BHP Billiton Share Discussion Threads

[my retirement fund] 27/11/2015 08:43

what disaster are you on about?

[silkywhite] 27/11/2015 08:43

Samarco are a limited liability company jointly owned by Vale and Billiton you clown.

[montyhedge] 27/11/2015 08:32

I could not believe the size of the disaster when CNBC showed it. Forget any hopes of a dividend, shareholders will pay for this.

[rickmay] 27/11/2015 08:14

PENCIL IN £2 to £3 it's coming !!!!

[essentialinvestor] 27/11/2015 07:50

dean, approx - 5.5% atm.

I did consider a very small buy here yesterday but was not brave enough,
RIO on my watch list.

[deanroberthunt] 27/11/2015 07:45

China down 4% today, this could be brutal......775p

[arja] 26/11/2015 20:20

chart is telling the story and looks awful and seems to be underperforming RIO .

[rickmay] 26/11/2015 18:42

PENCIL in £2 to £3 Target it's coming folks

[goldpiguk] 26/11/2015 18:21

Hi Essential,

BHP is in a position to rebase the dividend without junking its credit rating so it should not be a question of one or the other.

Goldpig

[essentialinvestor] 26/11/2015 16:57

The credit rating takes priority over the dividend for BHP imv.

[goldpiguk] 26/11/2015 16:53

Hi Idioterna,

Yes if BHP is to continue with a progressive dividend policy it may well need to cut the final dividend. This would give it scope to gradually increase the payout over time.

If BHP holds the current dividend payout it seems unlikely it would be able to follow a progressive dividend policy over the next few years. A rebasing of the dividend now would really be in the best interests of long term shareholders.

I think Montyhedge is on the right lines, but given BHP managements strong commitment to dividends they will want to avoid passing it altogether.

Goldpig

[idioterna] 26/11/2015 16:52

It is possible that they will just maintain the dividend instead of increasing it, but the only reason to actually cut it would be if they acquired "fire-sale" assets off competitors. Which would lead to even higher dividends when the cycle turns full circle. It's a win win situation, which is why the sell off is so surprising. EBITDA leaves a good margin for metals to fall by another 20% and still have dividends covered. This isn't BP which has to sell assets to cover dividends.

[essentialinvestor] 26/11/2015 16:39

Thanks for your view, I would be really surprised if the dividend is
not cut in 2016, but that is just my best guess.

[idioterna] 26/11/2015 16:24

Ess - I also have a holding in RIO, there isn't really much to choose between them (I can't differentiate between the management teams at either, both very sound), but BLT edge it for me with their progressive dividend policy. Not to mention the strategic vision (and we are talking decades here not months) and since they knocked 20% off the price it's just too much of a bargain to place anywhere else. It will take a lot more than a discounted share price to dissuade me that this isn't a screaming buy.

[deanroberthunt] 26/11/2015 15:35

KAZ is doing well.....

[montyhedge] 26/11/2015 15:28

I could not believe the size on the disaster, they showed it on CNBC.This will cost a absolute fortune. Forget the dividend.

[essentialinvestor] 26/11/2015 14:10

idiot, why BLT and not RIO out of interest?.

RIO look to have the better CEO, just imv.

[idioterna] 26/11/2015 14:02

I'm quite happy to keep acquiring shares anywhere below $33 so the lower we go the better for me. BLT has released no statements to warrant the latest sell off, and as far as the Samarco situation goes it has nothing in common with BPs Macondo debacle. That was a disaster at every level, not least management where Tony Hayward should never have waived the existing cap on liabilities in place since the Exxon Valdez. Pure idiocy, no wonder he walked.

[deanroberthunt] 26/11/2015 12:12

731p was the credit crunch low.

[deanroberthunt] 26/11/2015 12:05

the only safe, as safe as one can be, bet, is RIO.

[deanroberthunt] 26/11/2015 12:01

these miners really are on the brink as we head into the 8th year of a bull market, a recession is not far away imho....and in many others.

[essentialinvestor] 26/11/2015 11:57

There may be a short term bounce for the sector as current sentiment
is in the floor, however it does like 2016 is a more likely low imv.

Not brave enough to buy BLT myself.

[deanroberthunt] 26/11/2015 11:45

AAL look a likely target for the Lehmans scenario.

[my retirement fund] 26/11/2015 10:51

My thoughts are we aint likely to see capitulation until next year when someone very big goes down and we see that Lehmans moment.

Glencore may be the one?

BLT at £4 in the cold light of day may be fair value on that day but in reality the market tends to hit extremes in both directions when one has max greed or max frear.

£1.50 - £2.50 is probably more realistic upon judgement day surely?