Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[jrphoenixw2] 06/9/2017 11:19

At the current rate of pay-out, c52p/semi-annual, today's open at c100p down is one years div lost in a single morning.
The market is NOT impressed.

[redips2] 06/9/2017 09:36

..... 2.7% down is not tanking !!

[jrphoenixw2] 06/9/2017 09:02

Inline, not a single ray of light, usual reasons why all the headwinds are external, meanwhile they're voting themselves '£200mill/yr' salaries. Great. No wonder it's tanked.

[r ball] 04/9/2017 20:30

Normally update too. I might turn up as they owe me £20k for work done.

[jrphoenixw2] 04/9/2017 20:11

Good point - 6/9 @11am per my diary. Should be interesting.

[r ball] 04/9/2017 18:05

Agm on weds.

[jrphoenixw2] 31/8/2017 10:21

Nice opening gap-higher this morning, prior close 3700p, open this morning 3722p. Then as often happens it retraced to 3701p almost completely filling the gap, and is now higher again. Pretty decent volume for a sleepy time of year.
Like you This-Is I was pondering the impact of index buying too. You might expect some speculative buying now to profit from the promotion [changes post-close 15/9 with effect 18/9 IIRC]. The trackers with a mandate to strictly track will have to wait. What you could call 'smart trackers' might be taking out derivative based longs or similar beforehand, not sure.
There are also broader funds with a mandate to buy UK shares, but only those in the FTSE-100, so they should be back in the market.

Looking back to last Aug/Sep when it was demoted I don't see what could have been a wild demotion swing. Such a thing happened after the BREXIT vote around the last week of June. If there wasn't a demotion swing down, maybe there won't be much of one up, don't know. But either way promotion is clearly a positive.

'Will there be profit taking' - maybe we should see some solid promotion driven profit taking place before that happens? ;)

- I wonder how Odey is doing?

[this_is_me] 31/8/2017 08:19

That is bound to result in buying by index trackers and closet trackers. The big question is whether there will be profit taking by others

[curriedquaker] 30/8/2017 17:37

BKG make FTSE 100 along with NMC Group. Royal Mail and Provident Financial out.

[jrphoenixw2] 30/8/2017 17:37

News just out - BKG is getting promoted! One year in the hinterland and they've reclaimed this crown. :-D


'NMC Health and Berkeley Group to join FTSE 100
Provident Financial and Royal Mail to enter FTSE 250 in rebalance
FTSE Russell, the global index provider, confirms today that NMC Health and Berkeley Group will be joining the FTSE 100 Index. In the rebalance, Provident Financial and Royal Mail will leave the UK’s leading index and enter the FTSE 250 Index.
The rules-driven, impartial quarterly reviews ensure the indexes continue to portray an accurate reflection of the market they represent, and form an essential component to the management of the indexes.
[edit]
All changes from this review will be implemented at the close of business Friday, 15 September 2017 and take effect from the start of trading on Monday, 18 September 2017.' [continues]

[jrphoenixw2] 30/8/2017 13:32

On one level I can see what you mean. Buying back, putting the shares into Treasury and cancelling them does not alter the value of the company. Perhaps buy-backs have the secondary result of making a stock relatively more attractive, if it's regarded as having a form of underpinned price; and that helps raise the market capitalisation? I'm second guessing myself now... ah well, not long to wait to find out!

Mentioned earlier, the current version of the FTSE-Russell 'Ground rules'
ftse.com/products/downloads/FTSE_UK_Index_Series.pdf
And a second sub-policy re: the impact of corporate events vs the reshuffles
ftse.com/products/downloads/Corporate_Actions_and_Events_Guide.pdf

[pj fozzie] 30/8/2017 11:22

jrphoenix,

Re: buying your way to promotion - surely that should have no real impact. The reason a share would go up in value due to a buy back, would be because there are less shares now available. To buyback into the FTSE 100 would be impossible.

