Bidstack Share Discussion Threads

[magli] 07/8/2019 12:36

Personally would rather SFor make s not for us. Single share exchange would be good. James and Martin at the helm would be magic !

[moneygenxyz] 07/8/2019 11:36

Downloaded Soccer Manager earlier.

No adverts running except the placeholder ad.

Looked at latest FM19 gameplay through YouTube and again, looked like stock adverts that FM have had forever (Prostate cancer, war child, EFL, ladbrooks as EFL sponsor).

Fill rate is not looking high based on that assessment

[tickboo] 07/8/2019 11:28

Given when the event is news will surely land beforehand.I briefly looked in here a couple of days ago and someone mentioned WPP were doing something. Can they replicate what BIDS has and if so won't other giants come into this space? The potential is massive so surely bid boys will be making moves?

[magli] 07/8/2019 10:55

Haha I hope not based on my viewing habits !

[girdz] 07/8/2019 10:27

Super g isn't even invested in BIDS so don't know why everyone is entertaining it. Posts everyday saying revenues won't be met blah blah blah. Those that are invested in BIDS are more concerned about the future than the past. A lot has changed since that peterhouse forecast. Note that was from sept 18

[tickboo] 07/8/2019 10:26

Given when the even is news will surely land beforehand.I briefly looked in here a couple of days ago and someone mentioned WPP we're doing something. Can they replicate what BIDS has so will other giants come into this space?

[mcfly79] 07/8/2019 10:13

The investor event is being scheduled for the third week in September. The event is to demonstrate their progress and show the technology, such as the Adconsole, in action.I'm hoping for material news on a number of fronts ahead of this event which will point to a ramp up in revenue in Q4. If this is the case the H1 figures will be largely irrelevant.

[mwainw1973] 07/8/2019 10:13

Cheers, I am getting the feeling news will be times with results, spoon full of sugar and all that,,

[moneygenxyz] 07/8/2019 10:05

Can I just say - Niggle is not allowed to win the 16th of Aug guessing game Hazl!!

[moneygenxyz] 07/8/2019 10:04

Impossible to know mwain. Position accordingly.

Knowing the aim though it’ll be heavy on forward looking stuff, achievements to date and may even have some exciting news as a cherry kicker.

[mwainw1973] 07/8/2019 09:58

So if they do miss forecast what are people's estimates on share price impact?

[moneygenxyz] 07/8/2019 09:58

I’m impressed at how close my rough estimations on impressions per hour was compared to the note.

Cheers Chessmaster looks sensible

[chessmaster10] 07/8/2019 09:55

I'l make this my last post on the topic of revenues as I know everyone's sick of it.

SuperG, I wouldn't place too much importance on the number of titles. Its impressions that counts, as per this note in the Peterhouse doc:

"Our forecasts are therefore deliberately cautious and not reflective of the full potential of the business.

On a best-case scenario, our forecasts would be achievable if the single title integrated so far outperformed."


A bit more number crunching on the potential H1 revenues, which is realistic based on numbers quoted from different sources:

FM total players 1,016,949, average of 250hrs play in 9 months = 166hrs in 6months

166 x 1,016,949 = 168,813,534 total hrs played H1 2019

1 impression every 96secs (Peterhouse report) = 37.5 POTENTIAL impressions per hr

37.5 * 168,813,534 = 6,330,507,525 total POTENTIAL impressions in H1 2019

Assumed 13% inventory sold so,

6,330,507,525 * 0.13 = 822,965,978 ACTUAL impressions

Assumed CPM is £2, so:

822,965,978 / 1000 = 822,965

822,965 * 2 = £1,645,931.


So, potentially £1.6m revenue from 1 game in H1 2019. Not too far off the estimate.

Results may not miss by as much as you think, SuperG.

[mcfly79] 07/8/2019 09:41

Me too. Let's agree to disagree and move on.

[moneygenxyz] 07/8/2019 09:40

I give up.

[superg1] 07/8/2019 09:39

So in that case with 7 games for H1 does that mean v the 24 forecast that revenue will be less than 1/3rd of the £1.75m forecast for H1.


The fact is they used 24 LIVE games for H1 to come to the £1.75 mill figure, and the facts seem to suggest they had 7 in play, FM probably being the top one. Dirt 2 does not feature until late Q2 at the earliest.

The 24 should now be moving to 42 for H2 but is now 8, if Dirt 2 is active.

They used 27 staff for cost figures Bids are on or have headed to over 50 now.

