Best Of The Best Share Discussion Threads

[amencorner] 07/7/2021 09:01

Indeed, I looked at those trades mentioned by Investographer, 10583 & 10000 early in the day, and they were sells @ £15.00 & not buys.

[feverfan] 07/7/2021 08:52

They were sells (at £15). Presumably what caused the price to crater in the morning (before it recovered later).

[investographer] 06/7/2021 22:04

2 very decent buys from this morning totalling over 20000 shares!

[jeff h] 06/7/2021 14:21

Another BOTB partnership:-

[clanger66] 06/7/2021 11:59

I would imagine it would be quite bad ethics for directors to start buying at the moment so soon after issuing the recent negative outlook and following from the March placing.

[dewtrader] 06/7/2021 11:33

May well go back to £10. Directors don't seem to want them either

[serratia] 06/7/2021 10:12

1upside,

Revenue growth going back was 14.7%, 7%, 19.8%, 14.3%, 20.1% and 157%. If you search hard enough there are various figures when combined with figures in the financials allow me to set up equations which so far have been very accurate at calculating revenue.
Last year was a one off due to the bids. Perhaps anything under 10% is a slow down? At the end of May they looked to be on an annualised rate of 7.2%. At the end of June 4.9%. They have shown last year that they can effect the growth rate so I'm watching to see if they can pick things up over the next couple of months.
The metrics I use have been accurate for the last six half years as growth was going well. I cannot guarantee they're stable in a slower growth scenario although I've made some adjustments.

[wanttowin] 06/7/2021 09:37

You are not alone, it's fukin painful.

[az4hr] 06/7/2021 09:20

I’ve been blindly keeping faith feel like an absolute mug

[1ups1de] 06/7/2021 08:12

Exiting expensive airport concessions to a digital model will, as you say, strengthen gross margins. Realistically, post Covid they will also have to up marketing spend. Nevertheless I was very surprised to see they only have 60k subscribers . Management have admitted that sales are slowing ( how serious ?) yet you see continued growth. What's behind this assertion ? Thx.

[serratia] 03/7/2021 22:03

TT,

Thanks for your input. Some observations -

GP over recent years was 55.8%, 59.1% and 61.9%. They have managed the margins even when increasing the value of the prizes. Ticket prices I assume have been set to maintain the margin. You have reduced this to 53% in both cases. I would be likely to maintain the margin at say 61%.
Admin last year in H2 was £7.1m. They upped the spend last year in the customer grab so last years H1 was expected to be higher than the previous year. H2 also stayed up but they didn't see a similar rate of revenue growth. You went from £9.5m to £12m. As growth has slowed I'd expect them to keep pushing the marketing so I'd stick with last years H2 rate giving £14.2m for this year.
So, I have a lower COS and higher admin costs. Profits then come down to revenue estimates. You have a range £30 to £40m vs £46m last year. I have a series of inputs which give me a good steer re monthly revenue. At present it's signalling a £47m rate to date but falling slowly at the end of June. I won't feel confident until the end of month 5 but if forced to guess I'm seeing 4.5% growth maybe falling to flat if the decline continues.
Combining all that I see an OP ahead of your OP bull case. We're only 2 months in so we'll have to see what they can do in the coming months.
The unknown is what price the market puts on cash flow. It was running at 23* OCF until the slowdown comment dropped it to 11*. What's the correct margin ? I don't know but the present price of my estimated OCF is again around 10 - 11* OCF. Looking forward they have the cash flow to pay a good dividend.
One question I ask myself is would I invest in a high dividend payer valued at around 10* OCF ? Probably. Let's see how things develop in the coming months.

[alotto] 03/7/2021 21:13

I agree Bookb

[bookbroker] 03/7/2021 20:48

Good chance this be back at £8.00 before long, gaps to fill, negative news and just a reality check. Remember it started 2020 at £4.00 prior to all the growth in revenue news, etc. Irrespective of altered business model to online still a huge amount to live up to.

[1ups1de] 03/7/2021 18:33

Botb website confirms 60k subscribers. Post Covid lockdown I fear the novelty/interest may wane. Surely it would take significant core subscriber activity to get anywhere close to 2021 nos ? Best look a year back & apply a more modest growth projection ? If you do that & undertake a dcf £17 still looks punchy !Best wait to see how soft the first half results will be before pressing a buy button.

[feverfan] 03/7/2021 18:31

I think these share sales need to be put into context? The directors had built up huge equity and it’s only right that they want to take some chips off the table. They sold 1/3 of their stake roughly... if they sold 2/3 I’d be more worried. They also indicated interest in cashing in some of their chips back in June 2020 when the share price was only what like £12? So £24 must have felt like a good outcome for them... they didn’t sell up fully as presumably they thought they could get a better deal over the long run.

[3ootuk] 03/7/2021 17:12

A book building exercise can be run discreetly with institutions. They would be subject to restrictions on trading whilst part of the exercise and privy to the latest information. They also have the ability to relatively quickly invest a large sum.
Whereas dealing with retail investors would take longer and probably be more expensive.

[alotto] 03/7/2021 17:02

Why would they sell to institutions?

[feverfan] 03/7/2021 16:25

Read it Twenties Trader, a good article. Only thing I didn’t agree with was the point about diluted share capital; the directors simply sold their shares to institutions. No new shares have been placed (apart from a tiny number under the share incentive schemes). :)

[thetwentiestrader] 03/7/2021 16:11

Hi all,

My latest article is on BOTB. I cover the fundamentals, quality aspects of the investment story and a review of financials with some scenario based estimates for 2022-25.
hxxps://www.thetwentiestrader.com/post/should-you-invest-in-best-of-the-best

[alotto] 03/7/2021 10:46

Massive share sales by the CEO, Chairman and directors back in April. Then issue of first warning.
I'd stay clear from this for the time being.
What's your thoughts on the director deals?

[serratia] 02/7/2021 23:18

If I take a worst case scenario and sales stop growing and are flat re last year £10 would be around 6* OCF. That would still allow a large dividend to be paid so I think £10 is too low even if they show no growth.
If you have figures to justify £10 I'd be happy to run through them.

[onjohn] 02/7/2021 22:59

Sub 10 pound soon


Restrictions ease 19 July and as props do other stuff I expect profit waning no2

[davr0s] 01/7/2021 19:27

It's because it went through below mid spread

[hotaimstocks] 01/7/2021 18:57

bought 100 shares at 1644p today and showing in RED ?