Belluscura Share Discussion Threads

[energyi] 19/7/2002 18:43

Broadcom Corp. Raised to `Strong Buy' at Frost Securities/ By Sybil Carlson
Princeton, New Jersey, July 19 (Bloomberg Data) -- Broadcom Corp. (BRCM US) was raised to ``strong buy' from ``buy' by analyst Cody G Acree at Frost Securities Inc. The 12-month target price is $36.00 per share.

[energyi] 19/7/2002 17:44

A breakdown in VIX (immanent, below 41.5) may bring good rally:


..see Monday! the first day above.

[energyi] 19/7/2002 17:40

Here's where the strength is:

Semiconductor Index (SOX) showing good strength since opening


Latest: 373.79 hod: 376-ish

[energyi] 19/7/2002 15:29

-1080 Ticks, within 100 pts. of Sept Low!

A number of measures are looking very similar to the Sept. 2001 Low:


yahoo has more than -1000 for both nyse and nasdaq

TICK Q&A:
Zeev, Did you get a GNT on Yahoo?
I got it on the TickQ on my QCharts.-1149.
/ Manny
Manny,
I got -1148 on NY and -1082 on Naz. from Yahoo
/ Orvis

[energyi] 19/7/2002 14:57

MAX PAIN Q&A:

Q:
Posted by: montanamark / Post # of 5310

can any of you max pain experts shed light on the timing of the effect? for instance how long do the max pain targets playout
and what happens when expiration is complete? its amazing that
most of the 8 to 10 stocks i trade frequently are all gravitating
to the iq targets. is it fair to say that the max pain theory is
on this time? comments on the question someone raised about
option players having that much control.

[energyi] 19/7/2002 14:01

A COOL CUSTOMER, our Zeev:

Sorry about the delay, I was making a reedit to my last post as the window closed, just wanted to Post reentry into the Q, BRCM at $19.15, BRCD at a nice half bucker discount at $18.98, QLGC at $41.40 and both ELX and MERQ at $23.80. Also reentered AMGN at a $.71 discount at $34 flat.

Zeev

[energyi] 19/7/2002 13:38

In edit, to be on the safe side, I took the half bucker from BRCM here near the opening, no sense standing in fron of a freight train.

That early in the day we have slow downs here on IHUB? Let's hope it does not continue today. We may have a wild one, however, my horns are still firmly attached, too many of my indicators are now showing the potential for a run much higher than the target of 1526/55, one branch of the analysis even shows a run to 1734, it all depends on the next few days of trading. For the time being, I am staying with the main scenario of 1526/55, it surely will not hurt if as we go to 1475 or so, the model flashes a potential continuation to the higher level. We are getting nice divergence of opinions, with the bearish camp increasing in its tone, all that as various BP indicators approach lows not see since last September and with the BPNDX already having made a solid turn. Other indicators like VIX, VXN P/C ratios etc. are similarly in area of past turns.

Zeev

[energyi] 19/7/2002 11:00

ET= Extra Time? After normal session?

SUNW warns! Down $0.76 in after hours trading:
5.02-5.05 18:57:21
MSFT.E 50.60 -0.51 51.11 50.36 50.60 19:00:27
BRCM.E 19.589 +0.589 19 19.55 19.589 18:55:15



Broadcom's 2nd-Quarter Net Loss Shrank on Higher Sales, Year-Ago Costs
Dow Jones Business News, Thursday, July 18, 2002 at 17:08




IRVINE, Calif. -- Broadcom Corp. (BRCM) posted a sharply narrower second- quarter net loss on higher revenue and year-earlier charges.

The commmunications-chip maker reported a net loss of $129.4 million, or 49 cents a share, compared with a year-earlier net loss of $436.4 million, or $1.73 a share.

Revenue jumped 22% to $258.2 million from $210.9 million.

Excluding acquisition- and restructuring-related expenses, payroll taxes on certain stock option exercises and "certain nonrecurring charges," Broadcom said it would have lost $16.8 million, or six cents a share, a penny a share narrower than the mean estimate of analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call. The year- earlier loss excluding items and goodwill amortization was $41.1 million, or 16 cents a share.

[deltablues] 19/7/2002 08:42

Thanks, magic. Wouldn't Americans normally write that as 2pm EST, though?

Anyway, it was also in the close of day comment (this is Yahoo/briefing.com), so whatever it doesn't seem to have happened yet!

I've noticed strange trading patterns around 2-3pm as well. If they are caused by mutual funds, they'll probably tail off eventually as private investors start giving up on the market.

