BHP Billiton Share Discussion Threads

[montyhedge] 26/11/2015 10:36

Some investors buying hoping the dividend will be paid, crazy.No chance.

[deanroberthunt] 26/11/2015 09:56

yep, it couldn't have come at a worse time, I think it could be worse than even the most bearish of omnibears target....possibly £3-4

[essentialinvestor] 26/11/2015 09:34

dean, are any directors buying?

[essentialinvestor] 26/11/2015 09:33

BP had prodigious cashflow and was able to divest assets easily, supported
by the high price of oil at the time.

BP was in a much stronger position IMV.

[deanroberthunt] 26/11/2015 09:31

£6...before even considering buying

[tsmith2] 26/11/2015 09:23

We need a capitulation moment here....those want to sell but clinging in panicked into selling and maybe then we can move on

[bookbroker] 26/11/2015 09:17

Is this co. now facing its BP. Macondo moment!

[montyhedge] 26/11/2015 09:17

My thoughts are, once the dividend is passed, I just can't see how they can maintained it, my target is 550p.

[idioterna] 25/11/2015 22:25

Logan, I think you'll find that BLT & Vale will come to a mutually acceptable deal with the authorities, after all, it's Samarco who'll carry the can. As to the P/E, the ADRs are trading at $27.55 so it's trading at 18.20 times earning and with 1.61 Billion shares and an EBITDA of $8.5 Billion there is no need to touch the dividend.

It's a solid company with a solid strategy that rewards sharholders with an 8,6% dividend. This close to the end of the cycle I'd be buying at $35 since my time frame is 7 to 10 years. I tend towards the 7% startegy, just don't usually get the same again on a dividend too.

While sad the Pilbara fatalities are pretty much inline for a "high-end" operator in a "high-end" environment, i.e., the same ratios occur at Boliden's iron-ore mine in Kiruna, Sweden. Whatever the regulations, you can't protect all of the people all of the time. The risks with that type of equipment in those types of environment will always be more substantial than, for example, driving a fork-lift in a wharehouse (though there are far too many fatalities there too). That is why wages are considerably higher in a western mining context. That said, mining and wild-catting have always attracted the higher risk profile types. A bit like spreadbetters if you will. Risk/Reward etc,. bound to be a few burnouts on the way.

[loganair] 25/11/2015 20:47

Also having a bottom line which is under pressure is BHP Billiton (LSE: BLT). Its earnings are due to fall by 54% in the current year and this could have a negative impact on the company’s share price in the short run. That’s especially the case since even after BHP’s shares have fallen by 45% in the last year they still trade on a forward price to earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.6.

In the long run, though, BHP has huge growth potential. That’s because it is in the process of reorganising its business so as to concentrate on generating efficiencies and lowering its cost curve. And, at a time when many of its sector peers are enduring severe financial difficulties, BHP’s relatively strong balance sheet is likely to mean that it not only emerges from the current commodity crisis, but does so in a stronger position relative to its peers. As such, it appears to be a sound long term buy.

[loganair] 25/11/2015 20:46

BHP dam failure a foreseeable risk by Graeme King:

In the early 2000s, after a run of fatal incidents, BHP Billiton developed the Fatal Risk Control Protocol specifically aimed at preventing fatalities by capturing the learning's from previous incidents.

Of note is protocol 5 – Hazardous Material Management. It is a well-written chapter noting what should be done to manage the risk of items like tailings dams and other hazardous materials. This demonstrates the risks were recognised to be "foreseeable" and that actions needed to be taken to do what a "reasonable person" would be expected to do.

Also of note is that in the 1990s Argyle Diamond mine relocated its contractors' fly-in fly-out camp because it was downstream of a potential tailings dam failure – based on the risk of a possible (but unlikely) failure and the likely severe consequences. Argyle did what a reasonable person would be expected to do to mitigate a foreseeable risk.

In the above context it appears BHP Billiton has been negligent in failing to mitigate a "foreseeable" event – except if the dam failure at Bento Rodrigues was an act of God, which should be apparent by now.

While the above comment might appear harsh, history shows that the board and senior management of BHP Billiton are out of touch with their operations. A few years ago, the iron ore division in the Pilbara – their main cash-cow – was on the cusp of being shut down by the regulator because of a spate of preventable fatalities. BHP Billiton has excellent "tier 1" ore bodies, well developed procedures and systems of work and should outperform Rio Tinto because of its superior resource base. But its failure to reach its potential is because of weak and/or inept management.

[essentialinvestor] 25/11/2015 18:43

idioterna, strange how the non execs at BLT are not buying given the
incredible yield?.

[anley2] 25/11/2015 17:58

Well said...........

[dontbitethehandthatfeedsyou] 25/11/2015 14:12

CHART BREAKING DOWN!!! £6,£5,£4,£3 AND £2 IS COMING FOLKS.

[anley2] 24/11/2015 16:04

To The Last Poster.........

Could you explain how you have worked out that the chart OR you is looking for £2-3 per share - over how long - and then give us your valuation of the business on a worst case basis i.e. Eith no Brazil business........

I have seen your posts on other sites and have to say...........

[dontbitethehandthatfeedsyou] 24/11/2015 12:56

Chart looking REALLY BAD .£2 -£3 target.

[montyhedge] 24/11/2015 09:09

I cannot see anything to go for. Forget the dividend.

[netnut] 24/11/2015 08:57

It seems that's holding up well despite the footsie being down 1% at time of writing. Just saying.

[dontbitethehandthatfeedsyou] 23/11/2015 20:31

you may say £6 but i've got a target of £2-£3 pounds.This is set to PLUMMET.

[rickmay] 23/11/2015 15:42

GOING TO £6 OR LOWER.

[robertfaulkner] 23/11/2015 08:53

Why the big drop this morning, Platinum at low???

[idioterna] 20/11/2015 11:03

cashflo - yes Ken had a fantastic strategy with BARC trading that range for years, I tried a similar approach with BA. but it became too time consuming. Work needed to be done at some point :). I traded my BP stock when Macondo blew, been on the dark side ever since, XOM is almost bullet proof. But I have a reduced holding since it hit $85, I just fail to see the logic when crude is unlikely to edge above $70 in the next few years. My exposure to the mining sector giants just continues to grow and I see no reason why BLT will not come out of this as a rather big winner, with RIO a close second.

As Peny says, Trade well and prosper.

[cashflo] 19/11/2015 23:21

Hi Idiot glad you are enjoying retirement - I was thinking about a new bull in commodities aswell. Infact I'm currently thinking along the lines of why BP has strength above 360 when they are selling assets to pay the div, does somene know something I don't and is oil on it's way back up to $70?

It could be the easiest trade for the next 5 years. imo, dyor etc etc

I'm fine ta still buying the BP, taking the div's I keep a permanent holding and short small on the ups, makes money slow but I'm essentially doing next to nothing for it so cannot complain.

I remember the Barc thread years ago the range was such a great opportnity Ken was seriously on to something with that method. I've just logged back into advfn been busy and out of the message boards for years.

regards