Batm Advanced Communicat... Share Discussion Threads

[car1pet] 22/3/2022 16:26

In my experience of buybacks what happens is that they occur towards the end of day and often comprise large numbers of smallish trades. You know when they have happened because the next day there is an RNS stating how many shares were bought back and often there is a breakdown of all the trades that make up the buyback for that day.
To my knowledge the buyback hasn't started yet. Once it starts it normally happens every day.

[picsous] 22/3/2022 16:18

It can't take years:
"The authority will expire on the earlier of 30 June 2023 and the Company's 2023 annual general meeting."

[fse] 22/3/2022 16:09

Yes it was mentioned before, kudos to you, that this would/could take one heck of a long time to complete. As you say 44,000,000 / 100,000
You brought it up and I thought WTF .... how can this play out

[wizzkid211] 22/3/2022 15:54

wizzkid211 14 Feb '22 - 12:18 - 19396 of 19743 Edit
0 1 0
SANDY
The 44m shares buy back may take years to buy but even if they buy back just 100000 shares pair day that would have a very positive effect on the share price and scare off any would be shorter...

[fse] 22/3/2022 15:32

>echo.... OK but I am assuming that due to the lack of follow on buyers the market can be controlled to a degree on low volumes. If momentum returned then it would be another situation.
If we drift back to the @500,000 shares typical trading volume and BATM start buying say 100,000 a day and they plan on buying 40M shares its going to take a very long time at that rate.
Also remember that number of shares traded comprises of buys and sells.
So 100,000 shares bought would be 40% of the buys that day.
That in itself will turbocharge the momentum !!!!

I must admit to having a lot of trouble getting my head around how this is going to play out. If there is a point out there its clearly getting missed.
Appreciate the input. And I dont mind being told if I am off base with any of this.
Its a discussion board.

[echoridge] 22/3/2022 14:44

Corporates have to use a broker like anyone else in a name like BATM, so you start in figuring out when and at what price management is in the market by seeing if one of the brokers they are likely to use are active on any particular day, etc. Of course, as I said, by the next day or 2 you'll know if you were right because the Company will be very, very careful to expeditiously report their activity, as per the rules. That's it. Just a little process of elimination plus some semi-aggressive snooping around....

[fse] 22/3/2022 13:30

Institutions are scrambling to get their security systems up to scratch. This as already commented is a part of BATM that the company anticipated growing strongly and that was before the Russian invasion.
Individually and as an integral part of Edgility, BATM/Celare/Telco are very active in this market.



Re the buyback. BATM have the discretion as to how they want to handle this and when. How can you tell if they have started buying...... and how do they avoid spiking the price.
Thanks to echo and others for their explanations.

I am certainly more than aware of the practice of tree shaking but this seems more like a Tsunami.

[wizzkid211] 22/3/2022 11:15

THANKS ECH0.

[echoridge] 22/3/2022 10:45

no. this is only permitted in UK

[wizzkid211] 22/3/2022 10:11

BTW I tried to find out but had no luck!

[wizzkid211] 22/3/2022 09:59

Does anyone knows if BATM can buy back in TASE with Israeli shekels?

[emeraldzebra] 22/3/2022 09:55

And you make a very good point about the roll of market makers. It took me a while to understand that fear is much bigger than greed in share trading - and so by marking a price down - they often induce selling by weak interests as you describe above, and are thereby able to get 'cheap' shares on to their books.

[emeraldzebra] 22/3/2022 09:45

Echo - many thanks indeed. I think you have hit the nail on the head. I would hope that it's now very difficult indeed to identify a measure by which these could possibly be seen as 'expensive'!...but the 're-rate' in the tech sector has not been at all helpful either i guess. Nonetheless, now hoping for a gradual/solidly based improvement here.

[echoridge] 22/3/2022 09:21

Emerald - the 'answer' is that age-old circular logic unique to the stock market: it's likely NOT those that remain 'willing' to sell down here, but as yet, a lack of new buyers willing to get involved. As long as the shares trade a couple of hundred thousand shares a day (or often far less), small legacy holders who are not nearly as informed as those on this board, who are furthermore bored, disappointed, frustrated, etc., will continue to hit the bid in a few thousand multiple times a day, and unless and until new buyers start to appear that are ambitious for the upside in the share price, market makers will continue to overreact to every little sell. Sure, having the Company present and active in the market will change that dynamic a bit, but we still need new buyers to get the market in this share to start to reflect the Company's true potential. I'm working on that.....

