Begbies Traynor Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 21/7/2017 10:13

finkie - I post the same posts on a couple of other threads where such issues are actually discussed. I want to find somewhere where I can get discussion to test my opinions and have been a little disappointed you don't get it here. Maybe there are no economic optimists here and we all think similarly. I'm not praying for gloom - I'd be happy for things to muddle on as recently - but I believe tough times are coming and I warn people. I do it with my friends and family who run businesses or have big mortgages or considering job changes, as well. Those running businesses tend to concur that the calmer markets are unlikely to last but I think they follow the Brexit narrative, whereas I follow credit markets, money supply and savings patterns, etc.. I think recession was coming regardless of Brexit.

I don't know whether we will have a mild rolling recession - since the growth before it has been mediocre - or a run to the hills banking collapse because debt is so high and buffers smaller than ever. Arguably fashion, supermarkets, energy and engineering have already had a recession, cut costs, and are recovering as other areas slow - or is it that just the beginning of something more serious for all sectors? Will low wage rises mean fewer job losses and more modest adjustments? Very few people seem to want to discuss it, though. The general attitude seems to be not to see the bad news or pretend it won't lead anywhere. Maybe they don't want to change their style or don't know how to but I'm surprised how adamant some are that the party will continue and think I am some kind of permabear. I was optimistic from the end of 2008 until 2015. Then I was edgy for a year and have been downright pessimistic since spring 2016 when credit markets started to show deterioration.

It feels very much like a repeat of spring 2006 thorugh 2007 to me in terms of my contrast with other investors' attitudes. I was gloomy then and few people agreed or wanted to discuss it. They were all too busy investigating BTL possibilities and addicted to margin trading/spread betting profits. There seems to be an in-built bias amongst investors that whatever we had recently will continue. I hope it does. I don't wish the pain of another recession on anyone but I'm convinced it will be with us fairly soon.

[bonio10000] 21/7/2017 08:42

I prefer gold - I don't see BEG as doing that well.

It just isn't that important in the IP market.

[ironstorm] 21/7/2017 08:27

Part of my insurance policy. So I don't want financial doom as that will hurt.

This will help ensure I am not dead and buried.

Don't forget the last part of the bull market is usually the biggest - and i don't think we are there yet - despite all the bearishness.

But this can do well from a slow ramp up too from current volumes - might even be win:win.

[bonio10000] 21/7/2017 08:13

Well - I prefer it for my gold to go up 300%, but similar.

And all those blind to it will deserve the crash.

[finkie] 21/7/2017 07:31

Joyful thread people praying for financial doom so their begbies shares go up 20% 😆

[aleman] 20/7/2017 11:55

If talks fail



If they don't



The increasingly gloomy media spin is likely to push us into recession anyway - although tightening bank credit already tends to make it look nailed-on.

[aleman] 19/7/2017 21:21

AmEx Q2 results were significantly affected by a $121m (26%) rise in provisions. International consumer provisions were up $6m (8%) but US consumer provisions were up $108m - up a whopping 46% from the same quarter last year.

[aleman] 18/7/2017 13:00

Largest rise in CMBS delinquencies since 2009 as they jump from 3.50% in May to 3.72% in June.

[aleman] 17/7/2017 23:11

Average price down 10% in 3 months.

[aleman] 17/7/2017 22:55

Canadian housing bust starts?

[aleman] 17/7/2017 12:49

UK [business] insolvencies have been rising since Q3 of 2016 and are forecast to increase 6% this year and 8% next year. Business failures are expected to be concentrated in consumer-facing sectors like retail and accommodation and those that depend on imported materials like construction.




Irish start-ups are easing and insolvencies are up 13% in H1.

[aleman] 14/7/2017 11:11

Th B of E Consumer Credit Survey inicates household secured credit availability to fall in Q3. Unsecured household credit availability to fall for third quarter in Q3. Household demand for secured loans to rise in Q3. Corporate lending demand to fall in Q3. Spreads on household lending to rise in Q3 (more expensive). Corporate spreads to remain flat. Interest free periods on credit cards rose in Q2 but expected to fall in Q3. Defaults on unsecured lending roise significantly in Q2. Credit card defaults expected to rise further in Q3. Business loans defaults fell in Q2 but expected to rise in Q3. Secured lending supply at less than 10% and 25% housing equity is to reduce. Percent of secured loans approved expected to fall although demand expected to rise..Defaults rose, interest rates rose and supply decreased for unsecured lending in Q2. Same again expected for Q3. Interest free periods rose in Q2 but expected to decrease in Q3.
Not much change on business side but approvals are expected to fall as commercial property prices ease. Defaults are expected to increase in Q3 after falls in Q2.




This is a bad survey for the economy. It is showing a much sharper tightening of loan offers into Q3 on rising defaults and rising rates for riskier loans. If expectations prove reasonably accurate, expect the stockmarket (domestic shares at least) to fall further as the economy drops into recession (The economy might have already dropped into recession in Q2 but some sectors seem to be getting a short-term boost from "staycations" which help GDP slightly as they alter the import export balance favourably. This gain is not likely to persist long.)

[aleman] 14/7/2017 09:42

UK house sales instructions fall for 16th consecutive month.

[aleman] 13/7/2017 13:10

Canaccord says 3.7p EPS in current year. IC says Speculative Buy.

[lefrene] 12/7/2017 14:35

Always intriguing when one party wants 'in' in size and another party wants 'out' in size. One wonders about the individual view points at the time. Or does somebody just need a lump of cash for other purposes, so a rising market is there to sell into?