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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Barratt Developments Plc LSE:BDEV London Ordinary Share GB0000811801 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  3.90 0.85% 463.70 462.40 462.60 465.70 457.00 457.90 9,227,099 16:35:24
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Household Goods & Home Construction 4,811.7 812.2 64.5 7.2 4,742

Barratt Developments Share Discussion Threads

Showing 23201 to 23225 of 23275 messages
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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
13/10/2022
11:59
Interest rates on Gilts falling sharply on reports of the next Kwasi/Truss moves (or possibly backtracking)Regardless, the share prices across the sector are way undervalued and so heavily shorted right now that it doesn't really need any news for these to rise, just a sense of unease from the shorters...
lafiamma
13/10/2022
11:48
Yeah, what caused this rise?
gill17
13/10/2022
11:44
Shorters have just been caught short...
lafiamma
13/10/2022
11:21
I agree STT that this recession is far from done, and there could be downward pressure on pretty much all sectors, however the average recession in the UK since WW2 has lasted 16 months.

There are good reasons why this one is likely to be longer and deeper, COVID, Brexit and government madness.

That said, Truss and co are having to learn very fast that being in power doesn't mean just doing whatever the hell you like.

This stock was trading around 900p just pre-Covid, and has lost a substantial amount in recent months.

And it's a good point that 10pc yield can on occasion be a red flag. Unless you have substantial cash reserves and a strong, resilient balance sheet, that is, as here. They wouldn't be accompanying that yield with a buyback unless they felt very assured about these factors

Of course business has been hit in some areas, but everything has its price, and here, or lower, is in my opinion fully factored in.

The statement was better (or less bad, if that's your take) than most predicted, given how far the share price has already fallen, and while, as all, they're not immune to a market crash, they're in a far better financial position than most to weather such a period.

Anything around this mark (325p) or lower, and I think long term investors can start accumulating with reasonable confidence.

microscope
13/10/2022
11:17
My daughter and her fiance are buying a property in London for £775,000 (FTB). They have considered pulling out and spending 150K less, but arranging a new mortgage will be considerably higher repayments than the 3.4% they have currently. The have looked at all the options but are trying to exchange this week as they want to move on with their lives.
gill17
13/10/2022
10:42
I struggle with peoples stupidity at times. What did you expect to happen to new reservations in the last few weeks? Is the fact they are down hugely surprising? Just don't grasp how peoples lives have to go on. I have a friend who has had an offer on a 1m+ property accepted in the last month or so. He's not particularly thinking about backing out even though he expects prices to fall. The same will apply to a lot of people. Lending markets need to calm down. Once they find a stable level circa 4-5% then its back off to the races. I would expect overseas cash buyers to step up to plate as well. 15% of london buyers are cash buyers according to BDEV. With pound so weak would expect that rate to pick up.
horndean eagle
13/10/2022
09:11
Figures out by the European court of auditors show Britain's Brexit bill growing fast with interest rates increasing. Having paid down the divorce bill to 42Bn in 2020 and 37Bn 2021. It is on target to cost everyman, woman and child in the UK £900 each. Defiantly a price worth paying to give up your rights to live and work in Europe, and making our importing and exporting costs far more expensive and complicated and certainly nice not to have the right to return any immigrants to the first country of transport too as they arrive on our stony kent beaches. (1000 on Sunday alone). Excellent value, really enjoying the benefits of it all. How about you ?
my retirement fund
12/10/2022
22:27
I'd forget looking at the dividend yield once it goes over 10% it's in the red zone either the share price recovers or they start cutting the dividend then it just snowballs until it finds a bottom. The markets abandon ship when they start cutting dividends. This has already crashed -60% from the high from January 2022. All housebuilders, leisure and retail blue chips have crashed those are the main drivers of the UK economy flat on their backs. With the Fed still hiking it's impossible to get policies in place to kick start a recovery. Pretty grim at the moment.
creditcrunchies
12/10/2022
19:47
microscope12 Oct '22 - 20:21 - 2663 of 2666

Hello, so i see sunshine must be shorting here too. Recessions don't last that long. Looking at this myself, apparently yield massive



///////////////

Lol

Never shorted any stock.

