Belluscura Share Discussion Threads

[energyi] 05/7/2002 15:32

BELLS dl. time : high /late. Now
QLGC 15m. 10:31: 39.50/39.12
ELX- 20m. 10:39: 23.45/23.12
MERQ 15m. 10:47: 26.00/25.85
BRCM 15m. 10:26: 16.80/16.51
INTU 15m. 10:42: 49.20/49.05
BRCD 15m. 10:31: 17.70/17.28
GNSS 15m. 10:05: 07.75/07.43

SOX- Live 11.15: 388.9/388.9
INDU Live 10.39: 9296 / 9285

[energyi] 05/7/2002 13:47

BRCM: $16.34, nice move up through resistance at $16.00
for my favorite Bell.

[energyi] 05/7/2002 07:19

Zeev's->

What's the Fuss?



The following Tech stocks were selected some time ago by
Zeev Hed as stocks to own in a July Tech rally

Sym. Zeev's Picks....... Start. Close. . Chg. Pct.chg
.... ................... 07/02. 07/11. +6 tr.days
QLGC QLogic............. $34.43 $39.09 +$4.63 +-%
ELX- Emulex............. $19.80 $21.45 +$1.65 +-%
MERQ Mercury Interactive $22.46 $24.06 +$1.60 +-%
BRCM Broadcom........... $15.35 $18.81 +$3.46 +22.54%
INTU Intuit............. $46.00 $47.48 +$1.48 +-%
BRCD Brocade Comms...... $14.26 $17.44 +$3.18 +-%
GNSS Genisis Microchip.. $ 7.35 $ 7.37 +$0.02 +-%
---> ZEEV'S PORTFOLIO... 159.65 175.70 +16.05 +10.05%
.... Compare:
SOX- Semiconductor Index 348.51 372.48 +21.97 + 6.31%
NDX- Nasdaq 100 Index... 963.48 997.84 +34.36 + 3.57%
INDU Dow Jones Indu..... 9007.8 8808.9 -198.9 - 2.21%

.... EI's hi-beta picks:
EWF- European Wt. Fund.. $ 2.53 $ 2.59 +$0.06 +-%
CGMI CGMI Group......... $ 0.41 $ 0.44 +$0.03 +-%
AOLA AOL Latin America.. $ 0.59 $ 0.51 -$0.08aol +-%
---> E.I.'S PORTFOLIO... $ 3.53 $ 3.54 +$0.01 + 0.28%

Date.. Zeev's .SOX.. .Indu.
02.Jul 159.65 348.51 9007.8
03.Jul 170.62 363.21 9055.0
05.Jul 181.40 396.18 9379.5
08.Jul 173.22 376.70 9273.3
09.Jul 169.49 362.49 9096.1
10.Jul 168.22 348.71 8812.1
11.Jul 175.70 372.48 8808.9
12.Jul 179.28 377.05 8677.2
15.Jul 187.25 394.08 8638.0
16.Jul 189.42 386.41 8473.1

Here are the charts:

..One Year Chart (below).. QLogic (QLGC): $37.52 +$3.09 Wednesday!
.

..One Year Chart (below).. Emulex (ELX): $21.80 +$2.00
.

..One Year Chart (below).. Mercury Interactive (MERQ): $24.23 +$1.76
.

..One Year Chart (below).. Broadcom (BRCM): $15.74 +$0.39
.

..One Year Chart (below).. Intuit (INTU): $48.07 +$2.07
.

...and the "maybe" stocks...

..One Year Chart (below).. Brocade Communications (BRCD): $16.19 +$1.93
.

..One Year Chart (below).. Genisis Microchip (GNSS): $ 7.06 -$0.29
.

