Best Of The Best Share Discussion Threads

[investographer] 22/7/2021 20:17

Just read the comments- sounds like an awful competition.

[pireric] 22/7/2021 18:38

FYI, was sent this by a non-BOTB investor elsewhere. Spot the difference in how they are running their new comp vs. BOTB. Will see if this proves the first proper attempt at building a credible competitor to BOTB. A lot of the formats seem very similar to how BOTB are running their competitions (see video below)



Eric

[investographer] 21/7/2021 11:46

Article about Botb https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2021/07/20/8-zulu-principle-low-peg-stocks/

[investographer] 16/7/2021 12:08

Special dividend received- thank you!

[investographer] 14/7/2021 17:46

#BOTB an amazing 22 1 trades today. These are not single share trades, but blocks of shares that market makers use to disguise the true size of trades, especially in illiquid stocks. The last one at the full ask of 17 pounds Look out for TR1's #Markslater @SlaterInside

[death by donut] 13/7/2021 16:15

Unknown on SharepadDbD

[feverfan] 13/7/2021 15:22

Someone traded over 40k shares earlier at £16. Can anyone see if it’s a buy or sell? Pretty chunky either way!

Annual report should be dropping any day hmm…

[investographer] 11/7/2021 14:13

Mark Slater thinks long term, unlike the majority of retail traders who have mostly sold out here now. No TR1 from Slater Fund, so they still hold.There have been blips here over the last 20 years, but quality of management has always shine through.They have 100 bagged this company over the last 10 years, not many companies have done this.

[smarties123] 11/7/2021 13:28

I think the Slater fund took a lot of the management’s shares. I wonder what they make of it all

[castleford tiger] 10/7/2021 15:09

salmon

It certainly looks like the usual push things through asap and talking the job up pre the sale.
I am sure those that took part are pretty annoyed that a slow down is now underway!

That said its up to them to do DD

[salmonf1shcake] 09/7/2021 20:25

The problem for me is that management come across as a bunch of charlatans and chancers. Their track record was previously good but selling a large stake at £24 and then warning on profits shortly after makes this uninvestable for me.

[3ootuk] 08/7/2021 20:58

Maybe the last few quarters have seen covid-fuelled growth such that the company expanded in one year to where it expected to be in several years time of normal growth.
Being online and digital eases the massive increase in players, though churn is hard to estimate or control in these unique circumstances.
It's quite easy to lose financial control when numbers increase suddenly, but the company appears to have kept control of costs. Maybe the FSP concentrated their minds even more on this.

Let's see what the next few quarters bring.
It's still a quality company with many untapped potential areas to expand in to.

[doctor888] 08/7/2021 20:31

@investographer - well, the number of installations is trending up nicely at least!

[investographer] 08/7/2021 14:29

https://www.appbrain.com/app/botb-win-your-dream-car/com.botb.winyourdreamcar

[feverfan] 08/7/2021 10:14

It’s a fair challenge and one that is as you say of growing significance. There were some good stats on usage of mobile users so one would assume lots of those will translate into the app over time.

The apps will certainly be helpful for engagement. Does anyone have any analytics on app downloads / usage?

[gilgil13] 08/7/2021 09:50

How do you think the apps will have impacted website views? Google says it has has 10k+ installs, and given number of reviews on Google & Apple app stores can assume Apple is same, so minimum 20k installs (but could be a lot more as the next band up is 100k).

I would imagine that those installing app are the heaviest users so maybe historically visited website on average 5 times a month? You therefore end up with an additional 100k-1m monthly visits that won't be being tracked by SimilarWeb vs. traffic that historically would have gone to website.

A lot of guesswork in that, but I think website traffic numbers are now less meaningful than they were in the past due to the apps.

[feverfan] 08/7/2021 08:08

I see a trend and it’s flat sadly...the 6 months from Jan - Jun 21 are a little up and little down but broadly flat (I’m looking only at the chart so there’s some estimating here - someone who’s been tracking the exact figures feel free to correct me).

Maybe July will be better with new TV ads and the Sun/other partnerships - but I’m more risk averse now having thought about some of the potential near term headwinds. I await the July figures with eager anticipation!

[doctor888] 08/7/2021 07:52

It is a pity similarweb does not show data beyond 6 months. However, engagement goes up and down every month and I do not see a trend here as yet. Having said that, if things were expected, why would management comment on reduced engagement this time round?

[feverfan] 08/7/2021 07:38

I’ve sold 85% of my holding down regrettably. I can’t see how they’re going to avoid a profit warning here and potentially up to a year or two of pain. Long term I’m confident they’ll do fine so maybe I will live to regret it when they come out punching, but the nail in the coffin was the June webstats out last night. 11.6% reduction in visits. When directors are under the cosh to deliver growth, margins suffer - and every anecdotal evidence I see suggests anyone who was having a great time with FB advertising last year is no longer generating such impressive returns - this is going to hurt them on margins. Their margins were superb before so I have no doubt in the profitability of the model, it’s just that I can’t believe 120p EPS or whatever it was will be matched again this year unless something drastic happens. The operational gearing that made the company look heroic on the way up unfortunately works the other way also... a 10%-15% drop in revenue could easily IMO lead to a 30-50% drop in EPS. Maybe they’ll get away with less but at the moment I was clinging on based solely on trust in management (and strong balance sheet) but I can’t invest based solely on that.

There’s a number of short term headwinds I think they’re going to face over July not limited to: Yiannimize competitions getting going, a rumoured heat wave to coincide with reopening on July 19 - everyone booking holidays / out in the pub / enjoying the sun?

I’ve kept a small holding and will be observing from the sidelines and happily buy in if this drops much more, maybe £10-12. I need to do some crunching.

The annual report was out by now last year so should come any day. I wonder if that will say anything new or just rehash the somewhat decline in engagement phrase we all hated!

[clanger66] 07/7/2021 18:39

You are quite right, the post was written in very simplistic terms and was really to highlight the comment from 888. However if you look the net margin for year end 2021 was 25.2 percent on revenue of 45.7 million. For year end 2020 the margin was 19.8 percent on revenue of 17.8 million. If we assume a drop of 20 percent in sales (brings sales to 36.6 million). I think the management will try and keep the margins steady as they seem to be adjusting the cash they offer with the cars to potential winners. If they don't manage this maybe we assume net margins could fall to 23.5 percent which equates to an EPS number of 91.5 pence. That values the stock at 17.5x which I still don't think is bad value. Obviously these are just my thoughts so everyone should do their own research.

[solooiler] 07/7/2021 17:22

Why would you conclude that a 20% reduction in revenues would only reduce eps to 98p? If one looks at how the costs against revenue of botb has grown the impact on eps could be much much more negative than that

[jeff h] 07/7/2021 10:14

Tipped in MasterInvestor:-

[clanger66] 07/7/2021 08:51

There's been a seller ever since the results and I don't doubt those trades were from the same guy, but someone had to take the stock and considering how flighty the market makers here are I guess the paper was placed with an end buyer. These buyers generally step up to take the final bits of the order as they're often tipped off that the selling is coming to an end. It's interesting that for days now I could always get a quote to buy up to 3,500 shares often inside the offer yet today can only get 1,600 and that's close to the offer price. I might obviously be completely wrong but after many years working in this industry its my guess.

[qvg] 07/7/2021 08:46

Thanks Jeff H, Talksport seem to be quite a strong website, 15m visitors / month. I guess BOTB will be paying referral fees?