Belluscura Share Discussion Threads

[energyi] 25/7/2002 14:37

THURSDAY: SOX DIVES to Fresh Lows!

(1)
I think that the low opening is excellent, we should have a thrust up toward 11:30/45 then a retrenchment till about 1:30/2:00 and a EOD run, I wonder what Anon Fractals have for today's pattern.
: Zeev

(2)
Bad entry into the Q, withdrew for reentry, at minor losses, BRCD at $19.10 (-$.30), BRCM at $18.78 (-$75), QLGC at $40 flat ($-.50), ELX at $23.30 (flat) and MERQ at $24.50 (-$.50)
: Zeev
COMMENT: The Quintet are looking rather sick, as SOX has gone
weak against the stronger Dow

(3) 11:05:56 AM
I took my lumps on the Q, but am just reentering them here at discounts: BRCD at $18.91, BRCM at $17.93, QLGC at $39.30, ELX at $22.61 and MERQ at $24.02. Also in MU at $19.77.
: Zeev

(4)
Posted by: FinnTroll :7/25/2002 11:16:45 AM / Post #of 8165
I agree. Semis not participating here. I'm dumping them on the next bounce and moving to bios, blue chips.
: FinnTroll

(5) SOX makes NEW LOW at 320. : 11:25am

(6)
Posted by: jpar :7/25/2002 11:21:10 AM ? Post #of 8170
If you remember last september,the sox broke its low even after the dow held.I think the same thing is happening here.
Then the nice rally.
: jpar

(7)
Posted by: ajtj99 / Date:7/25/2002 11:41:05 AM / Post #of 8185
Speaking of market action, NDX breached the 50% re-trace level and the SOXX made new lows. That is telling me the re-test is on. Uptrend line from yesterday breached at NDX 920, 3-white soldiers on the 30-minute wiped out. 60-minute chart turned over. Lots of stuff saying the re-test has started and the HOD yesterday was it for this particular bounce.
: ajt

(8)Posted by: Rayman/ Date:7/25/2002 11:34:41 AM / Post #of 8186
Zeev, I am playing the semis for a bounce here, but not for a long term(means three days), from what you see, is the SOX doomed, or does it have any guts left?
I have grave doubt about the market rally despite the fact that I am long here. Without the SOX, I can hardly see any sustainable rally.
The question bogs down to "Will the NAZ drag SOX up, or the SOX drags NAZ down"? Your insight please.
: Rayman

(9)
I think that the SOX will revive and with vengeance, KLAC is a big chunk of the SOX and it can move 4 up just as easily as it can move $4 down.
: Zeev

(10)
About ten minutes ago I updated my last post, the cross of $35 was my out, I see it dropped another buck in the last ten minutes, so I Jumped back in here at $33.85, it promptly dropped another half a buck, c'est la vie. CCMP is extremely volatile and in the past such entries have yielded multi buckers for me, so I'll be patient here. KLAC is holding a little better, maybe the onslaught is over.
: Zeev

(11) 1:31:43 PM / Post #of 8276
I am pretty sure this area is near the bottom, and while I may modify may daily tactic a little, I will be between 30% cash and no cash (right now very close to the latter and hurting on some of the Q
: Zeev

[energyi] 25/7/2002 11:36

Posted by: augieboo: Date:7/24/2002 7:28:03 PM / Post #of 7961

MM, I've been looking at charts, especially the NASI and NYSI. ...Well, the comparison work I spent three fruitless hours on involved comparing where the COMP turns to where the NASI turns, and where the SPX turns to where the NYSI turns.
...
I can't swear to this, because I had to eyeball where my vertical lines were placed, but it really looked as though the indicator makes a fairly regular habit of turning on the day of the successful retest of the low. Think about where the NASI and NYSI will be two to five days from now at the current rates of descent!

If I am correct about all this -- always a big IF -- then we should see one to four days of up and or sideways, then a retest combined with the NASI & NYSI cratering, then a good rally.

[energyi] 25/7/2002 11:07

(1)
The probability of a monster rally to the 1700/1800 has increased, but I am not ready yet to declare that as a target (the target will be probably 1757 and 1834), right now I am still just in the 1526/55 range. I need few additional things to happen for the ultra bullish case.

