Blackbird Takeover Rumours (BIRD)

"Google and Wiz scrap $23bn takeover. " Anyway, to be honest I personally think Google are best keeping security development in house. Maybe that money could flow our way. That's £17.84b or around £46 per BIRD share 😊😊 hTTps://www.pressreader.com/uk/evening-standard-west-end-final/20240723/282033332441819 Let's hope we don't walk away from such a deal 🤣🤣

In the event of a takeover before this time next year there would have to be a shareholder vote. What would the minimum bid price have to be for you vote Yes?

Sure, lack of evidence isn't proof. The market is ginormous. The majors buy technology. A takeover marries technology and existing customers. It all make sense. But a director buying shares suggests there is nothing remotely serious ongoing. It's a work in progress and all to play for.

Absolutely, I've been conflicted about the two possible routes, early sale or growth, for some time. The company has outlined its plans for Product Led Growth and whilst a good case can be made for the logic of an early takeover I seen no real evidence it is happening. But the team have experience of growing SaaS, they've told us that is what they are doing, so it's reasonable to assume that is indeed what they are doing until we are told otherwise.

There’s no takeover going on. There never has been. And yes, SW would absolutely be involved.

I simply can't entertain the idea that Stephen White - the company CFO - wouldn't be involved in a takeover approach.

I purchased a very small amount (20,000 shares) today. It came up as unknown - but I think that's just because it's close to the mid-point of bid/ask. Hopefully we will start seeing upgrades to the Elevate platform and I'm glad the directors have purchased - even if a small amount. Takeover isn't happening right now. Director buys and the messages from the AGM suggest that.

Chart looks set to pop. Any catalysts expected? (takeover, contract win, new products, good results?)

The Figma experience highlights the problems of leaving any takeover too late, acquiring a business with customers is more problematic than buying technology / IP. I’m sure IM/SS has thought this through. Full value will only be realised if we go it alone, but that will take time. Alternatively an early take out will require some robust negotiations to maximise returns. I’ve been here before with other moonshots which have subsequently crashed and burned, so I’m not counting my chickens just yet, but that doesn’t stop me speculating.

johnveals - I think something has changed. When elevate was released, we saw an incomplete product. We were disappointed, but hoped that it was going to be extremely iterative, with frequent updates. I'm fairly sure they discussed a payment gateway being in place by end of Q1. However, we've seen that the speed of development is slow, and we are not near a saleable product. Plug-ins aren't even a feature - let alone a functioning app store. We raised £1m for marketing the product, and there has been next to no marketing, suggesting the raise was again for keeping the lights on. We haven't been given an updated roadmap, and I think they owe that to us. Maybe Nick is right with his theory, but I'm firmly in the camp that you can't keep a takeover completely secret, and there would be excitement and evidence in the share price.

cabi1 "Trust me, if there was any sniff of takeover interest it would leak and we wouldn’t be down here at 4p." Sorry I can't trust you 😔 would you sacrifice your career and future prospects and legal action by breaking an NDA? I can't see any benefits in breaking an NDA and it's very risky as the leak source can easily be discovered, so why would anyone do it?

G2. Same. Now that’s realistic. All this £6 nonsense when we can’t even get back to 6p. Trust me, if there was any sniff of takeover interest it would leak and we wouldn’t be down here at 4p. There is no interest and unfortunately we are going it alone. Let’s pray they can do it. It’s not going to be easy, there’s just so much competition. It’s only Sumit that gives me any hope.

And if our team are working under the umbrella and structure of the partner it would allow for critical knowledge transfer to the partners technical teams. It all makes sense. Time will tell... But hopefully weeks, not years! This would also explain the shrinkage of non technical staff at Blackbird, particularly if our team move under the umbrella of the partner and their facilities. The only risk for a partner would be if we had a takeover approach during the partnership, but I see no reason why any Blackbird share holders would go for it, if we are already in safe hands. But an approach would certainly help underpin the SP.. Personally I really do need this to happen soon, ideally by mid July 🤞🤞🤞

salmon9 "or will this be done in arrangement with a larger company with a much larger existing market presence?? " I'm starting to think this is the more likely scenario now. An editor for one of the giants, stamped with 'powered by Blackbird' on it and a percentage of the income stream from each user coming our way, to help with maintenance and continued development, with maybe a takeover at a later date if all goes well. I see this as the safest route for the partner and probably the best route for share holders, SP will rocket on news of partner, then continue to rise as user base increases and finally the big uptick if partnership works and an offer is made for us after technology has been well tested and proven. It would make sense for this to happen in connection with the summer games, particularly with Blackbird's involvement in the games, that will help convince partner shareholders that we are a good bet.