They talk of surrounding themselves with high quality staff, going to the US 4 times, they took 14 last time. Funds are to be spent on staff and tech upgrades.


So it's coin flip situation, nail some big news (or not) to excite investors and move forward OR the news to show revenue is way off and the spend way up compared to the forecast.

BIDs have thrown money at it (check the news) and they have to fill that hole somehow be it deals to plug the gap or a fund raise.

No harm in a fund raise if they have the big games in the bag.

So back to the point.

Investors pile in on hope they nail some big deals but the reality is the forecast is going to be missed by some way based on the figures available so far.

The CEO has hinted at big news and 25 plus bagger, the revenues are going to disappoint the market.

So you don't want to be going back to the market on a big miss and no big deals signed. before that miss news comes out.

[moneygenxyz] 07/8/2019 09:38

Oh I forgot to mention - they’ve just built a google cloud and Xbox cloud factory just off the M6 so the Traffic could double, triple or quadruple.

Which means more potential as you are paid per pair of eyeballs.

[chessmaster10] 07/8/2019 09:28

eh... £2 per day?

CPM is CPM i.e. £2 per 1000 impressions.

Based on that CPM, Revenue from 1m impressions per day in Asia would be £2k per day, or £360k for H1 2019.

[moneygenxyz] 07/8/2019 09:25

Correct both McFly and Chessmaster

Look at it like this

We already have 12 billboards every 1 mile down the M6 toll road and it switches ads depending on what reg number it reads. It’s a gold mine. Nobody else has a set up like it and advertisers are very hungry for it.

If we sold all billboards we would be in the money (£100m worth in FM alone x profit share%). That’s the potential.

It’s now James’ job to go out and get these billboards filled.

Easiest method to achieve that is make them electric and automated as opposed to the current pasting each time someone wants to show an ad.

The speed of executing that aspect can happen on a sixpence depending on the DSP.

At this point, new games are irrelevant... we need to fill current games. If we get more games, potential increases.

[superg1] 07/8/2019 09:22

CPM rate is shown as £2 per day.

Asia rate 1 mill per day/1000 for CPM rate, the CPM rate is per 1000 impressions

[chessmaster10] 07/8/2019 09:13

It seems clear to me that 25m is the MAXIMUM number of POSSIBLE impressions available if ALL inventory is sold... key words in capitals:

"Around 150,000 people play Football Manager on a typical day, spending an average of four hours in the game per day. According to Bidstack, this generates around 25m POTENTIAL impressions per day, giving the game an advertising INVENTORY worth over £100m per year."

SuperG,

Its clear from the Peterhouse note that they are NOT using 54m as the basis for the revenue calculation.

That is the maximum number of impressions available if all advertising inventory is sold. But, they clearly state that they assume that only 13% of billboard advertising space is sold.

They are not using 54m impressions as the basis for estimated revenue.

[mcfly79] 07/8/2019 09:12

I've copied some of my post below:


The 25m potential impressions per day figure in the prospectus is correct. Itâ€T82;s simple maths based on play time. Itâ€T82;s just the number of billboards available to show ads. Asia is not the largest market for FM, Europe is (and is also popular in the Americas). I donâ€482;t have the figures in front of me but letâ€482;s assume 10m of the potential impressions are for Asia. Therefore, the 1m impressions per day achieved in Asia in December in 2018 would represent a 10% fill rate, ahead of forecast.

This shows the opportunity when programmatic ad spend is up and running. The fill rate and revenue per impression is expected to increased considerably if Bidstack can establish in-game advertising next to other forms of digital advertising (both in the programmatic systems and in the minds of ad agencies). The programmatic fill rates for other types of digital advertising (web site, apps) is very high, sometimes approaching 100% and certainly over 50%. Just think about when you open a website –; there is always an ad showing and itâ€T82;s normally targeted.

The revenue per impression should also go up with the real time bidding for all of the ad space through the programmatic systems (which will allow the ads to be targeted and far more valuable to brands).

[mcfly79] 07/8/2019 09:10

superg,

I covered this in my post 5679.

You're confusing available impression with actual impressions.

As such your posts are misleading, since you're suggesting that 54m impressions per day were forecast for H1.

[moneygenxyz] 07/8/2019 09:06

Chessmaster it’s from the below interview. I’ve crosschecked the figures in many posts above and it feels right.

SG is fixated on FM only actually achieving 1m impressions out of the 25m previously expected. I think he’ll find that the sales of FM are heavily U.K. and Europe weighted (naturally!)