Zeev

(2)
The odd are growing in favor of the "above 1700" scenario", I'll need few things in the next few days, another GPT would be nice and a retrenchment that does not give back more than 50% of the run today. I think that if a delay declaration of 1700 plus, no one gets hurt if we actually get there. What I do see is some minor problems getting over the 1325/35 area, the 1375 and then the major problem in the 1403/25 area. We should be able to handle all these levels by August 13th (and relapse some from the 1403/25 area).

Zeev

(3)
The sox was up 4.21% , less than the Naz and Dow, but not by much, just delayed reaction, apart of that, the initial thrust would probably come from the BTK which was beaten down much more harshly (and will probably be beaten down hard still in a future decline). I think that right now, we have put in place enough negative sentiment indicators and the flip from GNT to GPT on the NYSE adds cream to the top.

Zeev

(4)
Hank, forget about the days companies were valued at 60 time earnings and whatever times non earnings, these days are not coming back soon, and high PE are going to be accorded only companies that present consistent QOQ growth both in the top line and the bottom line, while FSTW did not do bad, the top line receded QOQ, if they start growing again, we may talk about $21 first, $60, well in few years once there is visibility that they can earn $6/share few years down the road.

Zeev

[nirvs] 25/7/2002 09:53

Agreed. I will start to take profits at 4000, but also try for 4100.

Also bought BP at 410, GSK 1010.

[energyi] 25/7/2002 09:43

Hmmm. I did the same.
FTSE has lagged the dow. My old calculation was:

Dow x 55%= FTSE
8200 x55%= 4510. At 3900, there's a long way to go!
yesterday:
7500 x55%= 4125
+700 x55%= +385pts ...assuming new balance?:
FTSE Low: 3615
Increase ? 385
Target..: 4000

[nirvs] 25/7/2002 07:25

Yes very profitable so far ;>) Went long on the Sep FTSE yesterday at 3623 around 3:30

[energyi] 25/7/2002 07:13

SOX was a laggard yesterday (with most of Zeev's Quintet),
but the fundamentals for an upturn in semiconductors look good
and this sector is likely to catch fire if the Rally continues.

Nirvs, the Low came very close to the target Low you identified.
I hope your trading was very profitable.

[nirvs] 25/7/2002 05:59

Energyi--once again, thanks for posting these great insights. Long QLGC, BRCD, BRCM, MERQ

[energyi] 24/7/2002 13:25

WEDNESDAY...
ZEEV WORRIED:
Shane, these two are "day traders" due to their volatlity (I have great regard for the companies as well, BRCM is spending the most on R&D as percentage of sale than any chip company I follow). That said, the market are not rational, and I am stepping aside here on the Q, just got out of QLGC at $37.69 (loss of $2.69)and BRCD at $18.72 ((-$1.13)and BRCM at $19.40(-$.84). Still waiting for MERQ and ELX (tough to trade that one in premarket since it moved to the NYSE).
: Zeev

FED READY: ? :
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--A weak banking sector could affect Federal Reserve monetary policy, said Stan Jonas, managing director at Fimat USA.
"A weak banking sector becomes a political problem for the Fed," Jonas said in a CNBC interview Tuesday.
Jonas said weak banks would not be able to implement monetary policy and may encourage the Fed to ease interest rates.
The banking sector was hit in the stock market Tuesday amid implications that J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Citigroup Inc. (C) helped mislead investors about the true financial state of Enron Corp. (ENRNQ).
-By Andrew Gelfand, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2007

Is the catalyst to end this decline on the horizon?

Possible Scenario / or just wishful thinking?:


9 :42 ET: Dow -152, TICKS: -1277
9 :53 ET: Dow - 58, TICKS: - 309
11:23 ET: Dow +68, TICKS: + 338

ZEEV BACK IN (a while ago):
Posted by: Zeev Hed :7/24/2002 11:15:13 AM / Post #of 7558

In edit commited to the Q, only BRCD at a discount, $18.40, BRCM at $19.50, QLGC at $38.50, ELX at $22.13 and MERQ at $23.75 (a premium of a buck to my panic sale in premarket, ouch...) Just took the $1.35 discount on INTU back in at $41.15 (second serving, I still have some from $43.92 ouch).
: Zeev

[deltablues] 24/7/2002 08:51

??? the Nasdaq was pushing 1400 in Feb 1997.