Bentley was a waste of space anyway, so it’s a result he’s off the payroll. Are they gearing up for a takeover?

" a partnership or takeover RNS is what I'm expecting at some point in time." Partnership with AVID maybe within Enterprise ? ... For me I see them either going Private (private investors then investing to scale) or having to put themselves up for sale and then seeing who comes out of the woodwork to take a look I am not overly convinced that there will be a takeover offer at this stage/moment ( which would initially be rejected,no doubt for being silly money ) and then drawing out others through that route certainly interesting to see what happens as the cash level lowers ...

chriscallen I'm certainly not expecting a revenue RNS, a partnership or takeover RNS is what I'm expecting at some point in time. Knowing my luck, I'm probably years out again, but I do feel the climate is right in this sector for such an RNS, and all the weird goings on suggest this may be the case. Imoh, dyor

I know many are concerned that with the share price being so low, and the historical Blackbird trading figures showing consistent annual trading losses, then it would be out of the question for a takeover company to offer say £3 per share to acquire Blackbird or possibly just elevate.io. Putting it logically and simply, it seems to me the way this could happen is for the acquiring company to make it clear that it is the elevate IP that they are valuing and proposing to buy, and at this very early stage elevate has absolutely no trading history. The offer would then simply be based on elevate's potential to make profits for the acquirer. This seems perfectly reasonable to me. I know some people already realise this but some others don't. IMHO

Nothing from Ian or Sumit since webinar htTps://www.linkedin.com/posts/sumitrai23_videoeditor-contentcreation-videoeditingsoftware-activity-7186900132557148160-KzJR Development of elevate.io frozen at the user side. MV and social media person departed. Dawn Aire gone. SS tweeting about covid. IM not addressing the shareprice collapse. No updates from him. WTAF? At a guess I'd say everyhting has failed and they're pinning their hopes on a takeover but it's not tangible enough to keep Mo Valens and Dawn Aire involved. We're likely on the cusp of nothing. Again. I hope I'm wrong.

jbravo2 Maybe they don't want investors to hold any shares. I mean if a large takeover is on the cards, then surely the less shareholders the better. Shake everyone out then strike.

m5 I take your point and I have been in a few takeover situations and every one of them got bashed pre announcement and only started to rise days before. Also if you were an insider wouldn't you want a low share price rather than a high one? Other thoughts we are building an editing platform for the creator market we are not building it for investors as such. Creators / customers will determine the success of the platform.

Hyper The AIM market in general is finished, there is some talk Nasdaq will takeover it.

Likewise, I don't think it will be taken private. I suppose if someone is interested in the Company and a provisional agreement has been struck then that would make BIRD's marketing team literally redundant so that is a valid tick in the takeover theory column. A cross would be that IM would not have been able to participate in the £1m raise if he was involved in behind the scenes talks with an acquirer or had any other inside information that is being withheld from the market. That would include any approach or any other material information that he is (for whatever reason) unable to divulge to the market and has led to a situation where marketing is cast aside. Even if their strategy is to prepare a product and then present it for sale without any current behind the scenes interest it would amount to a material change of strategy and would have to be announced to the market.

Agree John - the biggest issue with Nick's theory is that nothing has been announced. Or leaked.. if we really were in takeover territory, and all the professional advisors on both sides were aware of a potential deal, we simply would see something in the share price. At £5, that's a 100X return. One could tell an old school friend - just £10k is a life changing investment. Although I've discussed before why I don't think a sale for many multiples of the share price would happen. I wonder if they plan to take it private.

Surely it is natural for a company to appoint as many NEDs as they can if the end game is near. I'm sure any potential purchaser of the company would expect this. Who owns stock makes little difference to any potential buyer, all the buyer wants is that they agree to the takeover.

Regarding the latest fundraising, I just listened again to the explanation given by IM on Investor Meets Company, He said a few things, starting with the fact that some high net worth individuals approached Blackbird expressing a wish to invest directly in the company. I don't understand this. They could have bought shares on the open market like the rest of us. Schroders have been willing persistent sellers for ages and so this could easily been achieved. From Blackbird's perspective, the fundraising done the way it was done, provided additional cash, because it was done this way. It seems either Blackbird realised that to have extra cash may be beneficial given the uncertainties of the forward journey, or maybe they wanted a seperate fund available to pay for legal expenses in dealing with a takeover bid which may or may not reach an advantageous ending.

Salmon good post 15989 Regarding the 6p (25m m/cap valuation) I think the Company needs to advise the investment community when they intend to start monetising the product even if it is an approximate timescale. I understand Sumit's point that they can't add premium features until they have been tested thoroughly, but the Company hasn't yet given a vague time when the paid option kicks in. It does need to happen sooner than later to ensure the cash lasts. Still, they have a decent runway and there are a few positive scenarios that could happen before then including:- a takeover (several potential candidates for that), Avid opting to license Blackbird ME technology for their Cloud issues and an upturn in small-cap sentiment.

