Belluscura Share Discussion Threads

[energyi] 15/7/2002 09:34

Some Comments from Zeev Hed:
(1)
I think we are going to have some "major divergence" between the Dow and the NAZ here, but short term, I would say we are within 3 days of a good tradeable bottom
...
. (for the summer rally): I have a more bouncy run, more like the February run this year and the January run last year, nothing stellar nor exceeding 20% on the Naz rom next week low. Of course, if we get capitulation this week, that may change the story, but I do not expect that, the volume has not been increasing on the decline, a feature most often present prior to a capitulation move.

(2)
...I just corrected it, the October date is a preliminary bottom of the nebacle, but it is too early to call yet...I have a possible bottom on September 16th right now as well, we'll have to see how the summer ramp develops.

(3)
We will need to have serious expansion of new highs and volume for the 1610 in the Naz to be reached by early August IMTO. Right now, this is a low probability scenario for me, I stick with the 1526/55 area as target for the next ramp.

[energyi] 13/7/2002 12:09

okay, okay... this is similar to some others called TECH.
But this one highlights Zeev Hed's portfolio and comments.
He has the most useful thread that I have seen for Day traders
in US markets.

Worth a visit! I made my first posting on it yesterday.

[deltablues] 13/7/2002 00:40

huwrayhenry, energyi has lots of interesting threads to his credit. The only problem is keeping up with them all and remembering what you posted on which one!

[deltablues] 13/7/2002 00:37

Sure, the most loathed stocks are likely to bounce the most when sentiment changes. I was just wondering whether NDX was a better leading indicator than IXIC.

The reason I mentioned it was because of a chart I saw on a subscription BB ( - the free monthly articles are well worth reading BTW). Without giving too much away, have a look at the relative behaviour of the two Nasdaq indices during the Jul-Sep 2000 double top and compare it to the Sep 2001-present timespan.

[energyi] 12/7/2002 23:49

NAS better than Dow:



... and Zeev continues to outperform:

Sym. Zeev's Picks....... Start. Close. . Chg. Pct.chg
.... ................... 07/02. 07/11qlgc. +5 tr.days
QLGC QLogic............. $34.43 $39.09 +$4.63 +-%
ELX- Emulex............. $19.80 $21.45 +$1.65 +-%
MERQ Mercury Interactive $22.46 $24.06 +$1.60 +-%
BRCM Broadcom........... $15.35 $18.81 +$3.46 +22.54%
INTU Intuit............. $46.00 $47.48 +$1.48 +-%
BRCD Brocade Comms...... $14.26 $17.44 +$3.18 +-%
GNSS Genisis Microchip.. $ 7.35 $ 7.37 +$0.02 +-%
---> ZEEV'S PORTFOLIO... 159.65 175.70 +16.05 +10.05%
.... Compare:
SOX- Semiconductor Index 348.51 372.48 +21.97 + 6.31%
NDX- Nasdaq 100 Index... 963.48 997.84 +34.36 + 3.57%
INDU Dow Jones Indu..... 9007.8 8808.9 -198.9 - 2.21%

.... EI's hi-beta picks:
EWF- European Wt. Fund.. $ 2.53 $ 2.59 +$0.06 +-%
CGMI CGMI Group......... $ 0.41 $ 0.44 +$0.03 +-%
AOLA AOL Latin America.. $ 0.59 $ 0.51 -$0.08aol +-%
---> E.I.'S PORTFOLIO... $ 3.53 $ 3.54 +$0.01 + 0.28%

[huwrayhenry] 12/7/2002 21:53

Enjoyed your thread.
HH.

[energyi] 12/7/2002 21:24

Delta,
I'm going after the "little guys", cheap stocks that CFD dealers
may not like. A rising tide would lift all the boats, but I expect
bigger gains on those down 80-90% from their highs.

[deltablues] 12/7/2002 21:09

NDX closed up a couple of points and held 1000 and closed above yesterday's highs. IXIC was down a point, failed to hold 1375 and closed slightly below yesterday's highs.

Should we be concentrating on NDX (Nasdaq 100) as it seems to be providing leadership? I'd imagine it has a much higher ratio of leaders to laggards and fewer deadbeats. Also, I believe the Composite contains a number of non-tech companies.

Been meaning to pick up a few US techs myself, but I'm in the middle of changing CFD dealers.

[energyi] 12/7/2002 20:18

Still, quite a good day for Zeev's portfolio.
I do not take into account his trading, just the value of
the portfolio on an unweighted basis.

