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[aleman] 05/4/2017 16:18

Have ratings agencies been too lenient on CMBSs again?



Jump in office loan delinquenices drives the overall delinquneciy rate for CMBSs up in February.



Australia has had the fastest house price growth in the developed world since the last crash. Is the reason exploding levels of interest only loans, which are now being tightened up?

[aleman] 05/4/2017 07:41

This is the 10th US retail chain to file for bankruptcy this year, taking the 2017 to date total past the total for entire year of 2016.

[aleman] 04/4/2017 14:10

Brits getting more concerned about their finances.

[aleman] 04/4/2017 13:01

Blip or start of recession?

Personal insolvencies rose sharply in January and February.

[aleman] 04/4/2017 12:52

Annualised auto sales for US in March fell to 16.5m despite hige incentives. This compares to 17.3m forecasted. Blip or start of recession?

[aleman] 03/4/2017 10:19

The weekly loss of 100s of uk retail jobs continues - but is it getting worse?

[aleman] 01/4/2017 12:25

Margin debt jumped 22% from the end of 1999 before peaking in March 2000 at $278.5 billion, the same month stocks peaked. In 2007, margin debt shot up to $381.4 billion in July, three months before stocks topped. Margin debt now? A record $528.2bn. What could possibly go wrong?



Rising mortgage defaults become newsworthy in Australia.



Rising insolvencies in Canada

[aleman] 31/3/2017 18:34

Yeah - US really needs more rate rises.



Nine retailers filed for bankruptcy in Q1 to match the total for all of 2016.

The industry is on pace to see the highest number of bankructcy filings since 2009, according to data from AlixPartners.

[aleman] 31/3/2017 16:09

Revised down a whisker today. This was 3.5% 2 months ago.

[aleman] 30/3/2017 10:37

Even more charts for the US auto lending bust starting to kick in (remember that there are similar trends in the UK where you can find data):

[aleman] 30/3/2017 10:18

Retail getting worse?


Getting out of weaker shopping centres while they still can?



Brand saved but jobs go.



Another chain in trouble



Too late to float, Q3 sales -5%



Going ... going ...



Gone?



Sports Direct recruitment agency struggling



Hanging on.



Inflation - poundland to sell more over £1

[aleman] 30/3/2017 09:09

Healey's statement said the settlement with Santander would provide $16 million in "consumer relief" for the 2,000 car owners affected.

So how many $billion would that be across the entire USA and millions of subprime car purchases? Some very big penalties coming, I think, besides the market tanking as standards are tightened.

[aleman] 30/3/2017 08:43

It looks like the UK could be building up troubles in the credit card market due to interest free teasers.

[aleman] 30/3/2017 08:41

Is the US subprime auto crisis properly kicking off? The largest securitizer of auto loans is fined for knowingly extending unaffordable loans to subprime car buyers.



A joint investigation by the attorney general's offices of Delaware and Massachusetts found that Santander signed off on numerous loans to people with poor credit without evidence that those customers would have the wherewithal to make payments.

"In fact, Santander predicted that many of the loans would default, and allegedly knew that the reported incomes, which were used to support the loan applications submitted to the company by car dealers, were incorrect and often inflated," a news release by Healey said.

[aleman] 29/3/2017 15:43

UK business insolvencies forecasted to rise in 2017.

[aleman] 29/3/2017 10:33

Mortgage bond defaults creep up.



US auto loans of all grades are defaulting more but are subprime in this downturn lower quality than last time?

[aleman] 28/3/2017 08:01

Ostensibly good annual results from S&U (car loans) with revenue up 34% and earnings up 28% but impaired loans up to 3 month past due rose from 6.3% to 8.9%. 3-6 months went from 0.9% to 1.1% and over 6 months went from 1.3% to 1.8%. Total impaired goes from 8.4% to 11.8%. I'd be worried if my company was expanding so hard into a marketplace where delinqueencies rates were up 40% in relative terms and 85% in absolute terms in just a year! It looks like a train wreck and what is it saying about the outlook for UK borrowers and consumers?

[aleman] 25/3/2017 12:53

Thank for the comments and link.

[lefrene] 24/3/2017 14:52

It could be quite interesting if the car trade has a crunch. The concept of renting money in order to contract rent a car presumably draws in people who previously could not afford car loans? I wonder how many car users as a % of the general population are skating on very thin ice?

[ironstorm] 24/3/2017 14:21

And don't forget historically the car trade usually leads the market up and down. Watch out for a plethora of great deals as they try to keep volumes high to shift stock. Too much buoyancy for now but . . .

[lefrene] 24/3/2017 11:39

Thanks for the articles Aleman, some friends here in the motor trade have been telling me of their rising concerns over the past 12 months. I doubt it will be as bad as a housing bust, but it's going to hurt.

[s2lowner] 24/3/2017 10:43

Re the state of uk car loans