Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[r ball] 15/5/2017 22:31

How will cross rail affect prices. Only 18 months to go now.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 10/5/2017 10:49

Hi Phoenix ... just wondered if you had latest FTSE250/100 ranking data to hand to give an update on relative likelihood of inclusion - thanks

[jrphoenixw2] 10/5/2017 10:41

Apparently BKG has a 'Piotroski F-Score (financial strength from 1-9)' of 8 out of 9. This is a measure I rarely hear mentioned so it interested me to hear that BKG fared so positively. The below headline sounds like a typical spammy click-bait kind of thing, but the analysis is objective and sound from what I can see.

'10 best stocks for high-yield dividend investors'
[...]

[rcturner2] 10/5/2017 08:43

I'm out now. Had a great run from £25 again.

[r ball] 10/5/2017 08:42

Read across from Barrett

[2350220] 10/5/2017 08:38

Is this lovely rise down to Blackrock Investments adding, to give them 10% holding?
John

[jrphoenixw2] 03/5/2017 10:09

Isn't the extension of that line of thought that you don't mind whether it's in the 250 or 100?

[rcturner2] 03/5/2017 09:55

You only get demoted because your share price and market cap are falling, which is depressing. There is no additional negative effect for the demotion.

[jrphoenixw2] 03/5/2017 09:50

@RCT. Interesting, I haven't been watching the reshuffles for as long as you so haven't that perspective. But I was holding BKG when it was demoted and it's an all round depressing experience IMO.

[rcturner2] 03/5/2017 09:06

I think the recent evidence is that moving from one index to another has very little effect now. When trackers first became big there was a measurable effect but not now.

[jrphoenixw2] 03/5/2017 08:53

The reshuffle is once a quarter, and the last one had a cut-off date for valuation of 1-March, with the reshuffle taking place on circa 17-March. As it is a quarterly process I'm estimating the cut-off for the next one is 1-June. [The actuals can be found buried somewhere on the LSE website :)]

From what I've seen you get articles identifying the likely promotions and relegations just starting to appear about say two weeks prior to the cut-off. I.e. that might be starting in c2 weeks from now.

Not all trackers are the same. Some are 100% plain vanilla, others have some capacity to deviate from the latter. Maybe use derivatives or 'front-run' the rumours before the cut-off. But from what I've seen previously the cut-off date is when the significant market reaction commences.

I agree, if it were promoted you might assume that FTSE-250 trackers would sell it. But I imagine there are more '100' trackers than '250'. Being in the 100 also carries significant status/profile in it's own right and that carries value.

[r ball] 03/5/2017 06:16

Dumping by FTSe 250Trackers prior?

[jrphoenixw2] 02/5/2017 18:17

And it's currently 3rd highest Market Cap in the 250 index, with the lowest 3 on the 'big-board' smaller. So... when is the next re-shuffle, when all the FTSE-100 trackers will be buying? :)

[jrphoenixw2] 02/5/2017 13:27

Odey increased his short on 20th March at 3180p from 0.85% to 0.97%
0.12% of 137.74M shares in issue = circa -165k shares on that last trade so that's another £1/4M down.
His total position is currently circa -1.34M, and that's down £2M since 20-March.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 20/4/2017 09:53

Well take Odey well publicised positions then - long Sky/short ITV; long Plus500/short IG Index - it's the way he and most hedge funds invest with sector neutrality and he'll invariably be long something in home builders against a short in BKG

[jrphoenixw2] 20/4/2017 09:49

If you look at say the 1-Yr px charts for the housebuilders in the FTSE-350 they have a common theme. Jump off the BREXIT-vote cliff and subsequently slowly recover. So no obvious intra-sector long/short play there, but hey what do I know etc... I take your point about a sector-neutral play. A year ago you might have shorted BKG due to stamp-duty hikes at the higher end, stamp-duty 'extortion' on second-home buyers, and had a non high-end builder on the long side. But then Sterling fell off a cliff and made BKGs products a bargain for foreign investors. Swings and roundabouts maybe...

Lol at Chinese Investor, shld have swooped in late 2016 when it was at 2400p

[chinese investor] 20/4/2017 09:10

Looking Good !

[raffles the gentleman thug] 20/4/2017 09:09

Doubt they are hurting that much Phoenix as vast majority of hedge funds today are little more than sector neutral, so undoubtedly their BKG shorts are merely paired against something in the sector on the long side and they are content to see BKG go against them

[jrphoenixw2] 20/4/2017 08:56

If you're 69 with a huge amount of wealth tied up in one stock I'm not sure how I'd define 'too soon'. Directors should have a better insight to future price direction than most but it's still never going to be spot on. And there is a point in time [esp re: age] where missing out on some subsequent upside doesn't matter as much any more. Perhaps he crystallised it prior to year-end for tax purposes, or to diversify into other risk assets, or simply to spend or donate. I can't imagine he's ruing his sale.

Put another way, there have been occasional rumours that BKG could be a take-over target, 'Chinese investors' and so on. These pop up every year or so, but nothing yet has come of it. If we decided to sell some/all our holding now, having achieved what we want, how much does it matter the later price 'we might have got'? IME you have your 'if only' thoughts, but it is what it is.

I was watching the price yesterday wondering whether we'd see RNSs re: shorts covering issued this morning. I haven't seen any yet, but man they've got to be hurting!

[this_is_me] 20/4/2017 07:18

It looks like Tony Pidgley sold those shares too soon and remaining shorters, having made a loss, were buying back more than Tony Pidgley sold.

[fenners66] 19/4/2017 12:54

So can we forgive the director share sale now?