Impressive move on Wednesday! More on Friday!
------------
LINKS:
Zeev Hed's Thread: (on IHub):

Market Sense & Sentiment:
NASI index ("Buy" from below-1000):

Sentiment Charts:
Larry Dudash's HAL Thread:

[energyi] 05/7/2002 07:03

For a 2-3 week Tech Rally,
Zeev Hed likes: QLGC, ELX, MERQ, BRCM, INTU, and maybe BRCD & GNSS

Here are the charts:

QLogic (QLGC): $37.52 +$3.09 Wednesday!


Emulex (EMLX): $21.80 +$2.00


Mercury Interactive (MERQ): $24.23 +$1.76


Broadcom (BRCM): $15.74 +$0.39


Intuit (INTU): $48.07 +$2.07


...and "maybe" stocks...

Brocade Communications (BRCD): $16.19 +$1.93


Genisis Microchip (GNSS): $ 7.06 -$0.29


Impressive move on Wednesday!

[energyi] 04/7/2002 07:25

From SI: George S. Cole Thursday

I don't know if you have have been following Zeev lately but he has been extremely acccurate in his NAZ calls. Predicted the massacre to 1400 NAZ 2 months ago. Now calling for a rise to 1525-1550 by July 24, before the final wave down this fall. I am playing the long side here, but have just a modest position.
ZEEV:

[energyi] 04/7/2002 07:16

I bought BRCM, EWF, CGMI, and AOLA yesterday.
It seems I should have had a look at Sun! I will on Friday.

If Broadcom (BRCM) can punch through resistance at yesterday's
high, that will be a sign that stocks are ready to run (for a while at least)

[deltablues] 03/7/2002 22:34

Yes, relief plus good employment figures on Friday could see a lot of shorts being covered next week. We're certainly well overdue for a rally.

Some important support points seem to have held on DJI and IXIC, but DJT and DJU are still going down (any Dow Theorists around?).

I see your ex-poker partner is 11.3% better off than he was yesterday!

[energyi] 02/7/2002 14:38

JPM is the hardest hit BELL today.
Suggesting further downside in Banks

[energyi] 01/7/2002 18:17

Yeah. He rarely one, but was a good sport.
We played for small money.

He's a billionaire (or something?) now and I'm still playing
for smallish bets- so who's the clever one?

[deltablues] 01/7/2002 18:14

That's the one (and AAPL is Apple Computer). Probably the only Silicon Valley CEO I could imagine working for.

So how much did you win off him? :-)

BRCM making fresh 52-week lows today, according to Yahoo.

[energyi] 01/7/2002 18:02

Sun Microcomputers, right?

I know Scott McNealy (CEO) and used to play poker with him
when in University. No rocket scientist, but a good manager
and motivator

[deltablues] 01/7/2002 17:47

Yes, I wasn't saying they were all leaders/laggards, just trying to be complete! I've only been looking at US stocks for a couple of months and may well prune the list a bit. Anyway, thanks for your thoughts on them. I agree there's been a lot of rotation, which makes it harder to spot the performance outliers.

Did you mean to type SUN instead of SUNW? I read an interview with Larry Ellison this weekend in which he recommended AAPL and SUNW (along with MSFT and ORCL, of course) as the four most likely to survive the tech fallout. For what that's worth.

[energyi] 01/7/2002 16:49

Some small charts:

[energyi] 30/6/2002 08:46

Trying to classify all the stocks on Deltablue's list.
So far:
Leading: AA, GE, HD, HPQ, IBM, JPM, *MOT*, *MRK*, MSFT
...... :

Irratic/ C, CAT, CSCO, DD, EK, GM, INTC, IP, JNJ, KO, MCD
Coincid: MO, NVDA, ORCL, PG, SBC, SUN, T, UTX, WMT, XOM

Lagging: AMAT, AXP, BA, DIS, HON, MER, MMM

*These do not always lead, but often give good signals

[energyi] 30/6/2002 06:47

Hewlett (HPQ) is not bad:

[energyi] 30/6/2002 06:19

Thanks, Delta.

That's quite a long list. I suspect that some of these may lead the
market for a while, and then hand off the task to others. INTC
may have give away its leading role status (for at least awhile.)
It will be interesting to see if it can win it back.