[energyi] 19/7/2002 07:09

Zeev's comment on Apple's trading range:
14.68 was the September low and we had almost two weeks of AAPL lingering just above $15 then, a breach of $14.68 would signify that something is "rotten" there. Of course, the $12 cash per share is the reason I call AAPL a "value" play, unfortunately, value plays remain that way, sometimes for longer than we would like, and the breach may indicate a new trading range with about $15 or so as a top, that would be an appropriate time to redeploy these funds to work somewhere else.
/ Zeev

[magic] 19/7/2002 00:19

Deltablues
ET = Eastern Time I believe
Pattern for a few days of sell offs between 2-3pm as redemptions, ie investors cashing in their unit trusts etc with their brokers get sold off
Can this continue, I wonder as such a blatent pattern can't continue to be exploited?!

[energyi] 19/7/2002 00:00

Q&A ON THE ZEEV THREAD: Re: COMPX Target of 1526/1555

In reply to: mike_s who wrote msg# 5118 Date: 7/18/2002 6:52:08 PM
You got to be a little more patient, the 1526/55 window is till August 13, a one day set back is no more than a one day ramp, particularly just ahead of expiry.
Zeev
------
Posted by: mike_s
In reply to: Zeev Hed who wrote msg# 5119 Date: 7/18/2002 6:53:52 PM

Too many Open Calls on the Q's.... Doubt we get any kind of ramp whatsoever... This sucker is heading down big time.

[deltablues] 18/7/2002 20:03

Or maybe margin calls?

"we've even heard talk that some speculators have begun shorting the market in anticipation of the 2 ET redemption/margin call deadline at mutual funds and brokerage houses"

Another gap in my knowledge - anyone know what a 2 ET redemption is?

[energyi] 18/7/2002 19:00

Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: kevinb who wrote msg# 4886 Date: 7/18/2002 2:53:07 PM

I still have my bull horns on, but until next week, I don't expect any big advance. Just took another $.40 from IDPH, out at $40.20, trying to "lighten up" before the close.

Zeev

[energyi] 18/7/2002 18:27

Wow: -1086 TICK!
Will this be a turning point?

Dow down only -51pts???
This move took the NDX back down to 1000.
So maybe it is expiry-related

[energyi] 18/7/2002 14:26

The good news today, is the rally in CMGI:



...which looks to be headed towards $0.60 or higher.
Bid: 0.54 / Bid Size 971
Ask: 0.55 / Ask Size 526
Note: acquired at $0.41!

[energyi] 18/7/2002 10:11

Delta,
I'm a US citizen, which creates some special problems.
I tend to do my aggressive options trading, and long only trading
in different accounts. This minimises the paperwork, but creates
some cross margin inefficiencies.

A good broker should be able to link the two, but they do not
always treat "risk reversals" properly.

s.,
I'm not sure I can make Moon's do, but I'll have a look at the other

[starseeker] 18/7/2002 10:05

energyi

you are obviously very experienced

i think moonblue is organising something this friday, haven't been invited but I'm catching a train at 8:30pm

the one I'm on about was just to see how much interest there was, pls. refer to

[energyi] 18/7/2002 09:43

S.,
I expect a short-lived rally in Techs stocks (and have a few longs.
Bought my first tech stock in many years last week.) With that
rally, the dollar should rally, and POG drift lower.

I took a placement in Golden Star (GSS) yesterday. At $1.30 or lower
and with 1/2 warrants attached. I expect I will have a chance to
sell it at $1.80 or higher before end Oct. I can dabble with Techs,
but will take medium/ longer term placements in mining.
They are counter-cyclical to each other.

Get-together:
Are you talking about Moonie's meeting? / Or another?

[starseeker] 18/7/2002 08:01

energyi

first question is if dollar carries on declining will it not take gold with it, how come you're not diversifying into technology or other sectors ?

Second question are you interested in attending a US traders lunch/dinner see other thread

cheers

stephen

[energyi] 18/7/2002 07:41

The earlier idea:
Sell the MSFT 55 calls, buy something further out (at 50?)
might work. But you need an account with plenty of spare
cash for that. I sweat my options account quite hard.

I started with $22,000 three months ago, have taken out
about $40,000 (for placements in Mining shares) and have
$32,000 left. This account finances my investment in shares like:

Wheaton River (t.WRM)
Formation Capital (t.FCO)
Scandinavian Gold (private)
...
which are investments of a longer term nature.

Essentially, I trade up to 10% of my capital aggressively, and
invest the rest long term, mainly in Gold-related shares. If ever
I "blow out" on short term trading, I can replenish from the Long
Term account. Biggest risk for me would be a sustained drop in
Gold prices. The drop over the last few weeks has been painless,
as I was prepared for it.

[deltablues] 17/7/2002 21:55

Yes, it does sound a bit pathetic put like that. It just seems a shame not to take advantage of the huge premiums on July options. eg MSFT 55 calls have an implied volatility of 200%!