It took no less than 25 years for America to recover the 1929 Wall St crash.

sunshine today
12/10/2022
19:42
Micro,

The time to buy will be once there's clarity on all the challenges, interest rate rises/direction, inflation direction, govn providing some clarity..

Dividend yields are very deceiving when there's so much uncertainty and potential housing market crash. I expect HBs will want to conserve cash during a housing market crash, so expect some/all HBs to cut divis.


Watch the number of homeowners in severe mortgage debt/repossessions and auction listings...

Watch the demand fall and the supply increase.. it snowballs..
;-)


The NI tax increase has been reversed, income tax reduced. The remaining still apply.

sikhthetech20 Feb '22 - 15:26 - 5884 of 5899 Edit
<...>
When the housing market crashes, no HB is immune from the crash. Likewise, listed HBs are not immune from stockmarket falls or movements.

Govn support, provided during pandemic, has ended. Repossessions which were stopped during pandemic are legal again.
Around 30k homeowners in severe mortgage debt.
Inflationary pressure, interest rate rises, NI rises, Council tax rises, energy price

sikhthetech
12/10/2022
19:38
They reported a huge drop in reservations, which is a major concern.

Plus with Help to Buy ending to new applications at end of this month, that number should fall going forward.


"Reflecting the slower reservation rate, total forward sales as of October 9, 2022, totalled 13,314 homes compared to 15,393 last year at a value of £3,603.1mln (2021: £3,936.6mln)."

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/995106/barratt-developments-reports-fall-in-private-reservations-as-economic-concerns-bite-995106.html


Director buys and buy backs wouldn't stop a housing market crash.

sikhthetech
12/10/2022
19:21
Sunshine

Please don’t make stuff up. Lenders will prefer new build since energy efficient and therefore greater demand.

Bottom line is that there is a chronic shortage of housing and people have to live somewhere. House prices will be underpinned by comparable cost of renting.

ghhghh
12/10/2022
19:21
Hello, so i see sunshine must be shorting here too. Recessions don't last that long. Looking at this myself, apparently yield massive.

Nice!

microscope
12/10/2022
19:13
Dream on.

I doubt if they had a single net reservation over the last two weeks.


The lenders require a good 12% off of the price of new properties before they will lend.

They don’t want the premium risk of a new home on their books.

sunshine today
12/10/2022
19:09
Important part is they have said they will meet forecasts for this year. Their year end is June so obviously they have a lot tucked away. Another 70p of earnings. I think they can adjust during the period. Pent up demand won't go away. It will come back when rates have calmed down. Worth bearing in mind section 106 contributions will get re-negotiated if prices fall so there is actually a lot more slack re falling prices than is apparent. Obviously cutting down land buying will turn more of the tnav into cash. They have land creditors but will have worked their way through most of them by year end and they have said they expect cash of 800m by then. That is after dividend and the other 150m of buyback they have promised. Also worth bearing in mind they won't be facing much competition on land in due course and will be able to fill the hopper with really low priced deals. Self balancing mechanism which pays off during the next up cycle.
horndean eagle
12/10/2022
18:11
You buy at the bottom of a recession / depression

5 - 7 years time

sunshine today
12/10/2022
18:02
All depends on how deep is this coming recession.
divmad
12/10/2022
17:13
Always first sector to bounce in a bear market. I am not going to rush into it, but this company is now yielding over 10pc.... Won't be long now folks.... buyback too..... bad news priced in.....

Fasten seat belts.... may not need to brace brace when this lifts off.....

Shorters won't be around much longer

difference
12/10/2022
15:38
But the share price already discounts all this.

