Batm Advanced Communicat... Share Discussion Threads

[wizzkid211] 25/3/2022 09:01

ECHO.
Agree with what you say, but I think that the free float is about 40% and that does not leave many shares without a good home, 50p is NOT about to stay for long.

[echoridge] 25/3/2022 08:58

See, it's not 'optimism', carpet. I'm sharing facts that perhaps you and certainly the market generally, have not yet considered. Based on those facts, the balance of probability is that this sized buyback in this particular company, with its positive liquidity profile, deep undervaluation and known as well as unknown catalysts coming in the near- and medium-term, that the buyback alone should and likely will push the share price higher. If it does not, then it will be for reason(s) that I have not yet thought of and not because of any notion of historic comparisons to other buybacks you may be familiar with.

[car1pet] 25/3/2022 08:50

I like your optimism Echo. As you say we shall see.

[echoridge] 25/3/2022 08:21

Couple of reasons you're mistaken, carpet. First and most importantly, 10% is a more material buyback level than the 'normal' you're referencing. Having a motivated buyer every day of 25% of any day's turnover will have a profound effect over certainly the medium to longer term. However, this impact is going to be enhanced significantly as the most common reason the impact of a big buyback is sometimes muted - ie.,selling supply often rises to meet the increased demand - is way less likely in this case. We have a near-30% shareholder, (who may be able to go to as high as 45% because of Israeli rules), who has been a massive supporter of the Company over many years and has been most recently buying more, and along with other material shareholders like management who are not sellers for all intents and purposes, plus the short seller who has not covered: the 'free float' in this Company is severely impaired, putting it at little more than 50% by my calculation. As a result of these 2 forces working together, plus the expectation of KNOWN news coming, I maintain that this coming buyback will indeed have a real and positive impact on the share price, even in the very short-term. We shall see.

[car1pet] 24/3/2022 15:55

Don't get too excited about the buyback. It is a daily process, usually, and there is an RNS the next day to inform how many shares were bought and if they were placed into Treasury. The price won't rise dramatically because of the buyback.
To get the price to rise the company needs to start delivering positive newsflow. Proof of concepts and partnerships unless they generate profit are interesting but won't shift the dial significantly.

[fse] 24/3/2022 14:11

At the risk of being repetitious its is accurate that Ador are presenting at a very prestigious event in May and will be unveiling the latest RCA based diagnostic platform that can identify simultaneously a large range of pathogens but also match the appropriate treatment to the condition. This is new age medicine and right out of the realms of what used to be science fiction.

This is what was announced.
The added investment in Ador was made end of January 2022
BATM Advanced Communications Ltd (LSE:BVC, OTC:BTAVF) announced that it is contributing US$4mln to a US$10mln follow-on investment in Ador Diagnostics Ltd, which will increase its stake in the associate company to 37.21% from 36.7%.

As far as valuation goes this is at the end of the day implied or notional value of some $800M.
Is that realistic ?
Point here is that thats what was agreed on and paid whether we agree with it or not.
As a comparison I held shares in Genmark Diagnostics which has some interesting IP for certain which is largely unrealized, nevertheless it was passed on for close to 1bn.

I could not make out where Ador were presenting from Zvi interview.
If it is Milken that would make sense but it is undeniably big bamboo.
Added link


This is where ST and I came up with the sum of the parts valuation @160p some time ago so you can add the notional value of this IP onto the top of that figure.
We dont know for certain if BATM will convert all of the IP it has to meaningful established value but .............

You should add Celare and the Cyber to the above as its probably the fastest growing area at the moment largely through induced panic just like the whole Covid pandemic.

Any rate thats my take on the scene and it largely mirrors comments above.

NB.... Edited for addition of content.

