheap bid succeeding here, but maybe a big one that can satisfy Kingdon.

[blah blah] 01/9/2021 09:21

Why pick six months ago? Feels a bit random. A lot can happen in the world and to a company in six months - the recent trading update wasn't as good as the market wanted so any bidder will factor that in.

It's very rare to see a premium of more than 100% to the price traded in the market prior to a bid so I can't see it, but would be happy to be proved wrong. 40-50% is much more common but I think Prism can get more as the shorting I think did have an impact on the price in the market.

The risk of a deal not going through in my opinion would be a disconnect between what the management think it is worth and what the PE buyers are prepared to pay.

[mcmather] 01/9/2021 09:17

Aye Blah blah; just speculation / crystal ball stuff. Agree though it is a buy at these levels – Kingdon felt it was undervalued at around £16.50 in Feb 2021;

[danvandan] 01/9/2021 09:10

PRSM was £17+ just six months ago. Anyone see any reason why that price shouldn't be gained pretty quick now?