NickB- “yes Blackbird in reality is a specialist investment not for most of the public.â€￾ Not sure that’s true or relevant tbh. My best investment by a distance in recent years has been in Rolls Royce, made almost a 5x return but I know diddly squat about jet engines or modular nuclear reactors. I understand the very basic fundamentals of video editing and codecs, a little more about SaaS / cloud from what I do, and taking start ups to IPO or takeover purely from working in companies in that scenario. I have been hugely enthusiastic about BIRD as well as fatalistic but that’s mostly just from reading comments on here. For a stock which really doesn’t have a lot of volume in sales or dynamic shift in price, it’s actually one of the shares I’m most intrigued by and invested in (thanks to RR profits). Keep posting on here, your input is always appreciated.

The fund raise a few months ago suggests to me that there isn’t a company waiting in the wings to takeover. Not conclusive evidence though Nick’s logic is very valid but my guess is that it doesn’t happen

clocktower The share price is meaningless it does not reflect the value of the IP. That will only be reflected here in the UK AIM market when an offer for the company comes in. One minute we could be 6p, the next 600p. In fact what does the SP tell us at any point in time other than the popularity of the stock? In the US markets investors seem to appreciate IP and so its value shows more in the SP. It's the same with chartists they can predict the popularity of the share but can't predict a takeover event unless there are leaks before official news release.

Hairflick, all great while it’s free, and it sounds as though the basics will be free constantly, so how many will upgrade and pay for the premium model? Everyone loves free, and if they could get revenue on the side in some way, then it would be far more attractive. My current view is that bar a takeover, which is very possible, the road will be long and hard, and the sp will go nowhere.

Do we think that this technically completely rules out any takeover talks, also?

hTTps://seekingalpha.com/news/4088351-vimeo-quickly-gains-amid-takeover-speculation

From Wikipedia â€￾In September 2023, Getty Images announced that it was partnering with Nvidia to launch Generative AI by Getty Images, a new tool that lets people create images using Getty's library of licensed photos. Getty will use Nvidia's Edify model, which is available on Nvidia's generative AI model" Our recent collaboration could be the video version for Nvidia Nvidia architecture is probably very geared up towards ARM, although it was not permitted to takeover for competition reasons. All very interesting and imho just highlights how ridiculous the market cap is for Blackbird. Just my thoughts, DYOR.

Good morning all. I was just thinking about the costs for a USA company taking over a UK company. Surely one of the biggest ones is the exchange rate. Currently the US$ is relatively strong compared to GB£. This could change quite rapidly over next few weeks with apparently some dire economic data on the horizon, well that's according to bitcoin fanatics. Is the exchange rate considered in takeover transactions?

Cabi IM and SS would be paid more than the other shareholders in any takeover, so IM would always be covered .. They would get sale share price + extra Normal procedure

Nick2412 Thank you for the excellent post. I remember reading the article that you have pointed to, and how good it felt to see Blackbird as a possible future $1 billion takeover target! Very interesting times are ahead!

NickB Thank you for such a clear logical assessment of what the possibilities may be going forward. For a hugely wealthy company already involved in video editing, keen to keep on adding significant growth, the opportunity to secure elevate's advanced technology would surely be very tempting. Given the big company's resources, and the fact that their existing tech in video editing is very soon going to look old tech, the downside risk of buying elevate would seem to be very low indeed, and the upside potential would be considerable. Recent attempted takeover experience should persuade them of the benefits of making an early move to reduce the authorities' concerns about competition considerations.

You guys probably won’t get this but Big news in the world of cameras A disruptor has just been acquired by old school. Brings cinema level quality to creator level? RedShark news has it. ‘Nikon's takeover of RED wasn't on our 2024 bingo card! The announcement today that Nikon is taking over 100% of RED.com LLC sent shockwaves through the industry. It could send shockwaves through camera development as well. Short of Nikon taking over Panavision or Sony, the announcement that it was taking over RED Cinema LLC will possibly turn out to be the most earth shattering and totally unexpected news of 2024. The news also throws up a whole raft of questions as to where this might take the camera market.’

Yep total puff piece. Makes me wonder if he’s putting himself in the shop window. If there’s a takeover, I can’t see him being needed. If elevate takes off - is it his area? He wasn’t employed to lead a d2c business. Obviously he’s heavily invested, so I’m not doubting his commitment.

