Belluscura Share Discussion Threads

[energyi] 17/7/2002 19:56

Delta,
I expect to make more than $0.20 by Friday!

I bought AAPL at $15.24 (just near the lows) today.
Closing price looks to be over $15.60, so I'm already up $0.36+.

Also bought SUNW at $5.64 and BRCM Aug.$17.50 calls at $4.40.
... and GNSS is up today.

Looks like profits on the whole portfolio, a sort of "clone"
of Zeevs

[deltablues] 17/7/2002 19:42

E, how about writing AAPL July 15 puts for 20 cents? This would give you an effective purchase price of 14.80 if they close below $15 on Friday, otherwise you get to keep the 20c.

[deltablues] 17/7/2002 17:52

AAPL have cash of over $5bn, around the same as their market cap. $3bn of this is described as "short term investment" - is this things like 90-day Treasury bills? Salomon Smith Barney expects earnings of 35c in 2004, so they're trading on 40 times that!

Looking back a bit further, the year's low from Sept 21 is 14.83. Lowest close was 14.98 on 3rd Oct. Day's low so far is 15.19.

I'm not sure if Lang's research applies to US techs today, as it was done on the UK market in the late 80s/early 90s. Food for thought anyway.

[energyi] 17/7/2002 15:50

TOKYO JOE's stock ideas (some are opposite Zeev):
Posted Tue Jul 16 17:10:47 EDT 2002
Keep eye on EBKR ORB MTON ELON NTBK NANO CYMI CCMP et al ,
I expect VRTS to test single digit ,, storage hype will soon die ,,
such as QLGC and ELX ,, short these tulips at every pop ,,

[energyi] 17/7/2002 15:15

SOX filled the (opening) Gap and is moving higher.
I bought some Broadcom Aug.$17.50 Calls on the dip.
My low-ball bid on AAPL was not hit

[energyi] 17/7/2002 15:13

Demonstrates the low value of trading decisions based on
Analyst's advice. Not surprising that there is an advantage to
those who are quickand nimble in making their own decisions

[deltablues] 17/7/2002 14:49

Previous low for the move was a spike low of 15.98 on 26th June. Recently, the 16.50-17 area has provided support (which is now resistance, of course).

Interesting comments on downgrades. I'd have thought that analysts would be "behind the curve" as they don't like publicly admitting they were wrong. In fact, analysts are generally slow to react to changes in both directions - Jeremy Lang of Liontrust runs an investment trust based on this theory.

[starseeker] 17/7/2002 09:34

okay no probs. by the way I'm moving to Singapore in September and will be attending the World Hedge Fund Conference taking place between 18-20 September, hopefully this should be very interesting and I can make lots of new contacts, could you perhaps post again your link to hedge funds again. cheers. s.

[energyi] 17/7/2002 09:31

s,
let's try next week. I have a meeting at 6pm.

[starseeker] 17/7/2002 08:58

e,

sorry I didn't pick your message up until late last night, I can come round to easy everything at 5:30pm this evening if it's convenient.

cheers.

s.

[energyi] 17/7/2002 07:43

To be investigated later:

" These links should help with the fair value question. "

AM Market Call:

PM Market Call:

Fair Value explained:

[energyi] 17/7/2002 07:18

Sym. Zeev's Picks....... Start. Close. . Chg. Pct.chg
.... ................... 07/02. 07/16. +8 tr.days
QLGC QLogic............. $34.43 $42.85 +$ +-%
ELX- Emulex............. $19.80 $25.10 +$ +-%
MERQ Mercury Interactive $22.46 $25.40 +$ +-%
BRCM Broadcom........... $15.35 $20.99 +$5.64 +36.74%
INTU Intuit............. $46.00 $46.59 +$ +-%
BRCD Brocade Comms...... $14.26 $20.42 +$6.16 +43.20%
GNSS Genisis Microchip.. $ 7.35 $ 8.07 +$ +-%
---> ZEEV'S PORTFOLIO... 159.65 189.42 +29.77 +18.65%
.... Compare:
SOX- Semiconductor Index 348.51 386.41 +37.90 +10.87%
NDX- Nasdaq 100 Index... 963.48 1011.3 +47.80 + 4.96%
INDU Dow Jones Indu..... 9007.8 8473.1 -534.7 - 5.94%