[echoridge] 24/3/2022 11:24

You'll notice I was careful to write 'imputed', but nevertheless, BATM did pay $4m (of a $10m total) for a further 0.5%, in the most recent fundraise. That's an implied value for the business of $800m. I'm not saying the share price should reflect that yet, but it is a useful data point, especially as others stumped up the balance of $6m

[paulisi] 24/3/2022 11:05

Where do you get $800m from?This is the new lab kit, which they are not expecting significant revenues for another couple of years after proof of concept.The potential is huge. It is just not factored into the price until their see contracts coming through.It's a bit like edgility at Telco, which is 85% profit and is only just hitting the bottom line and is growing exponentially.BATM have three huge growth areas - Edgility, Natlabs and the Celitron units(according to Zvi)

[rob1ng] 24/3/2022 10:59

Yes I hold TrmrThey have been in share buy backs for a long time and report who's bought what and when on their behalf,the share price doesn't move up much ,will watch this space

[echoridge] 24/3/2022 10:52

Here's something for gb then: BATM-Ador are presenting what they feel is going to be ground-breaking/disruptive diagnostic tech platform at the Milken Conference, the world's 2nd most prestigious medical-related yearly event, in early May. Ador is a business whose imputed value was $800m from the most recent fundraise, making BATM's now-37.21% stake 'worth' £226m, at least on that metric, near as dammit covering the entire current market cap all by itself. What happens to that relationship if the reception to BATM's platform is anywhere near what's being mooted I wonder? gb, anything from you? (fun fact: entry to this conference costs the hoi polloi over $20k. That's serious lettuce).

[echoridge] 24/3/2022 10:21

oooh, ooooh, another little thing for everyone but gb: Enismore, for some crazy reason, do not seem to have covered a short that is going to get around 25% more difficult to cover starting sometime next week.

[echoridge] 24/3/2022 10:19

I guess one thing I am also saying indirectly for any punters reading this: you basically have a couple of days left to buy this in the low 50s!

[echoridge] 24/3/2022 10:14

if gb will permit, paulisi: one rule which is unbreakable is that a corporate buyer must report ANY activity immediately next day. That's why we know it hasn't started. As I wrote, I doubt any volume today is the Company as it likely to start next week for the reason I mentioned, though anything is possible. As for your arithmetic question, yes, that's correct.

[paulisi] 24/3/2022 10:11

So if average volume is around 1m shares per day then 250k is the max buyback per day.There was just a 150k buy gone through this morning - start of the buyback?

[echoridge] 24/3/2022 10:09

gb gb. please don't comment on that which you understand nothing. this is valuable information.

[gbenson1] 24/3/2022 10:07

EchoEcho, please spare us your thoughts on the finer details of the buyback, the company will post an RNS when it is ready..

[echoridge] 24/3/2022 09:57

I will write a more extensive post on the manner and scale of the buyback if I have the time, but a couple quick, important points: 1. It is correct (from a couple of days ago) that the buyback permission-ing extends to the Israeli line as well(perhaps with the Company buying shares in each of the markets on alternating days?). The reason I wrongly said otherwise is that capital returns like this are almost unheard of in the Israeli market so I stupidly assumed the buyback would be restricted to the UK line. That would be clearly untenable however. (though it still may create some 'arbitrage' opportunities between the 2 market prices for capable hedge funds!); 2. At last check, the Company's 'default' activity on most days will be up to 25% of the day's volume and at a price no higher than 105% of the 5 day average VWAP.

[echoridge] 24/3/2022 09:34

A bit of patience needed here. Buyback has not started yet, obviously. I expect early next week as execs have been travelling apparently. This will have a significant impact in my view, not to mention the newsflow coming in the next 6 weeks....

[sandy789] 24/3/2022 09:10

There appear to be numerous trades of 25,000 blocks over last couple of days. ????

[dds14] 24/3/2022 07:04

Underwhelming isn't the word so far...

[wizzkid211] 22/3/2022 17:27

PICSOUS.I think you are right...I did not see the following!

purchases are subject to the absolute discretion of the management of the
Company, which may decide not to perform any purchases, or to purchase any
number of shares within the limits set in this resolution, at once or in separate
purchases or not at all, on the London Stock Exchange or on the Tel-Aviv Stock
Exchange or on both, in whatever manner the management considers fit, taking
into account whatever business, financial, tax, regulatory, market and other
considerations as the management sees fit, all within the rules and limits set in
this resolution and in any applicable law, rule and regulation.
ITS VERY CLEAR NOW.
THANKS

[picsous] 22/3/2022 16:46

echoridge: "no. this is only permitted in UK"

So what does that mean? "purchases are subject to the absolute discretion of the management of the Company, ......, on the London Stock Exchange or on the Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange or on both"

[wizzkid211] 22/3/2022 16:33

Picsous Its just a formality to extend.