There was a high at 1250 in May/June 1996 and a trough of 1200 in April/May 1997. The Nasdaq closed at 1229 last night, so it's gone through the 1250 support and the next one is at 1200.

It's possible for indicators to be oversold for a long period of time in a bear market, just as they were overbought for long periods of time in the bull market.

[energyi] 24/7/2002 06:23

From LG on the Zeev Thread:

Today's decline found support in the area of the 1997 Feb and March highs. Both my sht/med and med/lng oscillators are in extreme oversold ranges. Ranges only seen at the 1987 correction low, the 1998 correction low, the April and Sept 2001 lows. My DirMov indicator is clearly in extreme oversold territory while my stochastic is pegged in oversold territory as well. The volume over the last few days indicates accumulation in progress. This chart is signaling a NYA low is very close. We may have seen it today.

HIS CHARTS:


NOTE:
There is a Full Moon today, which is often the sign of a market turn

[energyi] 23/7/2002 14:27

TUESDAY
(1)
Posted by: michalel97123 / 7/23/2002 10:22:27 AM / Post #of 6720
didnt zeev say something about 10:30 rally? or am i remembering wrong?

At 10:25 EST: Dow: 7753 Ticks: -748 (having been to about -1100)

(2)
Posted by: slopik / 10:39:44 AM / Post #of 6739

I believe a low TRIN like that with a negatice tick we've been showing is bullish
Interesting action on NYSE tic / trin as well. While tic pretilly steadily deteriorated over course of morning (reaching a GNT of 1265 around 10:30), trin improved all morning actually going
: Pierre

(3)
Nice pop in GNSS today. Traded as high as $8.35. Bought on Friday at $7.50.
Sold half my position at $8.23- just in case.

(4)
Interesting. Market dropped back to 7800-ish.
Above LOD, but TICK as high as -1067

(5)
SOX seems to be lagging on thsi latest rally. BRCM, GNSS below highs.

(6)
Posted by: Patrick Bateman / 11:40:48 AM / Post #of 6800
The one troubling thing here (as a current bull) is the Equity P/C ratio is quite bearish
: Pat Bateman

(7)
Another sell-off and GNT (Grand Negative Ticks):
To underr 7780 and TICKs of -1250. Wow!
VIX got to 49.92, a gnat's eyelash from 50.

(6) 1:00 pm ET and LATER:
Here we go, they're sending the drills down yet again!
TICKs hit -1200. Dow to UNCH. VIX at 49.86.
Maybe one more good clean-out needed?
So for this drop has a higher Low. Do we need 7750 or lower?
1:05 This it?
TICKS got to -1480!, Dow to 7767. VIX: 50.32!
1:18 VIX has exceeded 51!
1:28 And down again, after a small rally. Dow: 7752. Tick: -1284
.... Banks way down! JPM:420.20 -17.8% / C: $26.30 -17.9%
1:38 Hmmm... now we are getting a low (7750) with big Negative TICKs.
.... What does that mean? Another breakdown?
1:42 VIX: 51.43, Dow: 7732, TICK: -1000-ish
.... Note: TICK has been near zero since 12noon, 1hr. 45mins
.... 20 period MA on TICKs / 5min Chart is below -750!
1:47 Back down again: Dow: 7722
1:50 Dow: 7711, 7706=TICK:-1421 20ma/5min:-866
1:53 Dow: 7706, 7685=TICK:-1495: double bottom in TICK?

1:59 Here comes the rally??

RALLY to 7845.... (= 21ma on 60min)

(1)
Posted by: Zeev Hed/ Date:7/23/2002 2:45:11 PM / Post #of 6983
I agree, that is one reason I removed most of my stops, I don't know where this parabolic decline will end, but the bounce will be just as powerful IMTO. The MM's are fishing for stops, so I aint giving them mine.
: Zeev

[energyi] 22/7/2002 16:58

Took out 7800 in the upmove. Could be "for real" this time!