I'd be delighted with an early takeover but BIRD will be in a stronger position to negotiate a higher price once they get traction. At some stage, the player will be integrated and BIRD will sell/offer data feedback to creators just as Google do for website creators. BIRD the Google analytics equivalent of video? Probably not, but it will 'steer' (to use Steven Streater's word) subscribers to elevate and help monetisation for both the creator and BIRD.

Thanks pat-cash, I totally agree with your thoughts rather than NickB's doom and gloom outlook if BIRD isn't taken over for 2 trillion within the next 12 weeks. That seems an extreme mindset as there is a highly lucrative middle ground. I suspect Mo Valens and Sumit Rai might just have a tad more experience and knowledge about effective strategy. They built up 1m users with a vastly inferior offering. As you say pat, partnerships are a low-cost way of getting early traction and profitability. A smaller profit from each payer from a much larger number of subscribers that are accumulated much more quickly with a strategy that preserves cash sounds fine to me. The approach doesn't exclude the possibility of a partnership with one of the very large players either. Neither does it exclude the prospect of a takeover which I suspect will happen this year.

Nick, that's why they will be going down the route of partnerships as confirmed by either Mo Valens or Sumit Rai when asked the question. I understand it was a one-word answer but an emphatic 'yes' nonetheless. The stated objective is to gain traction in the market with existing cash and if a takeover comes it comes, if not, a product with market traction and the best technology equates to a substantially higher share price - takeover or no takeover. I do agree with you that there will be a takeover but my perspective is that it's not likely to be imminent as in the next couple of months. Anyway, we have covered all that ad nauseam.

I don't really get the view that if Adobe doesn't buy then Blackbird is restricted and destined to embark on a long-term Canva-style route. As mentioned:- "5) If Adobe doesn't buy elevate/Blackbird, does that mean that a takeover will never happen? Far from it. It probably increases the prospects of a takeover. If Adobe creates a competitive product then the likes of Google, Microsoft, Canva and other Adobe competitors are going to need something immediately that will compete. Not all will have embarked on finding a solution. Also, the Blackbird tach and patents make it unlikely they will produce anything as good anytime soon."

Nothing stupid about your theory Nick. There's a lot of logic and sense to it and with all the cutting-edge, patented competitive advantages 'the package' will have, then I believe it will happen. The caveat is the share price is screaming 'not just yet' and the share price usually is a foreteller. Maybe it's a unique and different scenario from any other takeover in the history of AIM this time. Unlikely at this stage but you never know.

Maybe her attendance will be related to fund raising and setting out the plan for that over the next 12 months. I think we were told by Blackbird management that that may be planned for the autumn. Maybe it will be to explain how another issue will be dealt with eg a takeover offer that could feasible be announced a day or two before the meeting. Maybe it will be to explain changes in holdings by particular institutional investors. Maybe there is some other reason.............. Maybe they didn't intend to announce her attendance at this stage!

Scroll back to my posts, I am 90% sure they want to take BIRD private, or as Nick says there is a takeover in the wings. What ever is going on it will still be 30 bagger regardless. No advice [-) ssb

Cabi1, surely you can't possibly rule out a takeover at an early stage. I would suggest there is no evidence which rules that out. Please prove beyond doubt that I am wrong.

Maybe Figma buys elevate.io with the $1 billion it received from Adobe in the failed takeover, to compete with Adobe in the video space.

ClipChamp was to takeover from windows moviemaker elevate wasn’t available. Apple has its own basic video editor and a more serious one so Microsoft needed something. Does Microsoft want to elevate its video editing capabilities? Big picture (imho) The destination for all these creator video editing solutions is hyper scale level video editing in a browser (no software) Visually Draw a diagram of a 🎯 and lines away and put different companies names to each line and measure their distance from the bulls eye and the spread of the line to show any potential misses. Then do Blackbird elevate to me is very close🎯 to hitting Adobe is sweating Canva is enthusiastic Microsoft / Amazon is we don’t care we will just charge for infrastructure YouTube, TikTok and X want the content

I appreciate that Clipchamp is very much a low-level bog-standard video editing app, but it would still be interesting to know how much MS paid for it IMO. If they paid $50m say, then it put down a marker for how much the massively superior Elevate could be worth for the early-stage pre-rampup takeover scenario which many on this board think is feasible.

NickB I also accept the possibility of a takeover in the near term, before elevate.io is launched. I wouldn't expect it would help the vital focus on the testing work to announce anything about a takeover in the middle of that process. To do so may demotivate an unpredictable percentage of those involved in testing. It is one thing to feel motivated to help a small disruptive high quality tech company like Blackbird to develop a new innovative exciting product. It would probably be a less enticing prospect to help a big tech company gain even more market share! So, the best time to make an announcement would be shortly prior to launch. If it isn't then, it could be anytime after that. I do wonder whether the small sales team at Blackbird may be a pointer to what may be going on.