Whatever the flaws of JPM, it seems to work, whereas neither
C nor BAC lead very well. ORCL has bottomed before the Markets
(over the past year) but hasn't been very useful in timing tops.

[deltablues] 29/6/2002 21:45

In fact, here's a list of the US companies I keep an eye on and occasionally trade. Basically the Dow constituents plus a few leading (or should that be trailing?) techs.

AA
AMAT
AXP
BA
C
CAT
CSCO
DD
DIS
EK
GE
GM
HD
HON
HPQ
IBM
INTC
IP
JNJ
JPM
KO
MCD
MER
MMM
MO
MOT
MRK
MSFT
NVDA
ORCL
PG
SBC
SUNW
T
TXN
UTX
WMT
XOM

I also follow TEU on the Toronto exchange, but only because my brother works for them and keeps asking irritating questions about the share price!

[deltablues] 29/6/2002 21:33

Energyi, I thought the nineties version was "what's good for Goldman Sachs is good for America"!

MSFT (anti-trust) and JPM (derivatives) have unique problems which may not make them good belwethers - ORCL seems to have been leading the software sector up this week. DELL (positive) and HPQ (negative) seem to be good for measuring sentiment towards the PC industry. I don't know much about US banks, but would C or BAC be more representative? Or maybe AXP would be good for keeping tabs on credit?

Just a few random thoughts.

[energyi] 29/6/2002 15:39

HERE's FORMER BELLWETHER INTEL / INTC Falling from grace:



...and Cisco (CSCO) tracking, but Not Leading:


...compare with Broadcom (BRCM) leading role:

[energyi] 29/6/2002 15:26

Watch This Bellwether Stock / by David Fuller, Fuller Money


Microsoft (MSFT) is the current standard-bearer for stock markets. During bull
markets it is usually possible to identify a dominant sector which is often led by
one key stock. In the U.S. bull trend of the 1990s that sector has been technology
and Microsoft is unquestionably the bellwether stock, not only on Wall Street but
also for global stock markets where prices have risen in recent years. For a major
company its share price rise of 925% in the last 5 years is staggering. With a
market capitalization of US$500 billion at its July intra-day high of $US100.75,
Microsoft's stock market value is far greater than that of any other company.
(D. Fuller, 1999)
MORE:

[energyi] 29/6/2002 15:22

Early: AA, GE, HD, HPQ, IBM, JPM, *MOT*, *MRK*, MSFT
.... :
Irrat: C, CAT, CSCO, DD, EK, GM, INTC, IP, JNJ, KO
.... : MCD, MO, NVDA, ORCL
Late : AMAT, AXP, BA, DIS, HON, MER, MMM

PG
SBC
SUNW
T
TXN
UTX
WMT
XOM

AA:

..
HD:

..
IBM:

..
MOT:

..
MRK:

..
MSFT:

..

[energyi] 29/6/2002 14:49

I'm beginning to believe that there may be a handful of US and UK stocks
that I should follow every day. These are the leaders, the bellwether stocks
that lead the markets up and down.

"A bellwether stock is a stock which is used to gauge the performance of the
market in general. General Motors is an example of bellwether stock in the past.
Hence the saying 'What's good for GM is good for America'. But newer and
more fashionable stocks have taken this role in place of GM. First, IBM,
then Microsoft. And different names today."

Which ones do you follow?
I have set up charts for the better ones here, so we can follow them easily:


..

..

..

..

..

Here are longer term charts on my favorite Bellwethers...
:
TECH:
Broadcom (BRCM) > $SOX > $NDX > $SPX > Dow


BANK:
JP Morgan Chase (JPM) > $ BKX > $SPX


SHORT TERM (5 Day) Charts:

TECH: Broadcom (BRCM)


BANK: JP Morgan Chase (JPM)


INDUSTRY: General Motors (GM)

---------

LINKS:
Test your Bellweathers:
(Yahoo):

(Bigcharts):