[energyi] 22/7/2002 16:33

From Ed Downs, beginning to look prophetic:
The 60 Minute Chart implies that there could be more downside left in this index. You can see the large consolidation around 8,500, from which we can calculate an approximate target. Take the difference between the center of the consolidation at 8,540 and the recent prior high at 9,400. Then, project the difference (860) down from the center of the consolidation to get 7,680 (9,400 - 8,540 = 860, 8,540 - 860 = 7,680).
LINK:

[energyi] 22/7/2002 14:02

SOX BEHAVIOR / TICKS / VIX... Monday Diary
Different today: Weaker than Dow.
The Dow is holding about half of its gain, SOX has lost 90%.
Some negative commentary at a Semi Conference today (?)

Later:
SOX trading below Friday's Low. Near 355, down about 10pts.
Support is about 345 (July Lows?)

Still Later:
TICKs hit almost -1000 just before 11am EST, but Dow stayed
above Low, while NDX and SOX were near low. Rally time? NO.
20MA has been resistance on the 10min. chart, need to get
throught that (8040?) on the next rally

11:20am:
TICKs more than -1067, Dow: 7958

11:25am:
TICKS now -1222, Dow: 7904

Q&A:
Zeev, I see the Naz tic is -500, but the trin is 0.54, a positive divergence?
What exactly makes a positive vs negative divergence in these figures? Is the trin the more important number, for instance if the tic was +500 and the trin 1.50, would that be a negative divergence?
: A-M-S
A:
Unfortunately, the trin is not representative due to WCOME volume being almost a third of the whole volume on the Naz.
: Zeev

TICKS:
This is the most sustained negative TICKs I have ever seen!
Dow: 7825! down 193!

Posted by: slopik / Post #of 6211
Two GNTs (-1300 & -1400) on NYSE in last 5 minutes.
: Pierre

Posted by: Softechie / Post #of 6217
LOL! The lower it goes the higher it shoots up...Good one!

Posted by Zeev:
Now we are seeing panic selling and thus the making of a bottom. I have no way of knowing how long this will take, but I am replacing stopped out stocks with those showing better relative strength. Just got back in IDPH here at $37.80.
: Zeev

Later: 12:30 ET:
Ticks: -1460, then... Dow: 7723

Posted by: Rich1/ 12:37:33 PM / Post #of 6280
Is that a -1000 Tick on the NAZ??? -1178??

12:40 EST: Vix 49.50!

ZEEV:
I have not seen a GNT on the Naz either, but the az will outperform to the DOW, IMTO, on the next run, so it should be more resilient here. The fact that we are printing new lows on the Naz without the new low list expanding is an interesting divergence. The Trin hit .35 on the naz and even the WCOME would not affect it that much, I did not do the exact calculation, but my guess is that the trin sans WCOME is in the .65, and with a negative tic in the -500, it is a nice divergence as well.
: Zeev

12:52:
Took out 7800 in this upmove. This rally could be "for real"!

Posted by: sma / 12:52:39 PM / Post #of 6317
The rally is happening on low volume (the lunch tactic) so i'd be wary until we see similiar action after this timeframe.

Posted by: augieboo / 12:56:12 PM / Post #of 6328
Rich1, VIX looks good, VXN needs to go MUCH higher, or we will have a PATHETIC "rally." There is just too much $$$ that is still switching back and forth between the NAZ and the NYSE, rather than getting out of equities, IMHO.

Posted by: orkrious, reply to: Zeev Hed / 1:23:06 PM /Post #of 6346
"Yes these are indeed extreme indicative of a wash out"
Zeev, P/C around .60 all day doesn't lend itself to much of a bottom.

Posted by: wahz / 1:36:24 PM / Post #of 6367
fwiw, when the 10 year hit under 4.4 with the share price at its low of the day, the fed model may have read the market at the most undervalued in history. It spiked to over 37% and may have hit 40, I won't know until later

Much Later:
Posted by: Zeev Hed / 3:35:35 PM / Post #of 6482

In edit: MU back at LOD and I am back in at $20.35, maybe they give me another trip? The same with CCMP this time in at $36.25. Probably will sleep over with those.