[emeraldzebra] 22/3/2022 09:10

......and can't help wondering - given recent events - and the buy back now underway - who on earth out there is STILL happy enough to sell at these levels. Just seems mad.

[echoridge] 22/3/2022 08:51

yeah, got that part of it right. thx LSOC. meantime, Enismore is more complicated. While Millennium are pretty much the world's biggest hedge fund 'index rebalance' player, Enismore has been in far longer and, as several of us have pointed out, were very likely behind the 'rat' short note and therefore are possibly going to stick around longer even though their 'liquidity event' - BVC being chucked out of the FTSE Russell - has now come and gone. In other words, these guys are likely a bad actor so we cannot be certain of their endgame yet. Meantime, back at headquarters, this is now the 3rd day of the Company's share buyback, and since the reporting rules are very strict in such cases, and since we have not seen an RNS either yesterday or today, we can safely assume that the Company are placing any buy orders at slightly below where the day's trade is taking place. My educated guess is that they've placed themselves at 51p as they assess the final stages of the rebalance nonsense and get a general feel for being a buyer in the market in the first place. If I'm right, then logic dictates that if we can hold these levels or better (ie., decent buying above 51p or thereabouts) at these relatively low volumes, then they will have to increase their bid in the market to around 52p and so on in the hopes of bringing in new players, increasing volumes and getting in some decent size. 44m shares will take a heck of a lot of time to buy otherwise....

[lsoc85] 22/3/2022 08:36

The short tracker states that Millenium closed their short position on 18 March 2022.

[rawdeal1] 21/3/2022 09:32

Thanks Guys

[paulisi] 21/3/2022 09:18

Another yo-yo day expected and then expect things to settle day bar share buy backs.

[the crypt] 21/3/2022 08:26

Good post FSE!!! Keep up the good work!

[fse] 20/3/2022 14:32

Institutions that run tracker funds also have other funds and dependent as to how they are held and structured its not clear if they would be forced to sell or transfer the shares to another fund that can hold them within their sphere.
Based on weighting allocation it appears some 3% or 12M shares would be directly effected, thats a max and it assumes that all of those shares had to be sold rather than transferred. Why would a fund not transfer shares they know are hit by extraneous circumstances rather than sell them to avoid the spread and extra costs involved.
Thats why I came up with an estimate of some 8M shares that were actually on the block.
I mostly agree with what echo outlines above but the volumes were higher than I would have thought so suspect there is another factor at play here.. another major seller.

Looking at fundamental valuations for this type of company against their peers. BATM are trading some 75% below average at @50p rather than 87.5p
The sum of the parts and enterprise value is harder to be precise and the value of some of the IP notional other than to observe they are in high growth areas.
Sum of the parts still looks north of 160p

The company buy back is I assume at their discretion and they passed a resolution to buy up to a certain amount of shares and there is no time frame given. Its not in BATM interests at all to create a price spike , the market is very well capable of that without any help.

The index fiasco and false article was the final straw but The bulk of the slide was caused by extreme weakness in the tech sector with diagnostic companies particularly badly hit.
The composition of BATM interests was not accurately understood and still is not and they were branded by many solely as a Covid company.

The current chip shortage, covid restrictions, the WAR are all playing their part in depressing any business interests.

I do not margin trade, short sell etc etc. So will defer to others for analysis as to WTF went on here. I make a living from investing and have done since 1985, I ran my own business prior to that. I am not that old just got started very young in life and never worked for anyone else sold my company at 28.
What I can say is that FMV for this company is @87p IMO
They ought to be trading >120p so we have a long way to go to get back to reasonable.

[car1pet] 20/3/2022 13:30

The 12m wasn't a single trade. It was 12m uncrossed trades at the end of day.

[rawdeal1] 20/3/2022 12:28

The thing that I'm not understanding is ..... if these funds are closing their shorts, that means they have to BUY back the shares. If they're doing this and BATM are BUYing their own shares .... that's alot of BUYing. So, theorectically the price should be zooming north .... so, why is it not ?