I belive he is concerned about a possible drop into Wednesday next.
Then a big rally into the expiry. (Tires me, all this volatility!)
I added some SUNW, near the LOD.

Sym. Zeev's Picks....... Start. Close. . Chg. Pct.chg
.... ................... 07/02. 07/12. +7 tr.days
QLGC QLogic............. $34.43 $39.42 +$4.99 +-%
ELX- Emulex............. $19.80 $22.43 +$2.64 +-%
MERQ Mercury Interactive $22.46 $23.40 +$0.94 +-%
BRCM Broadcom........... $15.35 $20.37 +$5.02 +32.70%
INTU Intuit............. $46.00 $47.76 +$1.76 +-%
BRCD Brocade Comms...... $14.26 $18.48 +$4.18 +29.31%
GNSS Genisis Microchip.. $ 7.35 $ 7.42 +$0.07 +-%
---> ZEEV'S PORTFOLIO... 159.65 179.28 +19.63 +12.29%
.... Compare:
SOX- Semiconductor Index 348.51 377.05 +21.97 + 8.19%
NDX- Nasdaq 100 Index... 963.48 1000.5 +36.97 + 3.83%
INDU Dow Jones Indu..... 9007.8 8677.2 -198.9 - 2.21%

.... EI's hi-beta picks:
EWF- European Wt. Fund.. $ 2.53 $ 2.51 -$0.02 +-%
CGMI CGMI Group......... $ 0.41 $ 0.47 +$0.06 +-%
AOLA AOL Latin America.. $ 0.59 $ 0.57 -$0.02 +-%
---> E.I.'S PORTFOLIO... $ 3.53 $ 3.55 +$0.02 + 0.56%
SUNW Sun Microcomputers. $ x.xx $ 5.27 +$0.00

[deltablues] 12/7/2002 20:11

The Nasdaq itself doesn't seem to know where it should be going today!

Good call on the top though (1402.45 according to Yahoo).

[energyi] 12/7/2002 19:23

HIGH TODAY? : was 1402.45 on COMPX:

Just noticed this post from ZEEV yesterday:
Sorry, but I have no idea how tomorrow will evolve, there is a good chance that this move will stall smack at 1403, but even if it continues straight up and gives us another 40/60 Naz points, that does not assure that the trend will continue.
Zeev / LINK:

[energyi] 12/7/2002 12:49

..and this from TOKYO JOE (remember him?):

Buy all tulips ,, pre-market ,, nvda brcd brcm qlgc ,, for 2 - 3 poinr upside
,, do not go long ,, only as a trade ,, interim longs are mlnm and nxtl ,,

(BRCD, BRCM, and QLGC are Zeev picks also.)

Tech bounce ,, we are still going lower ,, more accounting fear and Al Queda
and Iraq,,, stay short hmos ,, home builders , myg whr etc ,,

TJ's TULIPS: nxtl: nice one!
NVDA. .

MLNM. .

NXTL. .

TJ's SHORTS:
HMOS
MYG
WHR

[energyi] 11/7/2002 12:26

Seems that TECH (at least some TEchs) are so bombed out no one
wants to sell them anymore

[deltablues] 11/7/2002 09:10

My US portfolio, as suggested by Larry Ellison, hasn't done too badly either:

ORCL Oracle............. $ 8.68 $ 8.98 +$0.30 +-%
SUNW Sun Micro.......... $ 4.39 $ 5.05 +$0.66 +-%
---> Db's portfolio.....  13.07  14.03 + 0.96 +7.34%

I didn't fancy AAPL or MSFT (which are up a couple of percent, for the record).

Now if only I'd actually bought these stocks on that day, instead of waiting till Monday and buying UK techs!

[energyi] 10/7/2002 20:22

Despite the big fall in the Dow, Broadcom was up today!
Zeev's portfolio holding a 5% gain since last week.

