Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[1gw] 17/8/2017 11:10

They need to get to 90th in the FTSE ranking to get automatic entry don't they? I use the UK Stock Challenge spreadsheet as a guide - go to the "FTSE Ranking" tab. As of 28th July, BKG was some way off 90th place, but looking at today's market caps I think they're neck and neck with Micro Focus which was in 90th position on 28th July. Haven't checked how the stocks in between have moved though.



It could be that it's close enough now that some FTSE100 index funds are buying it (and maybe some FTSE250 funds are selling it) in case it does make it by the cut-off date. So maybe a net boost from this activity.

[jrphoenixw2] 17/8/2017 09:45

£42!? WTH was paying that? Perhaps someone put in a buy at MKT order and there was no offer-side below £42 :) Maybe I should put a GTC sell-order in around there to catch any future dopey early-birds, and let them peck away at it.

- Earlier this morning we were c£50mill behind Smith-DS at 2nd/1st at the top of the FTSE-250. That's now shrunk to £18mill.

[/136mm shares in issue, if SMithDS stands still, it just needs another +13p to pass it and lead the FTSE-250. Of little consequence in itself I know...]

[garycook] 17/8/2017 08:33

At 8am BKG were showing £42 on the pre-market Auction.Thinking of selling,but what can you buy in its place ?

[jrphoenixw2] 17/8/2017 08:24

I was wondering what they were going to do re: the buy-back programme. Could they ever announce it's over, and what impact might that have on the SP? Perhaps it would give the shorts a clearer line in the sand to work against?
Maybe announcing it's continuation, even if they don't intend to use it, is the only thing they could do? They can't broadcast their buy-back range, the uncertainty has a value itself [vs shorts].
I don't know, and would be interested in others' thoughts. Are they targeting a specific share price, some other derived value metric, re-promotion? But perhaps on this too, the uncertainty has it's own value.

[jrphoenixw2] 17/8/2017 08:01

Opened [first print] 3708 +14p
...and pushing on... 3716, making a new 52wk high

-and FWIW/in passing, Ex-divs are due to take 9.65pts off the FTSE-100 open this morning...

[jrphoenixw2] 17/8/2017 07:51

@1GW - yep I edited/added that qualifier into my recap^, interesting change eh? I hope Odey etc are feeling that warm glow of the vomit rising this morning ;)
Cheers Gary. A friend of mine also holds them and every few weeks he has the time/patience to forensically follow all the RNSs re: funds paid out in buy-backs, so the foundations of my earlier estimate were built on his work. [Bless him :)].
Going to be veeery interesting to see where they open this morning. A/o last night they were still in 2nd spot in the FTSE-250, well positioned for promotion.
As is, today, I suspect promotion is on the cards. And if so perhaps the Board will get their 'fair value' without spending more of our next div?

[this_is_me] 17/8/2017 07:42

It looks like some shareholders have complained about buy backs at current levels. I do not see any advantage in share buy backs at the current share price.

[garycook] 17/8/2017 07:36

JRP, Spot on with your forecast.Well done.Do you work for BKG Ha Ha Ha.FTSE 100 here we come !

[1gw] 17/8/2017 07:32

Good estimate on the divi jrp. Note the mission creep in the last sentence of the rns: "not only when the shares are materially undervalued".

[jrphoenixw2] 17/8/2017 07:26

Next div is a net 51.76p
X/d 24/8/17
R/d 25/8/17
P/d 15/9/17
135,963,431 shares [currently eligible for the div]
The buy-back programme remains in place, to be used as currently ie. when the Board deem to share price to be 'materially undervalued', BUT additionally when they consider that buy-backs are in the shareholder's 'best interests'. Full declaration below:
-----------------------------------------
'DIVIDEND DECLARATION
The Directors of the Company are pleased to announce that an interim dividend of 51.76p per share will be paid on 15 September 2017 to shareholders on the Company's register of members at close of business on 25 August 2017. The ex-dividend date is 24 August 2017.
The Company has set out to return £277,690,956 per annum under the Company's Shareholder Returns Programme. This amount is to be increased by £2 per share for any new share issued or re-issued from Treasury since 2 December 2016. Distributions include share buy-backs undertaken since 2 December 2016 as well as dividends paid in the 12 months ending 30 September each year.
The table below sets out the current position for the 12 month period ending on 30 September 2017.
Dividend paid 24 March 2017 £117,721,350
Dividend to be paid 15 September 2017 £70,374,672
Share buy-backs undertaken since 2 December 2016 £89,673,201
[Total sum] £277,769,223
The target under the Shareholder Returns Programme for the 12 months to 30 September 2017 is £277,700,278, with 135,963,431 shares currently eligible to receive a dividend. Any surplus returns are rolled forward to future periods.

The Directors also announce that the next £138,850,139 shareholder return will be provided by 31 March 2018 through a combination of dividends and share buy-backs. This amount will be increased appropriately in the event that any new shares are issued either from treasury or as newly listed shares. The amount to be paid as a dividend will be announced in February 2018, taking account of any share buy-backs made in the intervening period. Share buy-backs will be undertaken to the extent the Board believes these are in the best interests of all shareholders and not only when the shares are materially under-valued.'