.... EI's hi-beta picks:
EWF- European Wt. Fund.. $ 2.53 $ 2.46 -$ 0.07 +-%
CGMI CGMI Group......... $ 0.41 $ 0.47 +$ +-%
AOLA AOL Latin America.. $ 0.59 $ 0.51 -$ +-%
---> E.I.'S PORTFOLIO... $ 3.53 $ 3.44 -$0.09 - 2.54%

---> EI'S new PORTFOLIO. + 10% gain/Sold: 1-2d

I'm happy I took profits when SOX was over 404:
NEWS:
Intel falls; announces layoffs

Several semiconductor stocks closed up, but not the largest one of all.

Intel (INTC) lost 76 cents a share, or 4 percent, to finish the day at $18.36 ahead of announcing that it missed its second-quarter earnings and revenue targets and will lay off 4,000 workers. See full story.

Among other chip stocks, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rose 15 cents to close at $9.40; Vitesse Semiconductor (VTSS) gained 19 cents to finish at $3.41; communications chipmaker Motorola (MOT) gained 19 cents, or 5.9 percent, and closed at $14.53; and Rambus (RMBS) rose 81 cents, or 14.5 percent, to close at $6.38.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ($SOX) lost 8.74 points, or 2.2 percent, to end the day at 386.41.

[deltablues] 16/7/2002 19:40

Managed to pick up some OOM for 5% less than I was trying to pay for it yesterday :-) Actually looked at topping up on PCT when it was at the day's lows, but didn't have the nerve :-(

Hurried short-covering in the wireless sector (NXTL +30%, TPC +23%, WWCA +10%), presumably in case MOT have good news tonight. Larry Ellison's tip AAPL (Apple Computer) also reporting. Nasdaq just fallen through lows for the day as I type.

[Edit: and promptly bounced off Friday's lows and is now above the open. The last time we had successive days that closed above their opens was 2-3-5 July]

[energyi] 16/7/2002 16:24

Took some profits: from yesterday's buys:

SEBL Seibel Systems..... $11.12 $12.33 +$1.21
PSFT Peoplesoft......... $13.90 $15.09 +$1.19
SUNW Sun Microcomputers. $ 5.30 $ 5.97 +$0.67

---> EI'S new PORTFOLIO. $30.32 $33.39 +$3.07 +10.12%: 1-2d

Also sold some GNSS puts at $0.90, acquired at $0.55 + 63.6%
(still have 20calls, and some shares)
Not impossible for GNSS to be $9-10 in good rally in Expiry.

This gives me some firepower in case we get a mid-day dip,
the "Lunchtime game".

[ashtongray] 16/7/2002 16:10

energyi: thanks for pointing me towards this thread - good stuff, keep it up.

[energyi] 16/7/2002 14:01

Genisys (GNSS):


Not showing on the (delayed) chart yet, but is trading at $7.89,
suggesting a breakout. to be confirmed on jump through $8

LATER:
GNSS has traded at $8.00, but no higher yet.
LATER STILL:
GNSS up $0.50, and has traded as high as $8.34. Resistance; $8.50-ish

[energyi] 16/7/2002 07:07

Added PCT at 124p this morning.

[deltablues] 15/7/2002 22:41

Drat! Wanted to buy some OOM at the close, but got distracted trying to find out why the FTSE collapsed at 4pm (and still none the wiser. Was it something Gordon said?). Shouldn't complain as I've still got ARM, CW., CTM and PCT from last week.

Just saw someone on usenet recommend a calendar spread in MSFT 55 call options (sell July 55 calls, buy August 55 calls) as the implied volatilies are completely out of sync (61% on July and 49% on Aug) and the spread is only 1.1; the poster reckons it should be at least double that. The bad news is that this was posted on Thursday, so the opportunity has probably gone by now.

One to remember for next time. Or are there less prominent stocks that still have mispriced options?

Disclaimer - don't trade options unless you know what you're doing.

