Berkeley Share Discussion Threads

[r ball] 22/3/2018 08:42

Focus on value? 5% implied yield.

[r ball] 20/3/2018 08:26

Whinging a bit

[warranty] 19/3/2018 09:56

Like you t-I-m I sold out when the price spiked at £42 as I had a good profit and could only see the share price moving down from there. I'm anticipating it going lower still as I think the market is toppy. The additional stamp duty on London, BTL and second homes must be putting people off and thus reducing the governments tax take so you would have to think at some point it will be addressed?

[this_is_me] 16/3/2018 12:51

The government's attack on buy to let will have the effect of reducing the number of properties available on the rental market and thus push the cost of renting much higher. If those with buy to let properties see no prospect of further capital gains in the foreseeable future that will also see selling out from the sector and the money reinvested elsewhere.

Share buy backs at the current share price make no sense when the prospects are not great and the share price is likely to fall over the short/medium term. Share buybacks make sense only when the share price is stupidly low.

I may have sold out a little early but I am not tempted to buy back in at present. The old saying that profit warnings come in threes has some validity.

[sogoesit] 16/3/2018 12:40

The housing market can behave strangely (perversely?) at times.
I remember in the mid-90's, because potential sellers' expectations were high, there was no "stock" put up for sale. Or, perhaps as currently in the London market, owners/investors have made insufficient gains to cover their (government imposed) costs and therefore are not releasing their stock.
Most investment London property is safe-asset/capital-gain focused as witnessed by the paltry yields on offer for BtL.

Imposition of government taxes can work two ways; one way is that the increased imposed costs (taxes) actually increase prices in the medium term as sellers who wish to make a profit hold-off marketing until price expectations meet their profit expectations. This will also impact the principal residence market imv even tho it is not taxed.

The law of unintended consequences where politicians focus on outcomes without factoring in the (downside) consequences.

[zho] 16/3/2018 11:34

Discussion and broker comment at

[fenners66] 16/3/2018 09:06

If you believe the policy is aimed at reducing the price of housing to make it more affordable - or at least reigning in the rise of house prices - then it seems to me that Berkeley are confirming that it is reducing demand.

Usually a reduction in demand will lead to a fall in price - yeah they can say it will also reduce production and that will work in the opposite direction - but house prices are more about the existing stock than new houses and if there is a lower demand there will still be sellers ; often if there is a perception that prices may fall there become even more sellers so it becomes self fulfilling.

Whether they should try to intervene is another matter.

But they have intervened on the demand side with help to buy and by keeping interest rates at such lows.

[asturius101] 16/3/2018 08:57

Shows how incompetent Gov and their policies are, esp regarding BTL.

[jimbox1] 16/3/2018 08:22

The buybacks support the directors' personal divestitures and retirement plans.

[fenners66] 16/3/2018 08:10

pj fozzie - I am absolutely with you on share buy backs and this shows that all the shares bought over the last few months can do absolutely nothing for today's share price.

Whereas the promise of a higher future yield I believe would.

[fenners66] 16/3/2018 08:06

And it opened down by more than 3%........

[fenners66] 16/3/2018 07:59

I took this line as pertinent


"with GBP1.5 billion pre-tax profit to be delivered in the two years ending 30 April 2019, weighted approximately 60% towards the current financial year."

So £900m this year
£600m next year

Drop of £300m ........

So a profit warning then.....

[sogoesit] 16/3/2018 07:16

Obviously government know better how to manage the housing market (not)!!
This from the Statement:
"Since its half year, Berkeley has continued to trade in line with its business plan requirements, with sales prices achieved remaining above business plan levels. The market conditions in London and the South East are unchanged from the first half with home movers and downsizers continuing to be constrained by high transaction costs, the 4.5x income multiple limit on mortgage borrowing and prevailing economic uncertainty. In addition, domestic buy-to-let investors, who buy early in the cycle and provide security of cash flow to enable complex, capital intensive developments to be brought forward, are further impacted by additional transaction costs and the removal of interest deductibility. These factors, together with the changing planning environment and the time and complexity of getting on site following planning approval, mean that Berkeley is currently unable to increase production beyond the business plan levels.“

Government is a farce!

[pj fozzie] 22/2/2018 17:45

I just wish they'd stop throwing the money away on buy backs - I'd so much rather have the cash. When the share price was below £30, I had some sympathy to the idea of buybacks (not much mind) - but at the current levels it just doesn't make sense to me - the shares do not look cheap.

Cheers,
PJ

[boyndie] 22/2/2018 17:25

Was expecting a bit more than 56.75p, anyway that's it.

[dr_smith] 22/2/2018 17:03

Email just in:
DIVIDEND DECLARATION

The Directors of the Company are pleased to announce that an interim dividend of 56.75 pence per share will be paid on 23 March 2018 to shareholders on the Company's register of members at close of business on 2 March 2018. The ex-dividend date is 1 March 2018.

[eithin] 22/2/2018 16:42

Maybe tomorrow, maybe no divi being paid.!!!!!! ?????

[boyndie] 22/2/2018 09:29

Says Dividend amount to be announced today. Nought yet.

[dr_smith] 22/2/2018 08:31

Investor relations here:

..but doesn't answer your question....yet.

[eithin] 22/2/2018 08:16

Dividend amount announcement today ??
"paid as a dividend will be announced on 22 February 2018 and payable on 23 March 2018"

[corlis] 15/2/2018 08:46

Just a matter of 2hrs setting up correctly then away she goes north

[r ball] 15/2/2018 07:37

Buying restarted....must reckon its cheap.