I am not so sure the "torture" is over. Took the Q off the table for some nice gains, covering this morning loss on the four and additional green for QLGC, BRCD at $19.50, BRCM at $20.30, QLGC at $42.20, ELX at $23.50 (minimal gain here) and MERQ at $24.41 a nice half bucker.
: Zeev

(2)
I think we are pretty close to a bottom, however, I have been thinking that for a week or more...#(msg-417016), and we are now 30 Naz point below that...
: Zeev

[energyi] 22/7/2002 13:54

(1)
10:30 may be too late for the first wave, but I think there will be a relapse during lunch. I missed entry into the Q, so I am going to wait for such a relapse id I play them at all. I may actually use the ramp to take some profits if presented in other stocks. Since July first we have been meandering, making marginal new lows on the Naz , yet I manage to rake some very nice profits in the Q, once this thing turn, the Q might be quite explosive.
: Zeev

(2) EARLIER?:
"A signal that the rally will be extensive is a string of GPT's in both the Naz and NYSE early next week. Unless we get at least two, maybe three such as well as other momentum indicators showing major improvements, I'll stick with the mild type of rally for now."
: Zeev

(3) COMPX 1550?
It does not look good for the above 1550 scenario on the next bump, so far. A wash out or an explosion would have been better. I got some IDPH here at a discount ($37.79) so I took it but I will not stay for too long.
: Zeev

[energyi] 22/7/2002 13:27

See above, in the Header. Or:

[e-zee] 22/7/2002 13:21

energyi

Good thread, well informed.

Is there a link to Zeev's site ?

ta

[energyi] 22/7/2002 12:57

Some Comments for Zeev's Thread today:

(1)
Zeev, Jerry Favors is calling a important bottom next week
around July,23 after this bottom a good rally with Dow reaching 8700. But after this rally the last crash into August 16

This rally that could start next week will be strong but short live because on August 16 Jerry is waiting another low.
Can this next rally last more? And next low jus on Sept/Oct?


What Turnips is saying ? / Regards, GFS

[nirvs] 20/7/2002 07:04

Energyi-Again, I appreciate your posting these messages. I also think Zeev has something very interesting to show us all. He certainly seems to be at the cutting edge. He has certainly found the pulse of something very powerful, and something we can all learn from.

Went long BRCM

[energyi] 19/7/2002 22:30

Ian,
This thread is a very extensive exploration of the trading
techniques of Zeev Hed. He has shown amazing success, and I am
trying to learn from that.

No one gets it right all the time. The interesting thing is how
people deal with the risk, when they get it wrong. I am watching
Zeev. But my own technique is diversification. I have rarely
traded Tech stocks in the past. I have begun to do so since starting
this thread.

Give Zeev's ideas a little time. There is something powerful here IMO

[ian56] 19/7/2002 21:11

Energyi

Just an observation but we can all find reasons why a trade is ok.
You seem to be reticent to re-evaluate in light of price action.
I have the same problem.
Be ready to change your mind.

I was short the Dow from 8600 and long the Nasdaq from 1330.
I closed the nasdaq long.

Regards,
Ian

[energyi] 19/7/2002 21:02

Posted by: jdaasoc / Date: 7/19/2002 4:57:53 PM
In reply to: Zeev Hed

The semi stocks SNDK CREE RMBS ELX BRCM CCMP plus AMGN and UPS up all day. Somebody thinks the bottom is in on these stocks or there just plain some insane buyers today

[energyi] 19/7/2002 21:00

IS BLACK MONDAY COMING? Zeev's Comments:
(1)
The sequence of the last two days is conducive to a black Monday, but these are quite rare, an up Monday is more likely (typically, when expiration week is down, the next week is initially. I went out at only 20% cash, shaking like an Autumn leaf, but quite confident that by the end of next week, today will be just a bad dream (g). The funny thing is that today, despite the relentless selling, did not hit that hard, even the JNJ fiasco ( a net loss of $4) got fully healed by the wins in ZRAN, IDPH, AMGN, CCMP and the Q. QCOM held like a champ and thus it should be able to reach that elusive target in the $32.5 to $34, maybe even another $5 on op of that. The darker it is out there, the more optimistic I become (g).
: Z.
(2)
No, I still think we are at a local low, as I just posted, black Mondays are quite rare. If I was convinced black Monday was coming, I would have gone to at least 50% cash, but I went out at 20%.
: Z.
(3)
Q: Any thoughts about today's GNT? (Grand Negative Ticks, i.e.: -1000)
A: A good one, and adding to yesterday and the last two weeks GNT's we are getting "close", maybe even there.
: Zeev