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[aleman] 05/5/2017 07:55

The USA already looks to be in recession, though. Smallcap corporate results are missing forecasts all over the place and there have been a few bigger ones in Q1 earnings season. Restaurants and retailers are going bust in much bigger numbers than last year and the car market looks to be developing considerable downwrd momentum. Other areas struggling are financials, telecoms and pharma. Now energy and mining is starting to look dodgy again as oil and copper drop. I think it's too late for the Trump changes to turn the sinking ship. I think we are not so bad yet but seem to be on course for the same rocks. I think we are catching the US up, though, and might be reported as going into recession together. Add in a Oz housing bubble bursting and nascent slowdowns in India, China, and parts of Latin America and it might indeed be seen as a global downturn - but US already looks to be there. I just can't understand why the Us indices are not tumbling. Soft surveys are good but harder coporate news is getting dire.

(Puerto Rico looks to have gone bankrupt/defaulted after rescue talks failed. I think that messes up a load of US pension funds.)

[ironstorm] 04/5/2017 22:08

It certainly seems that the consumer is reaching the point of exhaustion- and with tightening happening across the pond recession looks baked in.

I am slightly of the opinion that Trumponomics could still keep us (well the US) going with a deal on Obamacare and Taxation certainly possible. I think there is more to go and that could last another 6 months.

[topvest] 04/5/2017 18:03

Thanks for your informative posts Aleman. For what it's worth I also think that we are on the brink of a global recession. Maybe 6-12m before it becomes apparent to the man on the street, but after 10 years of growth it's time. Hopefully not as deep as the last one!

Begbies should bounce to £1 if this happens so it's a good contracyclical play.

[aleman] 04/5/2017 14:07

The B of E says banks' unsecured lending in Q2 is projected to tighten at a rate not seen since the last recession, after already seeing some significant tightening in Q1. (See Chart 2.) Two consecutive negative quarters has not happened since the last recession.

[aleman] 04/5/2017 12:37

Start of UK recession or just a car tax blip? April YoY -18.6%. Private sales -28.4%, YTD private sales are -2.2% in line with much other weakening consumer spending.

[aleman] 04/5/2017 10:31

After Molsen Coors, ABinBev results were held back by North American beer volumes down 4.4% in Q1. Now it could just be weather for brewers but too many sectors are missing forecasts and reporting recessionary numbers for it not to have consequences on job and investment/capex markets. There are some strong performances elsewhere around the globe, though. Could the rest of the world ignore a US recession? (On the other hand, noises coming out of China are starting to indicate a possible slowdown and it is a bigger global trader.)



Lots more US small caps missing forecasts overnight, especially in the financial sector.

[aleman] 04/5/2017 08:06

S A sharp slowdown in bricks and mortar like for like at Next to -8.1% in Q1 suggest further trouble ahead for some other retailers with low internet presence.

[aleman] 02/5/2017 17:16

Jan-April US sales: Ford -5%, Chrysler -8%, GM -1%. This is after US small business confidence and consumer confidence jumped after Trump's election. Confidence is so high that individuals and businesses have reduced car purchases .....

[aleman] 02/5/2017 16:27

Big 3 shares fall again as predicted US auto recession gets under way with second month of bad sales, leaving excessive stocks

[aleman] 28/4/2017 13:33

US Q1 GDP first estimatee below consensus at 0.7% annualised.

[aleman] 28/4/2017 11:11

US nearly into recession? Atlanta Fed reduces Q1 GDP forecast again to only 0.2% annualised.

[aleman] 28/4/2017 11:09

1st estimate UK Q1 GDP came in under forecast at 0.3%.

[aleman] 28/4/2017 10:54

Corporate insolvencies rose 4.5% in Q1 in England and Wales compared to Q4 2016. They were up 5.3% on a year ago.



Personal insolvencies in England and Wales were up 15.7% y-o-y in Q1 and have now been on a rising trend for 7 quarters. (Scotland up 18%) The personal insolvency trend seems typical of a significant slowdown or early recession and suggests the 3 consecutive rises in corporate insolvencies might be extended further. (Scottish GDP figs reported 0.2% contraction in Q4.)

[aleman] 26/4/2017 14:37

Burger King Q1 US sales -2.2% after +4.2% last year. Popeye's Q1 -0.4% after +1.0% last year. Tim Hortons Canadian sales -0.2% after +5.6% last year.



That's some slowdown in North America.

[aleman] 26/4/2017 11:37

If you check out production tax revenues in the governmnt borrowing report, it has fallen year on year for 3 consecutive months in Q1 after a rising trend since the last recession. UK tax-take suggests recession started in Q1. (Table PSA6B in the pdf file)

[aleman] 26/4/2017 09:58

Badly-run company or US consumers short of money?



Bad numbers from Capital One



Also held back by rising provisions

[aleman] 25/4/2017 14:08

Guidance at Ryder dropped nearly 20% as deteriorating US car market hits outlook.



Footfall down 5% at US restaurants, Chilli's and Maggiano's

[aleman] 25/4/2017 11:54

Yet another class of US loans with significantly rising delinquenices:

[aleman] 25/4/2017 10:34

Whitbread posted fairly good results but increasing numbers of outlets and international trading hid some of the weaker UK trends. LfL revenues at Costa turned negative and Premier Inns LfL turned negative outside London.

[aleman] 25/4/2017 10:17

I see CNCT (newpapers, magazines, parcels) describe their markets' conditions as "more challenging" after slightly disappointing interim results.

[ironstorm] 25/4/2017 08:05

Carpetright always used to be a good barometer of the state of the economy. It used to lead the economy into and out of recessions.

Not sure if it still acts in that way. We will see.