Barratt Developments Share Discussion Threads

[beckers2008] 28/9/2023 20:28

Sikhthetech,

Your dire Keir rag c&p is days old, lol!
You really must keep up...Trouble over on TLY, your only holding playing up, your down another 50% since I told you to sell at 14p, let alone at 40p, lol!

Tell me, mug-punter, when is this over 5 year predicted house price, 40% peak to trough coming?
Not this year, lol, just lol!

You have lost the argument.

[shrout] 28/9/2023 17:52

Maybe it´s this..

[shrout] 28/9/2023 16:47

The whole sector is well down today. Pretty sure they didn´t all go ex-dividend.

Something appears to have spooked them.. can´t say I know what.

[gswredland] 28/9/2023 16:26

Thanks 888

[888icb] 28/9/2023 16:16

Yes it did go ex dividend today. The problem with those houses was known in June. Today’s fall is because it has gone ex dividend.

[death by donut] 28/9/2023 16:12

More to do with the knock down price of some houses I think.DbD :-)

[gswredland] 28/9/2023 15:56

Did this go ex dividend today please?

[sikhthetech] 28/9/2023 12:51

Spotted by a fellow poster, WFL1970, on TW thread

New homes to be demolished and rebuilt due to problems with foundations

[blackhorse23] 25/9/2023 11:42

Sell here & buy WJG , you will make 500% gain end of the year

[beckers2008] 20/9/2023 09:50

Sikhthetech,

Have you seen the change in the swaps curve?

You probably don't know WTF I'm talking about, lol, just lol!

[volsung] 20/9/2023 08:19

Seems to be doing ok

[ny boy] 07/9/2023 21:55

Next year will be worse

[sikhthetech] 06/9/2023 13:33

Tornado

"I think with the election next year the Help to Buy scheme will be back on the table."

I agree the parties might promise something given the GE.
However, it's too late. The Tories should have announced something given H2B ended last Oct. That's thousands of potential buyers lost.


I can't see them offering a new Help to Buy scheme on the same terms.
After the initial 5 yr interest free period the homebuyer pays CPI + 1.75%. It's common knowledge as to what happened to CPI, the govn certainly wasn't expecting it and hence explains why the H2B scheme was withdrawn.

I think H2B is toxic and will lead to claims against the providers. PPI mk 2.

[jugears] 06/9/2023 13:24

Tornado, most people that used help to buy didn't need it so why bring it back,Its a bit like PPI, over 70% of all claimants new that they were paying for it but still made a claim!!!!! something that should be made compulsory on all loans & mortgages IMO!

[tornado12] 06/9/2023 12:20

I think with the election next year the Help to Buy scheme will be back on the table. Any new government needs to stimulate the HB market as is fundamental to voters ! I am a firm hold and add more if and when it reaches sub 350p. Need a 3 yr view here and patience

[sikhthetech] 06/9/2023 11:58

The update says it all. All as expected.

Demand falling.
Affordability a major problem.
They expecting uncertain trading backdrop in fy24.
They going to focus on incentives to increase sales. Incentives cost thousands of pounds reduce the profits.
Given New Builds command a premium, can be 20%, and as house prices continue to fall then homebuyers would soon be in negative equity.

The company/sector newsflow has been as predicted.

The Help to Buy scheme ended last Oct and so there would have been a rush to take up the scheme before then. HBs where homebuyers used the H2B scheme had to complete by spring this year.

"Our net private reservation rate in FY23 was 0.55 (FY22: 0.81). The decline across FY23 reflected a significant deterioration in trading following the fiscal event in September 2022, which continued to the end of the calendar year and was also impacted by the closure of the Help to Buy scheme, which closed to new reservations on 31 October 2022."


sikhthetech - 12 Oct 2022 - 20:42:40 - 2666 of 2794
<...>
The time to buy will be once there's clarity on all the challenges, interest rate rises/direction, inflation direction, govn providing some clarity..

Dividend yields are very deceiving when there's so much uncertainty and potential housing market crash. I expect HBs will want to conserve cash during a housing market crash, so expect some/all HBs to cut divis.

<...>
Watch the demand fall and the supply increase.. it snowballs..
;-)



sikhthetech - 25 Aug 2022 - 14:28:32 - 2468 of 2794
<...>
Affordability is a major problem. Energy price rises and Oct price cap will be announced tomorrow.
Interest rate rises due to inflationary pressures.
Deep recession fears, job losses leading to again affordability.

Last date to use Help to buy fast approaching.

Homeowners in severe mortgage debt rising so mortgage repossessions will rise..

[jugears] 06/9/2023 11:20

PORCH, Weren't Bdev heavily indebted prior to the financial crisis just like TW? If dividends are suspended which I doubt then you can expect them to be a lot higher when the next cycle begins as will all builders, with housing association cutting new home builds by 20% & councils cutting back,then the private sales sector will see an even bigger demand, IMO the trading update has been much better than I expected & with nearly 50 years of successful investing behind me (& 50 years as a supplier to the housing industry) I would say that house builders will return the biggest amount to share holders in the next 5-10 years than any other sector, with the cut in new house production since Covid & demand increasing year on year(Even if people are currently holding of from buying) I would say once we are in the new housing cycle house prices will rise rapidly, as will profits & after every recession in the last 50 years the housing sector has been the quickest to return to strong profits & that is because buyers don't go away they sit & wait & the longer the down turn the more people you have sitting & waiting!

[vas007] 06/9/2023 11:14

I bought in, this morning,expecting a small raise before the ex-dividend .

[vas007] 06/9/2023 11:03

Thanks 4 the update.

[porsche1945] 06/9/2023 10:19

If you want to know where this is going look at it’s chart for 2007 to 2014, altho likely to be worse this time as they are having to pump rates into a recession, buy in the money Puts exp late 2024, will abso print. Does anybody actually buy U.K. shares anymore anyway? Brexit basket case. For shorting and trading purposes only. Expect dividend to be suspended before the end of the year. Dogshxt banks and financials likely to be a screaming short as well with garbage like lloyds massively exposed to housing sector and the rest getting wiped out by higher yields lower bond prices ( like Phnx )