Begbies Traynor Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 07/10/2017 15:01

UK van registrations continue to fall, suggesting UK sole traders and small businesses are starting to feel the pinch. (See graph)

[aleman] 04/10/2017 08:20

Default rates at Zopa are running higher than the last recession. Their 2008 issue loans saw 4.20% defaults. With 40% repaid, 2016 issue defaults are running at 4.27%. With 10% repaid, 2017 issue are projected to reach 5.30%.



I'm surprised this not hitting the economy more. D and E grade borrowers should be seeing less supply and higher rates, regardless of what the B of E does. (If projected defaults for 2018 reach 5% higher than 2011, then they have to charge 5% higher rates to maintain targetted returns. If lower subprime loan issuance slows the economy, defaults will move up the borrower grades as some A to C borrowers lose jobs. This does not seem to be heppening yet, surprisingly.)

[aleman] 03/10/2017 10:45

48 offices compares to 44 in February 7th.

[aleman] 03/10/2017 10:15

Markit PMI joins ONS in indicating UK construction might have gone into recesssion through the summer.

[aleman] 02/10/2017 07:52

Isolated or sign of a worsening trend?

[topvest] 29/9/2017 19:52

Think the general trend is towards recession. Whether it actually happens this winter is anyone's guess. Needs the US market to collapse before we get a global recession. Its probably overdue, but what will cause it?
Still we have the Bank of England saying they might raise interest rates soon. Never has someone talked about raising interest rates so much for so long and done...absolutely nothing!

[aleman] 29/9/2017 10:26

UK house prices ease to +2.0%. London falling. Q2 GDP revised down to annual +1.5% from +1.7%. July Index of services -0.2%. £ falls so FTSE100 rises.



The UK is looking more and more like an economy flirting with recession. Services make up nearly 80% of GDP and the negative July covers a period when many service industries were supposed to be benefitting from foreign tourists and staycations. This stimulus should start to drop out soon, as we have seen with recent pub, restaurant and hospitality company updates. The rising £ and oil price of late won't help most non-services industry either.

[aleman] 21/9/2017 07:26

Well, that update is conservative to the point of being enigmatic.

I reckon the two important sentences are :

The Group has traded in line with our expectations in the first quarter of the current financial year.

Overall, we continue to anticipate growing earnings in the new financial year as we look for further opportunities to develop and enhance the business, both organically and through selective acquisitions.

Still, I suppose zero change in expectations beats bad news.

[aleman] 19/9/2017 10:39

Chart looks a bit different, today, doesn't it? But what is driving it? The rise looks a bit steep just on speculation of a satisfactory trading update. I'm wondering if there is some trade news out there that I have missed. Would the announcement of Toys R Us going into Chapter 11 lift sentiment so much?

[aleman] 18/9/2017 15:55

Wakey, wakey, ADVFN. BEG has ticked up 5 times to 64.25/65.75 and ADVFN shows nowt.

[aleman] 18/9/2017 14:18

Looking perky ahead of the update. ADVFN not showing it but the mid price has ticked up 3 times today and is at a new high.

[ny boy] 14/9/2017 13:11

I have been accumulating

[aleman] 14/9/2017 11:03

I discount mining and energy warnings; they are always volatile. That has been leaving 2 or 3 lots of bad news per day, typically, in recent months, which itself is up on last year. Today there are a dozen which have seen significant share price falls of mostly 10%+. UK plc is struggling. (Not to be confused with all the global stocks in the FTSE100.)

[topvest] 12/9/2017 20:51

yes, looking more and more like the uk is going to have a tough autumn and winter.

[aleman] 12/9/2017 10:41

Looking perky ahead of next week's update. I can only see it being positive, given the deteriorating corporate and economic news we have been getting in the UK.

[aleman] 29/8/2017 12:28

Have you noticed the difference between plans and execution recently? The only way we will save the economy is to get the big parties to adopt plans for its destruction! :-)

More seriously, the shares are up over 20% in two months so a bit of profit-taking on a sore day for the market is to be expected. It will be interesting to see if we get buying appear below 60p again in the run up to the trading update.

[runthejoules] 29/8/2017 12:09

Down 4% today - blame Labour and their reckless plans for a soft Brexit that won't destroy the economy! Normally I'd be pleased to see BEG down as it would mean my other stocks were up... not today though :0(

[aleman] 20/8/2017 23:15

Overall, more than 63,000 businesses in Yorkshire were deemed to be at higher than normal risk of​ ​insolvency, a month on month rise of 3.4​ per cent​ ...

This is a rise of over 26% from the 49813 quoted for the same survey in December.

[aleman] 17/8/2017 11:16

Retail sales only +1.3% Y-oY as food rises and non-food falls. It has a recessionary look about it. Lots of stuff was weak, with books and second hand goods up (as in 2009) and automotive fuel sales fell again - this time without the price increases of last year. Sectors data are always volatile, though. It would need a few months to confirm such recessionary-type trends. It does suggest, however, that Q3 has kicked off worse than Q2.



Remember that June construction and industrial output also suggested Q2 GDP is likely to be revised down. I think the recession is upon us, despite the temporary staycation/tourism boost this year from the weak £. That wearing off will be a slight headwind for the year ahead.

[aleman] 16/8/2017 18:02

R3 report 20% rise in businesses at higher than normal risk of insolvency since the start of the year in East Mids.

[edmundshaw] 15/8/2017 09:23

Record results from car seller/leaser MMH this morning, including like-for-like growth as well as acquisition-based ; but against a falling overall market.