Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[r ball] 13/6/2017 20:14

Headwinds: Westminster councilAnnouncement today, brexit, interest rates. Time to reduce exposure? Ps: I've held since 2010...

[zho] 13/6/2017 07:37

Encouraging interims from Crest Nicholson this morning. Average selling price up 12%.

[1gw] 10/6/2017 10:59

jrphoenixw2 - the BKG site shows the prelims are due on 21st June - a week on Wednesday.

So I think the "closed period" is 60 days ahead of those results and we would be well within it now. Their last buyback was on 6th April and I think normally companies have to make special arrangements and issue an RNS to say they intend to continue a buyback through the closed period, if that's what they want to do.

So it may be that they can't buy back any shares until 21st June, even if the share price falls below what they regard as the appropriate trigger point. But if the outlook hasn't deteriorated markedly since 6th April then I think I would expect them to re-commence buybacks on 21st June if the share price is below about £31 at that time.

But a level around £31 may still act as resistance to the downside in the meantime if enough traders & investors believe that BKG will be in the market at up to about that level later in the month.

[jrphoenixw2] 09/6/2017 18:48

Closing Volume: Vol/Avg 1.26M/499,043
[2.5* - Wow!]

[jrphoenixw2] 09/6/2017 15:37

[No paywall]

Article gives quoted opinions from five overseas buying agents of London property.

[jrphoenixw2] 09/6/2017 15:09

Agree with you 1gw. They might do some buying into the close... we'll see. On the other hand if the market is expecting it, they might wait for the market to later show disappointment at the absence of buy-backs. Cat+mouse. What I believe I saw this morning [10.10am] in the price chart with volume candles was something like a +51k buy moving the price just +0.1p [very large volume in the context of other 2 minute candles, looked like a +50k buy + background odd-lots] . Suggests to me there is a mass of sell orders above. If so better wait until they're eroded/cancelled before more buy-backs...[?] BKGs brokers get to see the whole order book above, so know when to pounce.

I've got the 2Q results penciled in as 27-Jul, so quite a while off. Don't know if there is a window of time around them when buy-backs are disallowed.

Vol at 3.12pm vs 30 day average vol is 827,787.00/499,043.00

[1gw] 09/6/2017 13:54

That's me in for a fourth chunk at 3101p.

I think we're very close to "Pidgley Put" territory here and I wouldn't be surprised to see a buyback rns tomorrow (if it's not prevented because of the proximity of results). So that feels like it ought to limit the downside.

Then I believe we've probably got "lower for longer" interest rates on the cards (yet again) and perhaps a better chance of a softer brexit.

Against that, it seems likely the political uncertainty will persist for some time and it's certainly not obvious to me from the chart why the fall should stop at exactly this point.

[fenners66] 09/6/2017 11:11

On your train do you see the old Royal Mail site at 9 Elms?
I had to look it up on google its so near the new developments you talk about.

Royal Mail just sold about a third of the site for £100m !

No one interested in property then?

[jrphoenixw2] 09/6/2017 10:53

This is why p'ing our div up a wall trying to squeeze out remaining shorts earlier this week would have been just that.

[dbensimon] 09/6/2017 10:52

Couldn't agree more.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 09/6/2017 10:52

Well put Daniel ... not lot of justification for Sterling weakness either, esp as softer Brexit might be on cards so soon as Theresa May announces her Government, good chance sector rotation back to over sold domestic cyclicals like home builders

[danieldruff2] 09/6/2017 10:42

Yup, thought there would be one this morning and went for this. Govt essentially has same majority as yesterday, but with some NI support - not enough to justify 5% fall in housebuilders!

[dbensimon] 09/6/2017 10:40

Buying opportunities or what!!!

[jrphoenixw2] 09/6/2017 10:16

The answer is the same as when you asked this same question last Dec.
Post 2527, you can go back and read the replies then. HTH

[montyhedge] 09/6/2017 09:41

On a train into Waterloo,the apartments being built and empty new apartments is incredible. How can the London house builders flog all these.

[2350220] 09/6/2017 09:35

I've bought back in my Spread Bet at just £3/pt.
The fall does seem OTT.
John

[dbensimon] 09/6/2017 08:34

Didn't see this coming!!!

[catswhiskas] 07/6/2017 07:00

Buy sub 30 more chance of a good profit from that level cant see this getting much further north of 33 until after the summer .

[garycook] 07/6/2017 06:52

Bargain buy

While the prospects for the UK property sector have deteriorated, the buying opportunity for long-term investors may have improved. For example, Berkeley Group (LSE: BKG) continues to trade on a low valuation with a relatively high yield. Certainly, the prospects for the prime property market have worsened in recent months. The potential exodus of financial professionals and the uncertainty brought about by Brexit may lead to lower demand for prime property, but weaker sterling could help to offset this somewhat by encouraging foreign buyers to invest.

With Berkeley now trading on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.3, it appears to offer a wide margin of safety. Its dividend yield stands at over 6%, and yet is covered more than twice by profit. This suggests its future dividend payments are highly affordable and could provide an inflation-beating income stream for the company’s investors over a sustained period.

Although UK house prices may fall and this may lead to some share price volatility in the near term, Berkeley appears to offer a mix of value and income potential for the long run. As such, even after a 12% rise since the start of the year, its share price could move higher.

[garycook] 07/6/2017 06:29

Probably,but for how long if a Tory victory.It could be time to buy,from Friday morning !!!

[micos] 07/6/2017 06:11

Have the shorters returned?