[energyi] 15/7/2002 20:29

I agree, NIRVS.
I'm happy to see you caught those.
I followed Zeev's thread very closely, and jumped around the same
time (Actually, bought some well before and other just after)
My own mini-portfolio was up about 5% today! (smiles all around!):

Sym. Zeev's Picks....... Start. Close. . Chg. Pct.chg
.... ................... 07/02. 07/15. +8 tr.days
QLGC QLogic............. $34.43 $42.81 +$ +-%
ELX- Emulex............. $19.80 $23.70 +$ +-%
MERQ Mercury Interactive $22.46 $23.98 +$ +-%
BRCM Broadcom........... $15.35 $22.29 +$6.94 +45.21%
INTU Intuit............. $46.00 $46.72 +$ +-%
BRCD Brocade Comms...... $14.26 $20.08 +$5.82 +40.81%
GNSS Genisis Microchip.. $ 7.35 $ 7.67 +$ +-%
---> ZEEV'S PORTFOLIO... 159.65 187.25 +27.60 +17.29%
.... Compare:
SOX- Semiconductor Index 348.51 394.08 +45.57 +13.08%
NDX- Nasdaq 100 Index... 963.48 1020.6 +57.12 + 5.93%
INDU Dow Jones Indu..... 9007.8 8638.0 -369.8 - 4.11%

.... EI's hi-beta picks:
EWF- European Wt. Fund.. $ 2.53 $ 2.59 -$ +-%
CGMI CGMI Group......... $ 0.41 $ 0.45 +$ +-%
AOLA AOL Latin America.. $ 0.59 $ 0.50 -$ +-%
---> E.I.'S PORTFOLIO... $ 3.53 $ 3.54 +$0.01 + 0.28%
SUNW Sun Microcomputers. $ 5.30 $ 5.69 +$
GNSS Genisys Microchips. $ 7.35 $ 7.67 +$
SEBL Seibel Systems..... $11.12 $11.77 +$
PSFT Peoplesoft......... $13.90 $14.75 +$
GGT. Gabelli GlobalMedia $ 6.89 $ 6.90 +$
---> EI'S new PORTFOLIO. $44.56 $46.78 +$2.22 + 4.98%: 1d

I hope the GNSS pops tomorrow. I have some Friday $7.50 calls

[nirvs] 15/7/2002 20:23

thanks for posting this thread energyi! I've been following zeev's bb, anf he is amazing.

I bought brcd, brcm, and qlogic today when the dow was down 250 pts, and now come back to see this amazing rally----plus the above are WELL UP!!!

Also took longs on ARM and CTM late this afternoon. should see a nice gap up tomorrow. :>))

[energyi] 15/7/2002 19:28

ZEEV's view out 2-3 weeks: on COMPX: (now 1351)

All I had was a bottom before mid day Wdnesday, there is still an outside chance of a whack to 1296, then I see a run to 1526/55 by the end of this month, possibly early August.
Zeev

Note: 1526 - 1351 = 175 + 13%

[energyi] 15/7/2002 18:56

ZEEV A BULL now:

In reedit, just added SEBL at $11.09 and PSFT at $13.87 and AGM at $21.45.

1296, here we come...In edit, just added IRF here at $25.85 and QCOM at $27.20 and also INTU at $44.31. Time to reduce cash here to the 30% level, IMTO. I know I am not at 1296 but here at 1315 on the Naz time to put back those shiny horns, here is one declared BULL.

[energyi] 15/7/2002 15:00

Hmmm... ZEEv's selling this rally in SOX, etc:
QUOTE
In edit, and now took the Q off the table here, some buckers included, BRCD at $18.70 ($.70), BRCM at $20.80 ($.80), QLGC at $40.80 ($1.20) ELX at $$22.90 ($.60) and MERQ at #23.90).

I don't know, but the style is similar. In the meanwhile, took first blood here on CCMP out at $38.15, a very satisfactory, $2.40 gain in half an hour or so...

[energyi] 15/7/2002 14:24

ZEEV's picks holding steady, up slightly, despite
-180 points drop on the Dow.

I picked up some GNSS Call options on Friday.
Too early in the day, but (with the overhead gap) these may look
better by today's Close, and maybe much better by Friday.

LATER:
SOX now 379.48 +2.31 for the day / GNSS: $7.41 UNCH

BTW: GNSS is no longer in Zeev's Core Holding list, which is:
"The Q": BRCD, BRCM, QLGC, ELX and the newest member MERQ.

Still, if GNSS can hold above $7.40 Close, we could see a "pop" on Rally: