Batm Advanced Communicat... Share Discussion Threads

[echoridge] 30/3/2022 18:10

Enismore would have sold 'borrowed' shares that a specialist ('prime') broker would have secured for them. The 'lender' of the shares gets a small fee for the period that they loan their shares and can recall them from Enismore, with a bit of notice, whenever they like if they wish to sell them. Very very very common activity.

[picsous] 30/3/2022 12:17

Understood echo, thanks for the clarification.
If they bought back 200,000 share per day, 10 days would cover it and they would still be quids in.

But it would seem that I don't really understand how shorting works for institutions. The only shorting I am familiar with is via a CFD or SpreadBet account.

[echoridge] 30/3/2022 11:16

I thought I gave you a possible explanation. They very likely got shut out on the index rebalance and are, for now, seeking alternative ways to find blocks bc going into the market for over 2m shares is gonna take a long time. No goal, just an old fashioned screw up.

[picsous] 30/3/2022 10:26

Yes, but logic dictates that if one was short from 90p for instance, cashing in at 50 would be sufficient, surely. So what's the goal here?

[echoridge] 30/3/2022 10:18

well picsous, both things can be true and Enismore can still be seen to be making a mistake. One simple way to square the circle is that the Fund missed the 'liquidity event' of the index rebalance and are now a bit stranded for a way to buy back over 2m shares. Now you could call that 'stupid' if you like, but more likely the result of a smart guy or 2 making a bit of dough on a trading idea (they've clearly been short from the higher double digits or higher) and letting it run a bit too long. Execution error. Happens even to the smartest traders.....

[picsous] 30/3/2022 10:05

The Enismore short stands and the people holding that short position are not stupid, there is a reason why it stands.

[echoridge] 30/3/2022 06:54

All very true, fse, except of course that you can remove a further 1.2% as Lombard - after some epic faffing about with its RNSs - reported very recently that they had increased their stake to 28% (which I believe can go higher still as I've written before). If we add in paulisi's comments (while making sure not to forget the 0,5% short with Enismore which appears to still be out there, but is increasingly difficult to explain and so is becoming something of an obsession for me), and I think we've made a pretty compelling case for a solid base from which the share price to really push on from these slowly improving levels, once the buyback begins.

[fse] 29/3/2022 21:40

So thats 34% not held by institutions plus I would speculate that a very large number of shares held by PI's that are not in the mood to sell especially after riding through the last period and still in the frame.
Not very insightful like echo posts but enough to lead me to believe that if they start moving up coupled with any company buying ..... wheres the stock going to come from at these prices?

[fse] 29/3/2022 20:12

For reference.

Equities
Vote Quantity Free-Float Company-owned shares Total Float
Stock A 1 440,534,124 340,580,624 77.3% 0 0.0% 77.3%
Shareholders
Name Equities %
Lombard Odier Asset Management (Europe) Ltd. 118,014,962 26.8%
Zvi Marom 96,794,500 22.0%
Herald Investment Management Ltd. 18,854,861 4.28%
Hargreaves Lansdown Fund Managers Ltd. 14,713,839 3.34%
Harel Mutual Funds Ltd. 10,771,228 2.45%
Canaccord Genuity Wealth Ltd. 7,830,340 1.78%
Meitav Tachlit Mutual Funds Ltd. 6,770,403 1.54%
Migdal Mutual Funds Ltd. 5,941,681 1.35%
BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Ltd. 4,918,234 1.12%
Psagot Mutual Funds Ltd. 3,518,634 0.80

[paulisi] 29/3/2022 14:23

I'm not selling, in fact when the new tax year starts, I'm likely to add and hide away in my new ISA allowance.

[picsous] 29/3/2022 12:40

They will have to push the price closer to £2 before they'll get my stock.

[paulisi] 29/3/2022 10:59

Yes - I would agree.MM's are forcing the price up on no volume, so they must have a shortage of stock.So either the shorter are trying to reduce/close or the buyback is about to start

[echoridge] 29/3/2022 10:17

Interesting data point (I think): a friend and market professional loved the story at BATM and bought a decent position on my reccy a week and a half ago. By yesterday, he still had not received his shares in his account; in market parlance, his purchase was still 'failing'. He thought that was kind of curious. Normally these days, such extended fails are unusual and generally reserved for situations like with Covid stocks 2 years ago where multiple shares experienced rapid, vertiginous rises on suddenly massive volumes and the various City firms' 'back offices' then find they cannot cope with the surge in trading so the daily process of 'matching' buy and sells in such names becomes chaotic and as a result, cash and securities often do not 'settle' in the normal 3-day period and sometimes therefore, buyers may not receive their shares for a period of time (note that the average PI will often never know about such 'fails' as their brokers would work to rectify it behind the scenes and would never tell their client unless of course the PI for some reason decides to sell their shares soon after buying them!). However, with a share like BATM, which until recently, had been on a slow, steady decline, a fail of over a week is quite unusual. What does/can this mean? I'm not sure of course, but it can be an indication of a much more general 'lack of stock' in the market. In other words, the market maker that my friend's order eventually reached may well have sold my friend's representative the shares and thus gone 'short' for the rest of the day while he went out into the market looking to cover those shares. So far, so normal. However, if that MM was unable to find a block big enough and at the right price (ie., below where he shorted them to my friend) he naturally would NOT have been able to buy them back profitably and then deliver them to my friend's account on time, causing the 'fail.' As that fail has persisted, we could then assume that that MM has still been unable to find the shares and is unwilling - for now - to buy them back UNprofitably as the price has slowly risen. Finally, this theory only really becomes relevant if my scenario is then repeated across many bargains and many market makers; ie., in addition to the Enismore short which apparently remains outstanding, it is possible that there is a more general 'market' shortage of stock in play here as we approach the beginning of the buyback.....

[the crypt] 28/3/2022 20:26

Pauli's I I think you are right - you are spot on - I think you are anyway - but I cannot be sure - but hey ... let's hope so

[fse] 28/3/2022 19:55

Waiting for the line up of speakers for 2022
Link is 2019. Guess who !

[echoridge] 28/3/2022 17:59

cumnor - pls see my previous posts. I'm confident It will start in the next few days. No one is f-ing up anything. Really uncalled for....

[paulisi] 28/3/2022 17:55

Market makers forcing the price up on no volume.Buyback to come, announcements to come.Only way is up

[cumnor] 28/3/2022 16:19

Not sure what's stopping them with the buyback at this stage-51p seems to me a good deal....

Or will Zvi again f..k things up and only start it when the share price is higher, so getting less bang for the buck?

Frustrating.

[the crypt] 25/3/2022 14:30

Very observant Paul ISI

[paulisi] 25/3/2022 11:56

No volume whatsoever this morning.

[the crypt] 25/3/2022 10:26

Nicely composed post mr echoridge. Well reasoned!

[echoridge] 25/3/2022 09:09

yes wizz. I threw out 50% to be a bit more conservative, but regardless of whether its 40 or 50%, free float in this name is particularly low (and set to get lower of course as the buyback progresses!) and that is certainly a major oversight by the market re this buyback. As news unfolds, as the Ador presentation in early May comes ever nearer, even if the share price has rallied to 60/70p, new buyers could easily begin to appear and THAT kind of additional demand, added to the now daily 25%-of-the-volume buyer in the market, would quickly strain an already tight liquidity picture and could well drive the share price materially higher as a result.