[jrphoenixw2] 16/8/2017 10:02

Quarterly review, effective Sep-2017
a) Mkt Capn data cut-off: 29-Aug
b) Notice of rebalance issued: 30-Aug (post-close)
c) Rebalance date: 18-Sep

And FWIW the final one this year, Dec-2017
a) 28-Nov
b) 29-Nov
c) 18-Dec

[jrphoenixw2] 15/8/2017 17:03

It managed to briefly shake off it's summer lull, and post above average 30-day volume, 430k vs 416k. +44p +1.21% on the back of [some] volume.

[jrphoenixw2] 15/8/2017 16:47

Last note I made [13-Aug] on the net div suggests it'll be around 51.7p [E+EO]. Though that does not allow for the smaller pool of in-issue shares eligible to receive the div.

[this_is_me] 15/8/2017 16:11

Yes the dividend is going to be a lot less than 100p due to the buy backs so any hit to the share price when it goes ex div. is going to be muted.

My two construction firms, BKG NTBR, are by far my largest holdings, due to their huge price gains. I see no need to sell any shares in either given that both are still on low ratings.

[bluemango] 15/8/2017 08:40

Dividend announcement this Thurs 17th.

[1gw] 14/8/2017 19:12

Yes, but at some point they may push their luck too far. It looked like they were struggling on Thursday to keep the price up, despite ramping up the volume they were prepared to buy.

If they are confident that the shares are undervalued by the market and that this will become apparent as they produce trading statements and results, then that's OK (IMO), but as soon as they start moving towards just trying to increase earnings per share or worse trying to get it above a nominal share price target they have in mind, then they are vulnerable to someone trying to take them on.

Their original buyback announcement read as though the buyback was going to be value-focused, buying back when the share price materially undervalued the company (in their view). I have sold out because I fear it may have moved beyond this.

They may well share an update on the thinking behind their buyback activity when they announce the dividend later this week.

[jrphoenixw2] 14/8/2017 16:09

So you could make an argument that August is one of the better months to be buying, since the volume is relatively so low, the buy-backs have more of an impact, more bang for the buck, esp. if promotion is a secondary possibility...

[jrphoenixw2] 14/8/2017 12:21

I'd imagine that when it opens X/D on 24-Aug, that any subsequent buy-backs would be coming off the next div (ie Spring 2018). I can't see how it could be otherwise, ie trading Ex-d an unknown dividend.
But, then again... I see BKG are supposedly announcing the sum of the next div [net of buy-backs] and issuing their annual report on Thursday 17-Aug. So perhaps Wednesday will be the cut-off for buy-backs coming off the div payable in September. We'll find out soon enough... Hopefully we'll get an update on their thinking re: the buy-back strategy as well.

Meanwhile, another RNS:
14 August 2017. The Company announces that on 11 August 2017 it purchased 129,605 of its ordinary shares...
Date of transaction: 11 August 2017
Number of Shares purchased: 129,605
Highest price paid per Share: 3615p
Lowest price paid per Share: 3541p
Volume weighted average price paid per Share: 3588.5444p


To date 3625p seems to be the highest paid [9-Aug]. > 3614p on 10-Aug, 3615p on 11-Aug.

[garycook] 14/8/2017 09:48

Nevermind a profit is a profit !

[fenners66] 14/8/2017 09:28

Also looks as if I sold here a few days too early!

[fenners66] 14/8/2017 09:27

Thanks gents - I did not know about the withholding tax issue.

[1gw] 14/8/2017 08:59

Buyback buying big again on Friday I see. Perhaps I was a little premature in selling out. Looks like they're quite happy to buy back up to and a bit above £36.

Perhaps the dividend due to be announced later this week is now fixed and they're buying back now out of distribution funds earmarked for the following distribution? Is it possible that the step up in amount spent on 11th August reflects expectations of a bigger amount available for distribution next time?

[jrphoenixw2] 12/8/2017 11:21

re: 3038^
I don't expect to see a straight £1 lopped off on the next X/D 24-Aug.
Last div 85.24p X/D 2-Mar. Share px on the day -81p. [I'm not suggesting any kind of correlation, just saying, FWIW].
My head is too frazzled after a 3hr flight that turned into 12hr one, what with getting home at 5am...ugh. But...
- A material element of our div spent on buy-backs 'comes back indirectly' via the reduced net div being spread over a smaller number of outstanding div-bearing shares in issue.
- If the £1 (-net of buy-backs) div impacted the share price on the X/D by £1, then - my brain is too shagged - but I expect there'd be some clever S/T trading play around the X/D with the div entitlement. IDK

Interesting to see the BBs moving into a higher price range at end of the week:
10-Aug +44k@Average 3617.5
11-Aug +180kAverage 3585.75

[Previous to that, per my records, 25-Jul +40k@Average 3363.3p]

- Agreed, RDSB is the one to buy for Brits. You have the added fiddle of the £/$ rate on the Record Date, but that's nothing compared to witholding tax as mentioned^ on RDSA.