Cheers,
PJ

[dr_smith] 30/8/2017 10:15

Thank-you again jr.
I held with confidence through the referendum - as no matter in or out, folks need places to live - it is just a question of how big a house each buyer can afford...IMV

If anything, for that reason, I expected new housing company sp's to go up, as the safe port in the storm. I was way wrong short term as we know.. but happy my long term belief is justified.

Surprised to see today HSS sales (which I assume=rental income or turnover, not sales in true sense)are down and profit warning issued.

Putting a positive twist on that, it could be that more small independents are now working directly for the big builders, who carry their own equipment.
I have no conviction in that.. just an idle thought.

[jrphoenixw2] 30/8/2017 09:50

That's it Dr-Smith, I share your ping-pong analogy; that's avoided by having the 90th and above, and 111th and below hurdles. It adds another dimension* to the promotion/demotion stakes and hence you get some misinformation and uncertainty in the media until the LSE Notice of Rebalance is issued post-close tonight.

This from this morning, you'll see that they are clearly not quite sure yet if BKG is getting promoted www.everyinvestor.co.uk/2017/08/30/who-will-fall-out-of-ftse-100/
'Possible promotion to the FTSE
Is housebuilder Berkeley set to bounce back to the FTSE 100 a year to the date that it was relegated to the FTSE 250? It appears so as the group is currently in prime position to return to the UK’s largest index.
The shares dropped 30% after the EU Referendum last year as demand concerns hit. However, it appears faith has been restored. Courtesy of greater cash flow and an improving sentiment for house builders , the shares have rallied and are now trading at better than pre-Brexit levels. Furthermore, investors recognise that the yield is attractive and a special dividend programme has undoubtedly attracted some positive attention.'



* There are other ground rules that can further complicate it too. You can find them all in the official FTSE-Russell methodology. IIRC one is that any impact of shares bought-back in corporate actions during a set period of time pre the revaln cut-off are excluded - ie a company can't simply buy-back it's way to promotion.

[dr_smith] 30/8/2017 09:27

Thank-you jr.
I wasn't aware of the overlap rules, but they make sense to avoid pointless short term ping pong moves.

[jrphoenixw2] 30/8/2017 09:22

An interesting fin analysis of BKG vs it's peer group www.capitalcube.com/blog/index.php/berkeley-group-holdings-plc-undervalued-relative-to-peers-but-dont-ignore-the-other-factors/

[jrphoenixw2] 26/8/2017 09:49

@This-is
According to my notes on XD 24/Aug, for 51.79p, shares were -3p to 3683p.
So they were down on the day, but then another perspective is they were up a net of 48.79p on the day if including the div entitlement.

Volume recently has been low, but then volumes generally are in the typical deep summer lull. However on Monday through Thursday volumes in BKG were somewhat above average [Mon 129%, Tue 137%, Wed 117%, Thu 131%] before resuming the long w/e doze on Friday [80.5%]. Despite the Friday Zzzzz someone was buying, as it was +15p/+.41%>3698p, despite the FTSE100/250 both ending slightly negative on the day.

[ganthorpe] 26/8/2017 09:36

Dubious about positive effect on share price of buybacks.
Would much rather have cash in hand with full divi.
Buying a few percent has minimal effect on earnings per share.
Hard to dedect effect on share price of buying back?

[r ball] 25/8/2017 18:22

Ex div yesterday

[this_is_me] 25/8/2017 17:24

Shares went ex div and went up.

[bluemango] 24/8/2017 02:53

Another reduction in Odey's short position, now down to 0.81%, the third reduction in their short since June.

[jrphoenixw2] 21/8/2017 14:57

BKG is top of the FTSE-250 (Mkt Capn)@ 5.055Bn, would put it at 93rd in the FTSE-100 (a/o now). Next reshuffle valuation cut-off, post-close Tuesday 29th.

Afterthought: I'd forgotten that the share goes X/D on 24th for 51.76p. With about 136mm shares in circulation that suggests -£70mm off the market capn, pre the reval cut-off. Hmm...

[jrphoenixw2] 17/8/2017 16:01

Nice, 3908.
FWIW - Think it's a reiteration [of their buy] up from their previous target of 31-May of 3604.