Sym. Zeev's Picks....... Start. Close. . Chg. Pct.chg
.... ................... 07/02. 07/10. +5 tr.days
QLGC QLogic............. $34.43 $36.88 +$2.45 +-%
ELX- Emulex............. $19.80 $20.72 +$0.92 +-%
MERQ Mercury Interactive $22.46 $23.41 +$0.95 +-%
BRCM Broadcom........... $15.35 $17.15 +$1.80 +-%
INTU Intuit............. $46.00 $46.10 +$0.10 +-%
BRCD Brocade Comms...... $14.26 $16.77 +$2.51 +-%
GNSS Genisis Microchip.. $ 7.35 $ 7.19 -$0.16 -%
---> ZEEV'S PORTFOLIO... 159.65 168.22 + 9.84 + 5.37%
.... Compare:
SOX- Semiconductor Index 348.51 348.71 + 0.20 + 0.05%
NDX- Nasdaq 100 Index... 963.48 959.75 - 3.73 - 0.48%
INDU Dow Jones Indu..... 9007.8 8812.5 -195.3 - 2.17%

.... EI's hi-beta picks:
EWF- European Wt. Fund.. $ 2.53 $ 2.53 +$0.00 +-%
CGMI CGMI Group......... $ 0.41 $ 0.44 +$0.03 +-%
AOLA AOL Latin America.. $ 0.59 $ 0.58 -$0.02 +-%
---> E.I.'S PORTFOLIO... $ 3.53 $ 3.54 +$0.01 + 0.28%

[energyi] 10/7/2002 13:42

Zeev's done it again!
Looks like we are going to see a nice pop in his Bells.
- especially Broadcom, which I own through in-the-money Calls.

The guy is amazing

[trumpet] 10/7/2002 08:48

Energyi - I'd really appreciate your input on this thread if you have the time, I think you may find it interesting:

[energyi] 10/7/2002 08:34

Do NOT GIVE UP ON A BOUNCE...

From IHub:
Posted by: Zeev Hed / Date: 7/9/2002 10:59:19 PM

Could very well be, and I actually fully expect them to break, but before that, I think that "they" will bring prices up to do a little more distribution. Look they had an almost straight run from 1834 to 1336, a full 500 Naz points in less than three months, and if you want to count from the year's high just a short six month back, 760 points, respectively 27% and 36%, that is quite a move even for a "bloated" market. Here we are not even 45 Naz points from the lows, yet, we are not even at 50% of the new lows we set last week. The new highs (which reached a local nadir of only 8 on the low last week), are here at 5 times that much. And the selling pressure (as indicated by total puny volume) has subsided markedly. Quite a number of additional oscillators are "turning" (P/c ratio for instance is already coming down a little). I don't think we are going to crash or anything like that, if we were, volume would have expanded in the last two days, but it is contracting. I think that the general scenario of a bounce to just under the major resistance at 1550 is still in the cards here, then you may want to consider these plays as shorts.

Zeev

[energyi] 09/7/2002 21:21

GAP NOW FILLED..

Believe it or not, the Market may head higher tomorrow.
Some Bellwethers held up surprisingly well today.

Looks like REVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDERS if we get an upmove from here

[energyi] 09/7/2002 21:06

From ZEEV's Thread: Softechie Tuesday, Jul 9, 2002 4:21 PM

39 Overvalued Stocks - In Case You Missed Your Chance
09-Jul-02 13:32 ET
[BRIEFING.COM - Robert V. Green] You missed the big market collapse. You wished you shorted on the way down. You are asking yourself "Are there still any stocks out there with excessive valuations that should collapse eventually?" Here's the answer to that question.

What Makes An Overvalued Stock? Contradictory Valuations
By our definition, from a fundamental, long-term view, an overvalued stock is one that has a contradiction between its fundamental performance and its valuation.

For the most part, this usually means a stock priced as a growth stock that shows no growth. It could also mean a stock priced with an extremely high PE, but no sign of earnings expansion.

Stocks with built in contradictions in their valuations have one of two futures, usually: explosive growth that justifies the overvaluation or stock price drops.

All of the hundreds of stocks which suffered 90% or more price declines suffered the latter fate when growth actually went negative. If you were shorting these overvalued stocks at that time, the last year or more has been profitable.

Are there any more left?
MORE / LIST:

[energyi] 09/7/2002 21:03

Sym. Zeev's Picks....... Start. Close. . Chg. Pct.chg
.... ................... 07/02. 07/09. +4 day
QLGC QLogic............. $34.43 $37.51 +$3.08 +-%
ELX- Emulex............. $19.80 $21.05 +$1.25 +-%
MERQ Mercury Interactive $22.46 $23.96 +$1.50 +-%
BRCM Broadcom........... $15.35 $16.70 +$1.35 +-%
INTU Intuit............. $46.00 $46.40 +$0.40 +-%
BRCD Brocade Comms...... $14.26 $16.45 +$2.19 +-%
GNSS Genisis Microchip.. $ 7.35 $ 7.28 -$0.07 -%
---> ZEEV'S PORTFOLIO... 159.65 169.49 + 9.84 + 6.16%
.... Compare:
SOX- Semiconductor Index 348.51 362.49 +12.98 + 3.72%
NDX- Nasdaq 100 Index... 963.48 990.23 +16.75 + 1.73%
INDU Dow Jones Indu..... 9007.8 9096.1 + 88.3 + 0.98%