We need to get through the 10 yr Gilt turmoil this week. Everything is being decimated, it’s not just house builders. Airlines, JET2 at 660p! Property companies trading at over 50% discount to NAV. Lots of companies trading at 7 year lows.

This is a full on bear market and typical for October. Hopefully sentiment will reverse going into November for the usual Xmas rally.

Markets are grossly oversold and overdue a bounce, even if a dead cat. Just need a bit of good inflation date or the Fed/BoE stating that not going to crash the economy, that they are now factoring in asset price falls into the forward curve….

ghhghh
12/10/2022
14:23
That's a huge drop in reservations..


Trading update

In the period our net private reservations(2) per average week were 188 (FY22: 281) and net private reservations per active outlet per average week of 0.55 (FY22: 0.85; FY21: 0.87; FY20: 0.72). (Appendix 1).

The private reservation rate in the period reflects customer response to increased wider economic uncertainty, where growing cost of living concerns have been compounded by increased mortgage interest rates and reduced mortgage availability.


Plus H2B closes to new applications at end of this month, so further drop off in H2B activity going forward.


"In addition we have limited availability of homes for early occupation given the strength of our forward order book and we have also seen the expected reduction in Help to Buy activity, which accounted for 12% of private reservations in the period (FY22: 21%; FY21: 51%; FY20: 45%)."

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/barratt-developments-BDEV/share-news/Barratt-Developments-PLC-Barratt-Developments-PLC/89272268

sikhthetech
12/10/2022
14:15
Trading on a PE of 3.5 and at 0.65 NAV. Has contracted forward sales of 64% to mid 2023.

Unlike Covid they have time to adjust business to lower volumes.

Lower volumes = less inflationary pressures which which help partly offset narrowing margins. It will also prop up prices.

The Media are obsessed with 2 year and 5 year fixed but everyone knows that only an idiot fixes at the top.

Buyers will still be lined up but like vultures, they will reckon that say 10% off the price more than compensates for higher short term interest rates. The bounce will be quick. The Media compare affordability to 10 - 30 years ago but nowadays it’s a different market, many new mortgages are funded by both partners. The stats don’t factor this in.

Job security obviously a big factor.

All boils down to how much bad news is now priced in. When house prices are perceived to have bottomed HB’s will re-rate to growth and PE’s of over 10 and premiums to NAV. The lower prices go, the greater the re-rating (ie PE/premium)

Hence Barratts could easily write off £1bn and shares re-rate upwards!

ghhghh
12/10/2022
14:14
1/3 and the last two weeks ????
sunshine today
12/10/2022
14:06
New home reservations drop by a third at Barratt, as it warns of a 'less certain outlook' as rising mortgage rates and living costs hit the property market


https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-11306449/Barratt-reveals-certain-outlook-rising-living-costs-hit-housebuilding-sector.html

smurfy2001
12/10/2022
14:02
There you go, HBs reporting slowing sales.
House prices falling.
More and more media reporting slowdown, housing market crash/slump.
as expected.

Says it all.


Demand for new-build homes cooling fast, says Barratt
https://www.ft.com/content/44277228-baf8-4bf5-bf47-5193bf959e91


Barratt reports slump in new home orders as mortgage rates rise
Shares slide after developer warns of ‘less certain’ outlook as housing market hit by jump in borrowing costs
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/12/barratt-reports-slump-in-new-home-orders-mortgage-rates-rise-housing-market


Barratt Developments reports fall in private reservations as economic concerns bite
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/995106/barratt-developments-reports-fall-in-private-reservations-as-economic-concerns-bite-995106.html

sikhthetech
12/10/2022
13:28
There won’t be anymore buybacks or dividends you muppet, cash will now have to be preserved, do you have any idea how quickly it goes bad for builders once market turns, we are now in a new 7/8 year bear cycle for housing, Barratt will be raising capital before this is done.
porsche1945
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