Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[1gw] 06/6/2017 12:20

Must be getting fairly close to Pidgley Put territory again. They were in the market for the buyback at 3100p on 6th April.

[1gw] 06/6/2017 11:46

Declared shorts.

Odey reduced significantly on 2nd June, from 0.97% short to 0.71% short.

[bigt20] 02/6/2017 08:43

blunderbuss2 Jun '17 - 04:55 - 2911 of 2913

--> It really is scary how council tax may increase under Labour.

[red5] 01/6/2017 22:04

Why has this gone down so far.

[dbensimon] 01/6/2017 13:51

Bkg lost p200 in the last 8 days

[dbensimon] 31/5/2017 09:25

Many thanks

[jrphoenixw2] 31/5/2017 07:47

The reshuffle methodology explained on a single page at ftse.com I'm posting it as we might be having this discussion again in 3 months time.


The FTSE All-Share ranking:

[The spreadsheet updates, ie today it shows the post-close prices for last night that will be used in this reshuffle]

By the looks of it G4S and Segro go up, and Hikma and Intu go down. And although BKG is tantalisingly at 100th position with MktCap = 4487.9, Royal Mail at 103rd = 4382.0 isn't sufficiently smaller to get demoted out of the FTSE-100. I suspect this 'buffer zone' exists to stop companies being ping-ponged up and down due to say one good or bad day on the price.

The actual changes will be based on last nights valuations, and announced after the market close this evening. The changes will occur post-close on Friday 16th June, ie to take effect for the open on Monday 19th.

[jrphoenixw2] 30/5/2017 20:30

Surprising how opaque it is eh? ...

[typo56] 30/5/2017 20:05

After market close tomorrow. I don't think BKG made it either.

[jrphoenixw2] 30/5/2017 18:56

According to Forbes earlier linked article tomorrow morning.

I'm not holding my breath though, I think BKG missed out....

[dbensimon] 30/5/2017 17:57

When we shall find out if they get promoted to the ftse 100?

[typo56] 30/5/2017 16:20

For FTSE ranking, shares in issue is defined as the number of shares outstanding excluding shares held in treasury and unissued shares. Therefore, buy-backs reduce the number of shares in issue when deriving market cap.

All things being equal, buy-backs don't increase the value of a company and therefore don't increase the market cap, but (hopefully) do increase the share price for the investors.

[jrphoenixw2] 30/5/2017 15:11

... in that Market Capn overall isn't impacted as shares bought back are held 'in Treasury'? I'd agree with that. But if Market Capn is shares in issue*px then a higher price = a higher capn (surely?). Isn't the px the primary driver of who the candidates are for the reshuffles?
Interesting point about changes to shares in issue etc., that suggests 'shares in issue' = shares trading freely available in the market, ie excl those in Treasury. Anyway, as you see my knowledge in this regard is thin in this area...

I had this vision of BKGs Treasury dept hitting the bid hard into the close. Hey maybe even hitting the offer of a rival for promotion (hehehe). Promotion would trigger buying by big-board index funds etc. and heightened profile. Money well spent, a virtuous circle? I haven't gone back to recheck the mandate re: use of buy-backs but perhaps they simply don't have such latitude. And with 1.5hrs left to go and volume still below average, there's no sign of buy-backs having taken place so far.

[typo56] 30/5/2017 14:01

Now if BKG want to unleash a blast of buy-backs this afternoon I'm not going to complain!

Buy-backs may help to increase the share price, but not necessarily the market cap, which is what FTSE is based on. That said, FTSE don't take account between reviews of changes to shares in issue of less than 10%, so it might work!

[jrphoenixw2] 30/5/2017 12:46

Poor volume so far, 200k at 12.15pm [half-way through the session] vs 550k average full-day vol over the past 30 days. So 200/225 = 88% of recent half-day volume. Ie no hint of any strategic buying-back so far. We have a few more hours to hope though... :)

[jrphoenixw2] 30/5/2017 09:11

I'd forgotten about that site Typo, that is a useful resource.
I think the terminology of how the reshuffle works can be a bit confusing. I was just reading a Forbes article (on-linked from Yahoo) that says valuations are per Market Capn on the close tonight. Those being reshuffled will be announced tomorrow. Changes will be post-close on 16th June with effect for the open on Monday 19th.

As things stand this morning we appear [E+EO] to be in one position behind the promotion zone. Now if BKG want to unleash a blast of buy-backs this afternoon I'm not going to complain!

@RBall - Not surprised. Election/BREXIT/stamp-duty/terrorism/Trump uncertainty = not the kind of climate that nurtures confidence and risk-taking incl reaching boldly to get up the property ladder.

[typo56] 30/5/2017 08:23

I think this may be more useful for FTSE index predictions, as it marks the entry and exit levels. Note June changes will be based on market caps at close today.

[r ball] 30/5/2017 08:11

Ft article at weekend about house prices stalling!

[jungle jim] 28/5/2017 20:57

Capitalise just the t's, so hTTp will defeat it.

[jrphoenixw2] 16/5/2017 08:26

Woof, someone is buying in size! Just touched x56p

ps... ah I see volume is painfully thin, soooo nothing up, just a lack of a sell side perhaps

[jrphoenixw2] 16/5/2017 07:53

@RBall
I keep an eye on the research from Savills, it seems thorough to me.
Have a dig around in their research. They have written at length about Crossrail over the years and what it's impacts are expected to be. Searching on their site under 'crossrail' brought up this report on Ealing which considers the Crossrail impact www.savills.co.uk/research_articles/141280/204275-0

Have a skim through that, it might contain on-links to Crossrail specific reports. Either way, if you happen to find anything recent and from a reliable source wld you be so kind to post it back here? Crossrail will impact me too, suddenly [for example] my home will be within a quick and simple commute of Canary Wharf whereas previously it would have been... don't know, but certainly over an hour.