.... EI's hi-beta picks:
EWF- European Wt. Fund.. $ 2.53 $ 2.68 +$0.28 +-%
CGMI CGMI Group......... $ 0.41 $ 0.46 +$0.06 +-%
AOLA AOL Latin America.. $ 0.59 $ 0.58 -$0.02 +-%
---> E.I.'S PORTFOLIO... $ 3.53 $ 3.85 +$0.32 + 9.07%

[energyi] 08/7/2002 21:57

Sym. Zeev's Picks....... Start. Close. . Chg. Pct.chg
.... ................... 02/07. 05/07. +3 day
QLGC QLogic............. $34.43 $38.55 +$4.12 +-%
ELX- Emulex............. $19.80 $21.97 +$2.11 +-%
MERQ Mercury Interactive $22.46 $24.90 +$2.44 +-%
BRCM Broadcom........... $15.35 $16.76 +$1.41 +-%
INTU Intuit............. $46.00 $47.01 +$1.01 +-%
BRCD Brocade Comms...... $14.26 $16.80 +$2.54 +-%
GNSS Genisis Microchip.. $ 7.35 $ 7.23 -$0.13 -%
---> ZEEV'S PORTFOLIO... 159.65 173.22 +13.51 + 8.50%
.... Compare:
SOX- Semiconductor Index 348.51 376.70 +28.19 + 8.09%
NDX- Nasdaq 100 Index... 963.48 1015.3 +78.82 + 8.18%
SPX- S&P 500 Index...... xxx.xx 977.21 + x.xx + x.xx%
INDU Dow Jones Indu..... 9007.8 9273.3 +265.5 + 2.95%

.... EI's hi-beta picks:
EWF- European Wt. Fund.. $ 2.53 $ 2.81 +$0.28 +-%
CGMI CGMI Group......... $ 0.41 $ 0.47 +$0.06 +-%
AOLA AOL Latin America.. $ 0.59 $ 0.57 -$0.02 +-%
---> E.I.'S PORTFOLIO... $ 3.53 $ 3.85 +$0.32 + 9.07%

[energyi] 06/7/2002 10:58

According to Painchaud, the technology sector is
displaying more positive insider action than at any
time over the last 13 years, with companies like

Motorola........... (MOT),
Electronic Arts.... (ERTS),
McData............. (MCDT),
MSC Software....... (MNS), and
Computer Associates (CA)



all showing accelerated insider buying
or an abatement of insider selling.
MORE:

[energyi] 05/7/2002 18:48

Sym. Zeev's Picks....... Start. Close. . Chg. Pct.chg
.... ................... 02/07. 05/07. +2 day
QLGC QLogic............. $34.43 $39.88 +$5.41 +15.71%
ELX- Emulex............. $19.80 $23.35 +$3.55 +17.93%
MERQ Mercury Interactive $22.46 $25.72 +$3.26 +14.51%
BRCM Broadcom........... $15.35 $17.45 +$2.10 +13.68%
INTU Intuit............. $46.00 $50.09 +$4.09 + 8.89%
BRCD Brocade Comms...... $14.26 $17.47 +$3.21 +22.51%
GNSS Genisis Microchip.. $ 7.35 $ 7.44 +$0.07 - 0.95%
---> ZEEV'S PORTFOLIO... 159.65 181.40 +21.75 +13.62%
.... Compare:
SOX- Semiconductor Index 348.51 396.18 +47.67 +13.68%
NDX- Nasdaq 100 Index... 963.48 1060.9 +97.42 +10.11%
SPX- S&P 500 Index...... 989.78 xxx.xx + x.xx + x.xx%
INDU Dow Jones Indu..... 9007.8 9379.5 +371.7 + 4.12%

.... EI's hi-beta picks:
EWF- European Wt. Fund.. $ 2.53 $ 2.90 +$0.37 +14.62%
CGMI CGMI Group......... $ 0.41 $ 0.49 +$0.08 +19.51%
AOLA AOL Latin America.. $ 0.59 $ 0.63 +$0.04 + 6.78%
---> E.I.'S PORTFOLIO... $ 3.53 $ 4.12 +$0.49 +13.88%